The Economics of AGI: Why Verification Is the New Scarcity w/ Christian Catalini

MIT economist Christian Catalini joins Ryan and David to unpack his new paper, "Some Simple Economics of AGI," which argues that the scarce resource in the AI economy is no longer intelligence but verification: the human capacity to check, judge, and certify that AI output is correct. Christian walks through the two cost curves reshaping every industry (cost to automate vs. cost to verify), explains why entry-level jobs are collapsing first through what he calls the "missing junior loop," why even top experts are unknowingly training their replacements (the "codifier's curse"), and maps out the three roles that survive the transition: Directors, Meaning Makers, and Liability Underwriters. --- 📣SPOTIFY PREMIUM RSS FEED | USE CODE: SPOTIFY24 https://bankless.cc/spotify-premium --- BANKLESS SPONSOR TOOLS: 🔮POLYMARKET | #1 PREDICTION MARKET https://bankless.cc/polymarket-podcast 🪐GALAXY | INSTITUTIONAL DIGITAL FINANCE https://bankless.cc/galaxy-podcast 🏅BITGET TRADFI | TRADE GOLD WITH USDT https://bankless.cc/bitget 🎯THE DEFI REPORT | ONCHAIN INSIGHTS https://thedefireport.io/bankless 🐇MEGAETH | 1ST REAL-TIME BLOCKCHAIN https://bankless.cc/megaeth --- TIMESTAMPS 0:00 Intro 3:42 The Low-Grade Panic 6:43 Who Gets Hit First, and Hardest? 13:06 Coding as Canary, or Exception? 16:21 Human Cognition Was the Binding Constraint 19:59 What Is Verification, Exactly? 29:10 The Codifier's Curse 31:21 The Expanding Iceberg: Non-Measurable Work 38:32 The Two Racing Cost Curves 41:59 Trojan Horse Externality 48:46 The Four Quadrants: Where Do You Want to Be? 54:12 Liability Underwriters and the Venture Capital Parallel 55:41 Directors: Navigating Unknown Unknowns 59:49 60-80% of Your Job Can Be Displaced 1:06:24 Button Pushers vs. Founders: The Great Resorting 1:12:08 The Luddite Risk: Political Backlash Against AI 1:17:30 What Companies and Investors Should Do 1:22:56 The Crypto Connection 1:25:11 Don't Panic: A Closing Playbook --- RESOURCES Christian Catalini https://x.com/ccatalini Some Simple Economics of AGI https://arxiv.org/html/2602.20946v2 Christian’s thread on his paper https://x.com/ccatalini/status/2026311784421036223 --- Not financial or tax advice. See our investment disclosures here: https://www.bankless.com/disclosures