2024 Big Ideas: Voice-First Apps, AI Moats, Never-Ending Games, and Anime Takes Off

We’re sharing an episode from ChinaTalk that dives into one of the biggest recent reversals in U.S. tech policy.The U.S. banned Nvidia’s H20 AI chips to China in April. Now, just months later, they’re being sold—with a 15% export fee. What happened? Why the reversal? And what does it mean for the future of AI competition between the U.S. and China?Chris Miller—author of Chip War—and Lennart Heim from RAND join ChinaTalk host Jordan Schneider to unpack the policy flip-flop, why China is publicly downplaying interest in the H20, and why high-bandwidth memory and semiconductor manufacturing tools may be even more important than the Nvidia chips themselves.Resources:Listen to more from ChinaTalk: https://link.chtbl.com/chinatalkCheck out the Horizon Fellowship to work in DC on emerging tech policy issues like AI chip export controls: https://horizonpublicservice.org/applications-open-for-2026-horizon-fellowship-cohort/Outro Music: It's a Shame, The Spinners, 1970

14 Aug 1h 6min

a16z partners Olivia and Justine Moore unpack the latest in consumer AI including: - Grok’s “Imagine” and its instant, social-first creative tools- Google’s Genie 3 and the future of 3D worlds- GPT-5: what’s new, what’s missing, and why some want their old chatbot back- AI-generated music from ElevenLabs- Olivia’s vibecoded Jensen Huang selfie app Timecodes: 0:00 Introduction & This Week's Topics0:24 Grok Imagine: Social AI Image & Video Generation4:48 GPT-5 Release & GPT-4 Deprecation5:36 Comparing GPT-5 and GPT-4: Coding vs. Personality9:13 AI for Mental Health: Illinois Law & Industry Impact12:29 Genie 3: Interactive World Models from Google16:53 ElevenLabs Music Model: Licensed AI Music Generation19:16 Vibecoding: Consumer Experiments & Platform Evolution24:14 The Future of Vibecoding & AI Tools27:05 Conclusions  Resources:Find Olivia on X: https://x.com/omooretweetsFind Justine on X: https://x.com/venturetwinsRead Anish and Justine’s  vibecoding post: https://a16z.com/specialized-app-gen-platforms/ Stay Updated: Let us know what you think: https://ratethispodcast.com/a16zFind a16z on Twitter: https://twitter.com/a16zFind a16z on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/a16zSubscribe on your favorite podcast app: https://a16z.simplecast.com/Follow our host: https://x.com/eriktorenbergPlease note that the content here is for informational purposes only; should NOT be taken as legal, business, tax, or investment advice or be used to evaluate any investment or security; and is not directed at any investors or potential investors in any a16z fund. a16z and its affiliates may maintain investments in the companies discussed. For more details please see a16z.com/disclosures.

13 Aug 27min

Fresh off the announcement of his move from Shopify to a16z, Alex Danco joins TBPN to talk about the “trade deal” that brought him here and his mission to make the firm’s written content truly world class.He discusses why he believes writing still matters in the age of AI, how great prose can act as “power transfer technology” for founders, and why he’s betting on the overlooked art of speechwriting. Alex also reflects on his years as a founder, investor, and longtime blogger, and shares the formats he’s most excited to explore, from deal memos to launch speeches. Timecodes: 0:00 Joining a16z0:41 The Power of Writing & Speechwriting2:45 Reflections on Blogging & Communication5:10 Writing as Power Transfer Technology6:46 Formats & Content at a16z8:09 The Underrated Art of Speechwriting11:21 The Evolution of Blogging & Audience12:23 Looking Forward: Brand & Legacy Resources:Find Alex on X: https://x.com/Alex_DancoWatch TBPN: https://www.tbpn.com/Follow TBPN on X: https://x.com/tbpn Stay Updated: Let us know what you think: https://ratethispodcast.com/a16zFind a16z on Twitter: https://twitter.com/a16zFind a16z on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/a16zSubscribe on your favorite podcast app: https://a16z.simplecast.com/Follow our host: https://x.com/eriktorenbergPlease note that the content here is for informational purposes only; should NOT be taken as legal, business, tax, or investment advice or be used to evaluate any investment or security; and is not directed at any investors or potential investors in any a16z fund. a16z and its affiliates may maintain investments in the companies discussed. For more details please see a16z.com/disclosures.

13 Aug 15min

There’s been a wave of M&A deals lately - Meta and Scale, Windsurf and Google - and a lot of it points to something bigger: how regulation, capital, and innovation are colliding in 2025.In this episode Erik Torenberg brings together Steven Sinofsky, former Microsoft Executive and Balaji Srinivasan, founder of the Network School, and author of the Network State to break it all down. From acquihires to “acquifires,” from FTC crackdowns to the deeper battle between the state and the network, this is a sharp conversation on the future of tech and power. ResourcesFind Balaji on X: https://x.com/balajisFind Steven on X: https://x.com/stevesiLearn more about The Network State: https://thenetworkstate.comLearn more about The Network School: https://ns.com Stay Updated: Let us know what you think: https://ratethispodcast.com/a16zFind a16z on Twitter: https://twitter.com/a16zFind a16z on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/a16zSubscribe on your favorite podcast app: https://a16z.simplecast.com/Follow our host: https://x.com/eriktorenbergPlease note that the content here is for informational purposes only; should NOT be taken as legal, business, tax, or investment advice or be used to evaluate any investment or security; and is not directed at any investors or potential investors in any a16z fund. a16z and its affiliates may maintain investments in the companies discussed. For more details please see a16z.com/disclosures.

11 Aug 1h 17min

In this episode, Marc Andreessen joins TBPN for an unfiltered conversation spanning everything from ads in LLMs to why Apple’s AI strategy may be risky for anyone not named Apple.Marc breaks down the current state of AI: why open source is resurging, how foundational research is (or isn’t) turning into product, and whether we’ve hit the moment when phones start to fade as dominant platforms. He also shares his candid thoughts on Meta’s wearable wins, Vision Pro’s imperfections, and how humor and deep research are his two favorite use cases for AI today.Timecodes:0:00 Intro  2:41  The Pace of AI and Technology Cycles  4:03  Research vs. Productization in AI Companies  5:15  Apple’s Strategy: Last Mover Advantage  7:09  The Future Beyond Smartphones  10:23  Open Source AI: Progress and Challenges  13:49  Ads in AI: Business Models and User Experience  15:52  Legal Frameworks for AI and Data  17:53  Lightning Round: How Mark Uses AI  19:01  Breaking into Venture Capital in 2025  20:34  M&A, Survivorship Bias, and Company Resilience  ResourcesWatch TBPN: https://www.tbpn.com/Marc on X:   https://x.com/pmarcaMarc’s Substack: https://pmarca.substack.com/

8 Aug 37min

ChatGPT-5 just launched, marking a major milestone for OpenAI and the entire AI ecosystem.Fresh off the live stream, Erik Torenberg was joined in the studio by  three people who played key roles in making this model a reality:Christina Kim, Researcher at OpenAI, who leads the core models team on post-trainingIsa Fulford, Researcher at OpenAI, who leads deep research and the ChatGPT agent team on post-trainingSarah Wang, General Partner at a16z, who helped lead our investment in OpenAI since 2021They discuss what’s actually new in ChatGPT-5—from major leaps in reasoning, coding, and creative writing to meaningful improvements in trustworthiness, behavior, and post-training techniques.We also discuss:How GPT-5 was trained, including RL environments and why data quality matters more than everThe shift toward agentic workflows—what “agents” really are, why async matters, and how it’s empowering a new golden age of the “ideas guy”What GPT-5 means for builders, startups, and the broader AI ecosystem going forwardWhether you're an AI researcher, founder, or curious user, this is the deep-dive conversation you won't want to miss.Timecodes:0:00 ChatGPT Origins1:57 Model Capabilities & Coding Improvements4:00 Model Behaviors & Sycophancy6:15 Usage, Pricing & Startup Opportunities8:03 Broader Impact & AGI Discourse16:56 Creative Writing & Model Progress32:37 Training, Data & Reflections36:21 Company Growth & Culture41:39 Closing Thoughts & MissionResourcesFind Christina on X: https://x.com/christinahkimFind Isa on X: https://x.com/isafulfFind Sarah on X: https://x.com/sarahdingwangStay Updated: Let us know what you think: https://ratethispodcast.com/a16zFind a16z on Twitter: https://twitter.com/a16zFind a16z on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/a16zSubscribe on your favorite podcast app: https://a16z.simplecast.com/Follow our host: https://x.com/eriktorenbergPlease note that the content here is for informational purposes only; should NOT be taken as legal, business, tax, or investment advice or be used to evaluate any investment or security; and is not directed at any investors or potential investors in any a16z fund. a16z and its affiliates may maintain investments in the companies discussed. For more details please see a16z.com/disclosures

8 Aug 43min

What happens when a startup becomes a giant—and then has to reinvent itself all over again?In this episode, Martin Casado sits down with Raghu Raghuram (former CEO of VMware) and Jeetu Patel (President and CPO at Cisco) for a deep, tactical conversation on scaling, disruption, and navigating transformation from the inside. They share hard-won lessons from leading two of the most iconic infrastructure companies in tech—through waves like virtualization, cloud, containers, and now AI.They cover:How to keep innovation alive inside large companiesWhy the best companies operate with a founder’s mindset, even without foundersThe difference between selling to buyers vs. practitionersWhy the story is the strategy, and how to tell it at scaleHow Cisco is rebuilding its startup DNA in the age of AIIf you're building or leading through a major tech wave, this episode is a playbook. Timecodes:0:00 Introduction 2:02 Weapons of Mass Disruption: Abstractions, Business Models, and Cloud  5:57 Cisco’s Missed Cloud Wave & Resetting for Innovation  6:39 Operating Like a Startup: Speed, Scale, and Leadership  10:00 Go-to-Market Challenges: Fencing Off Innovation  11:04 Organic vs. Inorganic Growth: Lessons from VMware  12:04 The 10x Rule and Competing with Incumbents  14:39 Structuring for Disruption: Two-Pizza Teams and Ideal Customer Profiles  18:43 Storytelling as Strategy: Galvanizing Large Organizations  19:42 The AI Wave: Consumerization and Infrastructure Demands  25:34 Founders vs. Operators: Leading Transformations  31:47 Product-Led Organizations: From Sales to Product Focus  34:35 The Future of Infrastructure: AI, Market Size, and Vertical Integration  39:34 Timing, Market, Team, Product, Brand, and Scale  41:19 Authenticity, Opportunity, and Final Thoughts   Resources:Find Martin on X: https://x.com/martin_casadoFind Raghu on X: https://x.com/raghuraghuramFind Jeetu on X: https://x.com/jpatel41 Stay Updated: Let us know what you think: https://ratethispodcast.com/a16zFind a16z on Twitter: https://twitter.com/a16zFind a16z on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/a16zSubscribe on your favorite podcast app: https://a16z.simplecast.com/Follow our host: https://x.com/eriktorenbergPlease note that the content here is for informational purposes only; should NOT be taken as legal, business, tax, or investment advice or be used to evaluate any investment or security; and is not directed at any investors or potential investors in any a16z fund. a16z and its affiliates may maintain investments in the companies discussed. For more details please see a16z.com/disclosures.

6 Aug 42min

In this episode, Erik Torenberg is joined in the studio by Dwarkesh Patel and Noah Smith to explore one of the biggest questions in tech: what exactly is artificial general intelligence (AGI), and how close are we to achieving it?They break down:Competing definitions of AGI — economic vs. cognitive vs. “godlike”Why reasoning alone isn’t enough — and what capabilities models still lackThe debate over substitution vs. complementarity between AI and human laborWhat an AI-saturated economy might look like — from growth projections to UBI, sovereign wealth funds, and galaxy-colonizing robotsHow AGI could reshape global power, geopolitics, and the future of workAlong the way, they tackle failed predictions, surprising AI limitations, and the philosophical and economic consequences of building machines that think, and perhaps one day, act, like us. Timecodes: 0:00 Intro0:33 Defining AGI and General Intelligence2:38 Human and AI Capabilities Compared7:00 AI Replacing Jobs and Shifting Employment15:00 Economic Growth Trajectories After AGI17:15 Consumer Demand in an AI-Driven Economy31:00 Redistribution, UBI, and the Future of Income31:58 Human Roles and the Evolving Meaning of Work41:21 Technology, Society, and the Human Future45:43 AGI Timelines and Forecasting Horizons54:04 The Challenge of Predicting AI's Path57:37 Nationalization, Geopolitics, and the Global AI Race1:07:10 Brand and Network Effects in AI Dominance1:09:31 Final Thoughts  Resources: Find Dwarkesh on X: https://x.com/dwarkesh_spFind Dwarkesh on YT: https://www.youtube.com/c/DwarkeshPatelSubscribe to Dwarkesh’s Substack: https://www.dwarkesh.com/Find Noah on X: https://x.com/noahpinionSubscribe to Noah’s Substack: https://www.noahpinion.blog/ Stay Updated: Let us know what you think: https://ratethispodcast.com/a16zFind a16z on Twitter: https://twitter.com/a16zFind a16z on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/a16zSubscribe on your favorite podcast app: https://a16z.simplecast.com/Follow our host: https://x.com/eriktorenbergPlease note that the content here is for informational purposes only; should NOT be taken as legal, business, tax, or investment advice or be used to evaluate any investment or security; and is not directed at any investors or potential investors in any a16z fund. a16z and its affiliates may maintain investments in the companies discussed. For more details please see a16z.com/disclosures.

4 Aug 1h 1min