Episide 144: Everybody's Knackered: Oil, Chips and Chokepoints

Steve, Tom and Jacob are back (with working microphones this time) to unpack a week where the cracks got harder to ignore.

The Iran ceasefire has collapsed, tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is running at a third of normal, and shipping insurance costs have jumped sevenfold. The lads explain why "oil" isn't one thing, why China's demand drop saved us last time, and why a genuine supply shock may still be creeping up on us.

Then it's over to Korea, where the stock market swung wildly all week and the CAPE ratio has bolted from 17 to 44 in twelve months. Compare that with Indonesia, Brazil and Turkey sitting near 10, and the case for emerging markets and commodities starts to write itself.

Plus: the AI earnings problem nobody wants to talk about, semiconductors now making up 20% of the S&P 500, what Buffett's IBM exit really tells us, and why margin debt at $1.5 trillion should have your attention. The title says it all: every country holds a chokepoint, and everybody's knackered.

Watch Your Edge: markets can go sideways for 15 years or more. The era of quick capital gains is over, and the game is shifting to income and yield.

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This podcast is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Total Money Management | AFSL 568642.

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