Why T-Mobile Is Scrubbing Starlink Before an ASTS Deal

Why T-Mobile Is Scrubbing Starlink Before an ASTS Deal

AST SpaceMobile's BlueBird 11 came in nominal and batch 3 is in orbit. Kook breaks down the ASTS T-Mobile deal bet and more.


Kook opens by reacting to the news that BlueBird 11 was nominal, walking through the competing theories about whether the satellite was stuck and why the deployment record for AST SpaceMobile stays perfect. He argues the flawless execution reflects a military-grade approach to testing and reliability, and covers the launch of batch 3 (BlueBirds 14, 15 and 16) on another SpaceX flight, with more launches expected soon.


Kook then lays out why he believes a T-Mobile deal is imminent, pointing to the completed MNO joint venture, T-Mobile scrubbing Starlink content from its website, new FCC filings, Grain spectrum, and the Ligado docket. He also explains why he sees Viasat and other would-be direct-to-cell competitors as lacking the people, prime contractors, designs and regulatory approvals to compete with ASTS.


The episode wraps with Sirius XM's COO joining the company, the vertical opportunity of tracking cows over direct-to-cell, satellites in the military kill chain, M&A hiring, and how ASTS stock has returned about 35% a year since the SPAC despite a 90% drawdown.


00:00 Introduction and sound check

00:38 BlueBird 11 nominal reaction

01:43 Perfect deployment record

04:01 The Kill Chain and military-grade assets

06:54 Abel's execution and team

08:56 Batch 3 launch BlueBird 14-16

10:54 Delays and the retail investor

12:31 Why competitors lack people

15:15 MNO joint venture and T-Mobile bet

17:19 T-Mobile scrubs Starlink

18:47 Mongolia and bear claims

21:22 Tracking cows and vertical TAM

24:57 Sirius XM COO joins ASTS

27:14 Spectrum, FCC and Ligado/Grain

30:03 Viasat leadership concerns

31:52 Iridium and Ligado docket

33:11 Satellites and the kill chain

36:18 M&A hiring and SpaceX

38:49 ASTS returns since the SPAC

40:30 Closing and stablecoin research


🎙️ Catch all episodes on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/5u6rTxenTvGw4STNbjswAk

👋 Connect with the host on X: https://x.com/thekookreport

👕 Get the Gear: https://spacemob.printify.me/


#astspacemobile #TMobile #BlueBird

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