AGI Thought Experiment with Dwarkesh Patel, Noah Smith, and Erik Torenberg | From the a16z Podcast

In this episode from the a16z Podcast, Dwarkesh Patel, Noah Smith, and Erik Torenberg discuss AGI, exploring how AI might transform labor markets, economic growth, space exploration, and geopolitical dynamics in the coming decades. – SPONSORS: Zcash Zcash offers private, encrypted digital money that protects users from AI-powered surveillance by governments and corporations, allowing people to store and spend wealth without compromising their privacy or freedom.  Try it out. Download Dashi wallet  and follow at Gen Z cash to learn more. Notion AI meeting notes lives right in Notion, everything you capture, whether that's meetings, podcasts, interviews, conversations, live exactly where you plan, build, and get things done.  Here's an exclusive offer for our listeners. Try one month for free at notion.com/lp/econ102 NetSuite More than 42,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. Download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine learning: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://netsuite.com/102⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Found  Found provides small business owners tools to track expenses, calculate taxes, manage cashflow, send invoices and more. Open a Found account for free at https://found.com/econ102 - Shownotes brought to you by Notion AI Meeting Notes - try one month for free at notion.com/lp/econ102 Defining AGI: Noah and Dwarkesh begin by establishing working definitions of Artificial General Intelligence - from systems that "can do almost any job at least as well as humans" to more near-term AI that "can automate 95% of white-collar work" Current AI Limitations: Present systems lack crucial continual learning capabilities that would allow them to build context over time and improve with experience like humans do Historical Parallels: The conquistadors' conquest of the Aztec and Inca empires provides a cautionary tale about information asymmetry and how technological advantages can lead to domination AI Cooperation: The hosts discuss the need for US-China cooperation on AI safety, similar to the "red telephone" during the Cold War, to prevent AI-related sabotage AI Market Competition: Analysis of the surprising trend of increasing rather than decreasing competitors at the AI frontier, despite rising costs of training frontier models Network Effects vs. Technical Capability: Discussion of whether brand recognition (like "ChatGPT") or technological advantages will determine market leaders Quotes: "If you make the best AI, it gets even better. So why enter that? That's the big question." - Noah Smith LINKS: The a16z podcast: https://open.spotify.com/show/5bC65RDvs3oxnLyqqvkUYX Noahpinion newsletter: https://noahpinion.substack.com/ Dwarkesh podcast: https://www.dwarkesh.com/ Erik Torenberg's Substack: https://eriktorenberg.substack.com/ Got questions for Noah and Erik to answer on air? Send them to Econ102@Turpentine.co - FOLLOW ON X: @noahpinion @eriktorenberg @turpentinemedia