427: Super El Niño Is NOT a Guarantee of a Wet Winter with Gary Lezak

Super El Niño is developing, but that doesn’t automatically mean a wet winter or more snow for everyone. Gary Lezak joins Lauren today on the Cattle USA Daily Podcast to break down what this developing weather pattern actually means for producers across the Plains, Midwest and beyond. Gary explains why the LRC will be critical in determining where storm systems develop and when they arrive. He also looks at historical Super El Niño years, snowfall differences across the country, drought potential, first frost timing and why producers should wait for the new weather pattern to fully develop before drawing conclusions about the months ahead.

Links:

Weather 20/20 Dashboard Discount⁠ - https://www.weather2020.com/partner/cattle-usa
Substack - https://weather2020.substack.com/
The Global Predictor App ⁠- ⁠https://www.weather2020.com/global-predictor-mobile-app
Youtube⁠ -https://www.youtube.com/@Weather2020
Follow Gary on X ⁠- https://x.com/glezak
CattleUSA Insurance - https://info.cattleusainsurance.com/l/1102253/2025-06-04/288f5m
⁠CattleUSA Website - https://www.cattleusa.com/
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CattleUSA Media - https://www.cattleusamedia.com/
Lauren’s Instagram - https://www.instagram.com/_laurenmoylan/
Lauren’s Youtube - https://www.youtube.com/@Showboatmediaco
The Next Generation Podcast Website - https://www.thenextgenag.com/

Key Takeaways:

• Super El Niño does not automatically mean every region will be wetter
• The developing LRC will help determine where and when storm systems hit
• Historical Super El Niño winters have produced very different snowfall outcomes
• El Niño generally lowers drought probability across much of the Agriculture Belt
• The new weather pattern is expected to begin setting up in early October
• Producers should watch October and November for clues about the winter ahead
• Gary says it is still too early to confidently predict the first frost
• Every El Niño year is different, so historical patterns are not guarantees
• Patience will be important as the new LRC develops
• The first cycle of the new pattern could provide much clearer answers heading into winter

Chapters:

00:00 – Super El Niño & the Weather Pattern01:18 – The New LRC Is About to Begin03:01 – Gary’s New Weather Venture05:41 – Smile With Gary06:48 – What’s Happening Across the Plains08:37 – What Super El Niño Actually Means10:10 – What Past Super El Niños Tell Us12:00 – Why the LRC Matters13:00 – Does Super El Niño Mean More Moisture?14:01 – Don’t Believe Every Weather Prediction15:04 – What About the First Frost?15:15 – What Producers Should Watch Next16:10 – The Winter Forecast Ahead

Gary Lezak, Cattle USA Daily, Super El Niño, El Niño, weather forecast, winter weather, winter forecast, fall weather, LRC, Lezak Recurring Cycle, long-range weather, cattle weather, agriculture weather, ranch weather, Plains weather, Midwest weather, Kansas weather, Nebraska weather, Oklahoma weather, Colorado weather, drought outlook, snowfall forecast, rainfall forecast, first frost, freeze forecast, agricultural planning, cattle producers, farmers and ranchers, weather 2026