Why Nations Fail, AI & Jobs, Economics as a Science

Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg discuss the new geopolitical dynamics in Asia and the Middle East, why demographics may mean waning conflict, and take a dive into Ireland’s wealth. Daffy is offering Econ 102 listeners a free $25 for the charity of their choice when they join: https://www.daffy.org/econ102We're hiring across the board at Turpentine and for Erik's personal team on other projects he's incubating. He's hiring a Chief of Staff, EA, Head of Special Projects, Investment Associate, and more. For a list of JDs, check out: eriktorenberg.com.– Sponsors: GIVEWELL | DAFFY | NETSUITEHave you ever wondered where your donation could have the most impact? GiveWell has now spent over 15 years researching charitable organizations and only directs funding to the highest impact opportunities they’ve found in global health and poverty alleviation. Make informed decisions about high-impact giving. If you’ve never donated through GiveWell before, you can have your donation matched up to $100 before the end of the year, or as long as matching funds last. To claim your match, go to https://givewell.org and pick “Podcast” + enter Econ 102 at checkout.Daffy is the most modern and accessible donor-advised fund, making it easier to put money aside for charity. You can make your tax-deductible contributions all at once or set aside a little each week or month. And you don’t just have to donate cash, you can easily contribute stocks, ETFs, or crypto. Plus, you never have to track receipts from your donations again. It’s free to get started and Econ 102 listeners get $25 towards the charity of their choice. Daffy is offering Econ 102 listeners a free $25 for the charity of their choice when they join Daffy https://www.daffy.org/econ102NetSuite has 25 years of providing financial software for all your business needs. More than 36,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, gaining visibility and control over their financials, inventory, HR, eCommerce, and more. If you’re looking for an ERP platform head to NetSuite http://netsuite.com/102 and download your own customized KPI checklist.– Econ 102 is a part of the Turpentine podcast network. To learn more: www.turpentine.co–RECOMMENDED PODCAST:Odd Lots is a Bloomberg podcast hosted by Joe Weisenthal and Tracy Alloway. Each week they speak with the perfect guest to explore the most interesting topics in finance, markets and economics.https://www.bloomberg.com/oddlots–RECOMMENDED PODCAST: Every week investor and writer of the popular newsletter The Diff, Byrne Hobart, and co-host Erik Torenberg discuss today’s major inflection points in technology, business, and markets – and help listeners build a diversified portfolio of trends and ideas for the future. Subscribe to “The Riff” with Byrne Hobart and Erik Torenberg: https://link.chtbl.com/theriff–LINKS:- Noah Smith, How Ireland Got So Rich https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/how-ireland-got-so-rich- Noah Smith, The Middle East is Getting Older: https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/the-middle-east-is-getting-older–X / TWITTER:@noahpinion (Noah)@eriktorenberg (Erik)–TIMESTAMPS:(00:00) Episode Preview(01:47) Noah’s reflections from the Kilkenomics Festival​​(02:44) Why and how Ireland got rich(11:14) What is the legacy of Brexit?(13:16) Pro and counter arguments for Brexit(15:27) Sponsors: GiveWell | Daffy(18:10) Noah on the 2nd Cold War(24:20) Why Asia is more important to the US than the Middle East(29:57) Sponsor: NetSuite(31:04) Iran in the Israel-Gaza conflict(34:45) Predictions for the next decade in Middle East(41:17) On fertility rates (45:51) Where would Israel be in 10 years?(50:13) The endless pressures on Israel(51:07) What would need to be true for Noah to be bullish on Israel?(57:08) Countering the collaboration between Gaza and Israel

8 Marras 20231h 2min

Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg discuss the state of the economy, whether tech and the VC ecosystem are doing well or facing a 'rolling recession', and unpack assumptions about wealth in the United States. Make informed decision for high impact donations with GiveWell, which is offering Econ 102 listeners donation matching up to $100. To claim your match, go to givewell.org ➡️ pick “Podcast” enter Econ 102 at checkout.We're hiring across the board at Turpentine and for Erik's personal team on other projects he's incubating. He's hiring a Chief of Staff, EA, Head of Special Projects, Investment Associate, and more. For a list of JDs, check out: eriktorenberg.com.–Sponsors: GIVEWELL | DAFFY | NETSUITEHave you ever wondered where your donation could have the most impact? GiveWell has now spent over 15 years researching charitable organizations and only directs funding to the HIGHEST-IMPACT opportunities they’ve found in global health and poverty alleviation. Make informed decisions about high-impact giving. If you’ve never donated through GiveWell before, you can have your donation matched up to $100 before the end of the year, or as long as matching funds last. To claim your match, go to givewell.org and pick “Podcast” and enter Econ 102 at checkout.Daffy is the most modern and accessible donor-advised fund, making it easier to put money aside for charity. You can make your tax-deductible contributions all at once or set aside a little each week or month. And you don't just have to donate cash, you can easily contribute stocks, ETFs, or crypto. Plus, you never have to track receipts from your donations again. It’s free to get started and Econ 102 listeners get $25 towards the charity of their choice. Daffy is offering Econ 102 listeners a free $25 for the charity of their choice when they join Daffy https://www.daffy.org/econ102NetSuite has 25 years of providing financial software for all your business needs. More than 36,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, gaining visibility and control over their financials, inventory, HR, eCommerce, and more. If you’re looking for an ERP platform head to NetSuite ✅ http://netsuite.com/102 and download your own customized KPI checklist.–Econ 102 is a part of the Turpentine podcast network. To learn more: www.turpentine.co–X / TWITTER:@noahpinion (Noah)@eriktorenberg (Erik)–TIMESTAMPS:(00:00) Episode Preview(01:05) The Rolling Recession?(03:55) When Are Venture Capitalists gonna get rich again?(06:15) Will rate cuts go down?(08:15) Factory Model of Venture Capital(10:20) Crypto's correlation to the markets(14:15) Sector specific shocks screwing the economy(16:50) Sponsors: GiveWell | Daffy(20:00) The temperature metaphor in economics(22:41) Regular Americans are getting richer(25:02) How accurate are the measurement of inequality statistics in terms of reflecting true inequality?(30:15) Why inequality might be good in economics(36:55) What mechanisms led to inequality going down(41:00) Skyrocketing prices and poor regulation of markets(47:00) Piketty's arguments on inequalityThis show is produced by Turpentine: a network of podcasts, newsletters, and more, covering technology, business, and culture — all from the perspective of industry insiders and experts. We’re launching new shows every week, and we’re looking for industry-leading sponsors — if you think that might be you and your company, email us at erik@turpentine.co.

1 Marras 202349min

Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg discuss Marc Andreessen’s Techno-Optimist Manifesto (a16z), the last waves of economic innovation, energy advancement, and predict the next wave of productivity gains from private and government-enabled innovation. Daffy is offering Econ 102 listeners a free $25 for the charity of their choice when they join: https://www.daffy.org/econ102We're hiring across the board at Turpentine and for Erik's personal team on other projects he's incubating. He's hiring a Chief of Staff, EA, Head of Special Projects, Investment Associate, and more. For a list of JDs, check out: eriktorenberg.com.–Sponsors: GIVEWELL | DAFFY | NETSUITE Have you ever wondered where your donation could have the most impact? GiveWell has now spent over 15 years researching charitable organizations and only directs funding to the highest impact opportunities they’ve found in global health and poverty alleviation. Make informed decisions about high-impact giving. If you’ve never donated through GiveWell before, you can have your donation matched up to $100 before the end of the year, or as long as matching funds last. To claim your match, go to givewell.org and pick “Podcast” and enter Econ 102 at checkout. Daffy is the most modern and accessible donor-advised fund, making it easier to put money aside for charity. You can make your tax-deductible contributions all at once or set aside a little each week or month. And you don’t just have to donate cash, you can easily contribute stocks, ETFs, or crypto. Plus, you never have to track receipts from your donations again. It’s free to get started and Econ 102 listeners get $25 towards the charity of their choice. Daffy is offering Econ 102 listeners a free $25 for the charity of their choice when they join Daffy https://www.daffy.org/econ102 NetSuite has 25 years of providing financial software for all your business needs. More than 36,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, gaining visibility and control over their financials, inventory, HR, eCommerce, and more. If you’re looking for an ERP platform head to NetSuite http://netsuite.com/102 and download your own customized KPI checklist.–Econ 102 is a part of the Turpentine podcast network. To learn more: www.turpentine.co–LINKS:- Noah Smith, Thoughts on Techno-Optimism https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/thoughts-on-techno-optimism - Marc Andreessen’s Techno-Optimist Manifesto https://a16z.com/the-techno-optimist-manifesto/- Robert Gordon, The Rise and Fall of Economic Growth https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Rise_and_Fall_of_American_Growth#:~:text=Gordon%20considers%20that%20the%20apparent,growth%20between%201920%20and%201970.- Miles Kimball (Econ 102’s actual Econ 102 professor) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Miles_Kimball–X / TWITTER:@noahpinion (Noah)@eriktorenberg (Erik)–TIMESTAMPS:(00:00) Episode Preview(01:25) Reaction to Marc Andreessen’s techno-optimism manifesto(04:22) Where Noah disagrees: technology does not always empower individuals(08:05) How to overcome the natural incentive problem of innovation(11:55) Economist Robert Gordon and no analog to step changes in innovation(15:50) Sponsors: Daffy | NetSuite(21:50) Nuclear energy and other energy advancements(29:40) GDP is utterly unprepared for changing preferences(33:40) Productivity boom 1987-2004(36:58) Was the smartphone actually a step change in productivity?(39:42) Next wave of innovation(41:50) Where Noah disagrees with Marc Andreessen(44:15)Government vs privatized enablement of innovation(49:50) Real sustainability is important and possibleThis show is produced by Turpentine: a network of podcasts, newsletters, and more, covering technology, business, and culture — all from the perspective of industry insiders and experts. We’re launching new shows every week, and we’re looking for industry-leading sponsors — if you think that might be you and your company, email us at erik@turpentine.co.

24 Loka 202359min

Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg continue their analysis of the Israel-Gaza war, against the backdrop of shifting geopolitical power, increasing conflicts, and the end of Pax Americana. They also discuss why Noah expects a China-Taiwan conflict, and the possibility of WWIII. Daffy is offering Econ 102 listeners a free $25 for the charity of their choice when they join: https://www.daffy.org/econ102We're hiring across the board at Turpentine and for Erik's personal team on other projects he's incubating. He's hiring a Chief of Staff, EA, Head of Special Projects, Investment Associate, and more. For a list of JDs, check out: eriktorenberg.com.--Sponsors: GIVEWELL | DAFFY | NETSUITE Have you ever wondered where your donation could have the most impact? GiveWell has now spent over 15 years researching charitable organizations and only directs funding to the highest impact opportunities they’ve found in global health and poverty alleviation. Make informed decisions about high-impact giving. If you’ve never donated through GiveWell before, you can have your donation matched up to $100 before the end of the year, or as long as matching funds last. To claim your match, go to givewell.org and pick “Podcast” and enter Econ 102 at checkout. Daffy is the most modern and accessible donor-advised fund, making it easier to put money aside for charity. You can make your tax-deductible contributions all at once or set aside a little each week or month. And you don’t just have to donate cash, you can easily contribute stocks, ETFs, or crypto. Plus, you never have to track receipts from your donations again. It’s free to get started and Econ 102 listeners get $25 towards the charity of their choice. Daffy is offering Econ 102 listeners a free $25 for the charity of their choice when they join Daffy https://www.daffy.org/econ102 NetSuite has 25 years of providing financial software for all your business needs. More than 36,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, gaining visibility and control over their financials, inventory, HR, eCommerce, and more. If you’re looking for an ERP platform head to NetSuite http://netsuite.com/102 and download your own customized KPI checklist.--Econ 102 is a part of the Turpentine podcast network. To learn more: www.turpentine.co--TIMESTAMPS:(00:00) Episode Preview(01:50) Commentary on the Israel-Hamas war(03:41) The idea that wars end(07:34) The US has lost its unipolar moment(09:12) Should Israel double Gaza’s GDP to prevent violence?(15:05) Rich and aggressive? (19:50) Sponsors: Daffy and NetSuite(22:02) Collapse of Pax Americana means countries feel safer declaring war(22:59) Hotspots for conflict: Azerbaijan and Armenia, Serbia and Kosovo(25:52) If China attacks Taiwan, what happens(29:32) How should international companies get ready?(31:12) Auditing supply chain(33:50) Recap of the tension between Taiwan and China(35:14) Strategic Ambiguity(38:11) Other key players in the Taiwan-China conflict(47:10) The Europeanization of the Ukraine war(50:17) We have nukes in Germany(51:03) Comparing Obama/Trump/Biden policies(53:37) What we’re actually doing vs the illusion of what we’re doing with Iran(54:26) How should the government get ready?This show is produced by Turpentine: a network of podcasts, newsletters, and more, covering technology, business, and culture — all from the perspective of industry insiders and experts. We’re launching new shows every week, and we’re looking for industry-leading sponsors — if you think that might be you and your company, email us at erik@turpentine.co.

18 Loka 202353min

Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg record an episode to discuss the war between Israel and Hamas, the moral problems with the leftist ideological response, the complicated geopolitical power dynamics in the Arab world, and how this conflict marks the waning of American power. Daffy is offering Econ 102 listeners a free $25 for the charity of their choice when they join: https://www.daffy.org/econ102We're hiring across the board at Turpentine and for Erik's personal team on other projects he's incubating. He's hiring a Chief of Staff, EA, Head of Special Projects, Investment Associate, and more. For a list of JDs, check out: eriktorenberg.com.--Sponsors: GIVEWELL | DAFFY | NETSUITE Have you ever wondered where your donation could have the most impact? GiveWell has now spent over 15 years researching charitable organizations and only directs funding to the highest impact opportunities they’ve found in global health and poverty alleviation. Make informed decisions about high-impact giving. If you’ve never donated through GiveWell before, you can have your donation matched up to $100 before the end of the year, or as long as matching funds last. To claim your match, go to givewell.org and pick “Podcast” and enter Econ 102 at checkout. Daffy is the most modern and accessible donor-advised fund, making it easier to put money aside for charity. You can make your tax-deductible contributions all at once or set aside a little each week or month. And you don’t just have to donate cash, you can easily contribute stocks, ETFs, or crypto. Plus, you never have to track receipts from your donations again. It’s free to get started and Econ 102 listeners get $25 towards the charity of their choice. Daffy is offering Econ 102 listeners a free $25 for the charity of their choice when they join Daffy https://www.daffy.org/econ102 NetSuite has 25 years of providing financial software for all your business needs. More than 36,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, gaining visibility and control over their financials, inventory, HR, eCommerce, and more. If you’re looking for an ERP platform head to NetSuite http://netsuite.com/102 and download your own customized KPI checklist.--Econ 102 is a part of the Turpentine podcast network. To learn more: www.turpentine.co--TIMESTAMPS:(00:00) Unpacking the events that led to war in Israel(05:18)Moral problems of the new leftist ideology(11:00) Power dynamics of the Middle East and investment in the conflict(21:29) Sponsors: Daffy | NetSuite(23:30) Reacting to Sam Harris' statement about moral equivalence(33:20) Is apartheid a fair analogy?(41:00) Where the Saudi Arabia alliance goes from here(46:30)The three-state solution?(47:00) Taking stock of technological advancement(52:00) Israel's military advantage is not guaranteed here(54:55) This war is downstream of the waning of American power(57:30) America is reserving most of our weapons(01:01:15) What does it mean for the Pax Americana to be over?(01:05:30) The Middle East is stuck in a mindset of war–Music License: ZSFI0EY7UP5YYXI2This show is produced by Turpentine: a network of podcasts, newsletters, and more, covering technology, business, and culture — all from the perspective of industry insiders and experts. We’re launching new shows every week, and we’re looking for industry-leading sponsors — if you think that might be you and your company, email us at erik@turpentine.co.

9 Loka 20231h 7min

Economist Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg discuss the legacy and failings of Bernie Sanders’ movement with regards to privatization, student loans, healthcare, and the wealth gap. Daffy is offering Econ 102 listeners a free $25 for the charity of their choice when they join: https://www.daffy.org/econ102We're hiring across the board at Turpentine and for Erik's personal team on other projects he's incubating. He's hiring a Chief of Staff, EA, Head of Special Projects, Investment Associate, and more. For a list of JDs, check out: eriktorenberg.com.--Sponsors: GIVEWELL | DAFFY | NETSUITE Have you ever wondered where your donation could have the most impact? GiveWell has now spent over 15 years researching charitable organizations and only directs funding to the highest impact opportunities they’ve found in global health and poverty alleviation. Make informed decisions about high-impact giving. If you’ve never donated through GiveWell before, you can have your donation matched up to $100 before the end of the year, or as long as matching funds last. To claim your match, go to givewell.org and pick “Podcast” and enter Econ 102 at checkout. Daffy is the most modern and accessible donor-advised fund, making it easier to put money aside for charity. You can make your tax-deductible contributions all at once or set aside a little each week or month. And you don’t just have to donate cash, you can easily contribute stocks, ETFs, or crypto. Plus, you never have to track receipts from your donations again. It’s free to get started and Econ 102 listeners get $25 towards the charity of their choice. Daffy is offering Econ 102 listeners a free $25 for the charity of their choice when they join Daffy https://www.daffy.org/econ102 NetSuite has 25 years of providing financial software for all your business needs. More than 36,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, gaining visibility and control over their financials, inventory, HR, eCommerce, and more. If you’re looking for an ERP platform head to NetSuite http://netsuite.com/102 and download your own customized KPI checklist.--Econ 102 is a part of the Turpentine podcast network. To learn more: www.turpentine.co--Timestamps(00:00) Episode Preview(01:32) The Bernie movement’s evolution(05:00) Factionalism and aggression marking the approach of socialists(15:36) Glass-Steagall litmus test(19:00) Sponsors: Daffy | NetSuite(21:11) Can neoliberalism work?(22:34) Biggest mistakes of privatization: the non-profit industrialization complex(26:18) Lack of industrial policy is a pro-finance policy(27:30) Chief neoliberal shill(30:05) How Biden is carrying forward the legacy of Bernie’s movement(34:10) Inflation killed student loan relief (besides the courts)(41:00) How Bernie bungled his egalitarian movement(48:45) Wealth tax(50:55) HealthcareThis show is produced by Turpentine: a network of podcasts, newsletters, and more, covering technology, business, and culture — all from the perspective of industry insiders and experts. We’re launching new shows every week, and we’re looking for industry-leading sponsors — if you think that might be you and your company, email us at erik@turpentine.co.

3 Loka 202353min

Economist Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg discuss Noah's Substack essays about a possible age of Austerity, and moving away from China for the US's next age of globalization. Daffy is offering Econ 102 listeners a free $25 for the charity of their choice when they join: https://www.daffy.org/econ102We're hiring across the board at Turpentine and for Erik's personal team on other projects he's incubating. He's hiring a Chief of Staff, EA, Head of Special Projects, Investment Associate, and more. For a list of JDs, check out: eriktorenberg.com.--Sponsors: GIVEWELL | DAFFY | NETSUITE Have you ever wondered where your donation could have the most impact? GiveWell has now spent over 15 years researching charitable organizations and only directs funding to the highest impact opportunities they’ve found in global health and poverty alleviation. Make informed decisions about high-impact giving. If you’ve never donated through GiveWell before, you can have your donation matched up to $100 before the end of the year, or as long as matching funds last. To claim your match, go to givewell.org and pick “Podcast” and enter Econ 102 at checkout. Daffy is the most modern and accessible donor-advised fund, making it easier to put money aside for charity. You can make your tax-deductible contributions all at once or set aside a little each week or month. And you don’t just have to donate cash, you can easily contribute stocks, ETFs, or crypto. Plus, you never have to track receipts from your donations again. It’s free to get started and Econ 102 listeners get $25 towards the charity of their choice. Daffy is offering Econ 102 listeners a free $25 for the charity of their choice when they join Daffy https://www.daffy.org/econ102 NetSuite has 25 years of providing financial software for all your business needs. More than 36,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, gaining visibility and control over their financials, inventory, HR, eCommerce, and more. If you’re looking for an ERP platform head to NetSuite http://netsuite.com/102 and download your own customized KPI checklist.--Econ 102 is a part of the Turpentine podcast network. To learn more: www.turpentine.co--LINKS:“An Age of Austerity is probably on the way” : https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/an-age-of-austerity-is-probably-on“No one knows how much the government can borrow” : https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/no-one-knows-how-much-the-government“The next phase of globalization is going to be awesome” : https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/the-next-phase-of-globalization-is--Timestamps:(00:00) Episode Preview(01:24 - 23:48) Age of Austerity(04:27) Reducing the deficit(02:47) What spending cuts will we see?(06:10) What’s the bottom line for growth?(18:38) Sponsors: Daffy and Netsuite(23:49) Adjust your graphs for inflation!(25:22) Why a cheaper US dollar is actually a weapon(26:55) Chinese “dumping”(29:42) The next wave of globalization is going to be awesome(32:29) China is a nuts country(33:35) Are we deglobalizing?(35:51) South and Southeast Asia(43:19) Economic Nationalism is here to stay(46:57) Globalization moving forward is about reducing our dependency on China--X / TWITTER: @noahpinion (Noah)@eriktorenberg (Erik)

26 Syys 202349min

Economist Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg discuss Noah's recent Substack post skewering the claims and proposals that make up Republican Presidential candidate Vivek's Ramaswamy's platform. Noah covers Vivek's climate science sources, economic facts on renewable energy, foreign policy stance towards China, Russia, Taiwan and more. Daffy is offering Econ 102 listeners a free $25 for the charity of their choice when they join Daffy https://www.daffy.org/econ102We're hiring across the board at Turpentine and for Erik's personal team on other projects he's incubating. He's hiring a Chief of Staff, EA, Head of Special Projects, Investment Associate, and more. For a list of JDs, check out: eriktorenberg.com.--Sponsors: GIVEWELL | DAFFY | NETSUITE Have you ever wondered where your donation could have the most impact? GiveWell has now spent over 15 years researching charitable organizations and only directs funding to the highest impact opportunities they’ve found in global health and poverty alleviation. Make informed decisions about high-impact giving. If you’ve never donated through GiveWell before, you can have your donation matched up to $100 before the end of the year, or as long as matching funds last. To claim your match, go to givewell.org and pick “Podcast” and enter Econ 102 at checkout. Daffy is the most modern and accessible donor-advised fund, making it easier to put money aside for charity. You can make your tax-deductible contributions all at once or set aside a little each week or month. And you don’t just have to donate cash, you can easily contribute stocks, ETFs, or crypto. Plus, you never have to track receipts from your donations again. It’s free to get started and Econ 102 listeners get $25 towards the charity of their choice. Daffy is offering Econ 102 listeners a free $25 for the charity of their choice when they join Daffy https://www.daffy.org/econ102 NetSuite has 25 years of providing financial software for all your business needs. More than 36,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, gaining visibility and control over their financials, inventory, HR, eCommerce, and more. If you’re looking for an ERP platform head to NetSuite http://netsuite.com/102 and download your own customized KPI checklist.--Econ 102 is a part of the Turpentine podcast network. To learn more: www.turpentine.co--TIMESTAMPS: (01:00) Episode Preview(03:20) Why Noah doesn’t think Vivek should be tech’s candidate(07:20) Vivek’s views on climate are stuck in 2010(13:15) Countering Vivek’s sources on climate(17:52) Sponsors: Daffy | NetSuite(21:00) Vivek's foreign policy claims(27:00) Viviek's Russia & Ukraine takes(31:45) Any charitable view of Vivek's foreign policy?(33:00) Biden vs Trump vs Obama foreign policy(40:00) Noah's ideal foreign policy: the Anti-Empire(44:00) Republicans need to advocate for defense spending(46:00) Similarities between abundance movement and dismantling the administrative state(50:00) Noah's pick for Republican candidate(57:00) Why Vivek is not the one.

19 Syys 202358min