Trump, Tariffs, and the New 80s: America's Next Cultural Reset

In today’s episode, Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg dive into some listener questions on economics and macroeconomics issues. They discuss the Federal Reserve's strategy on interest rates, the complexities of macroeconomic prediction, the evolution of industrial policy, and pick the best economists of all time.🔥 Apply to join over 400 founders and Execs in the Turpentine Network: https://hmplogxqz0y.typeform.com/to/JCkphVqj-- RECOMMENDED PODCAST:Patrick McKenzie (@patio11) talks to experts who understand the complicated but not unknowable systems we rely on. You might be surprised at how quickly Patrick and his guests can put you in the top 1% of understanding for stock trading, tech hiring, and more.Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/3Mos4VE3figVXleHDqfXOHApple: https://podcasts.apple.com/id1753399812https://podcasts.apple.com/id1753399812-🎙️ History 102 with WhatifAltHistEvery week, creator of WhatifAltHist Rudyard Lynch and Erik Torenberg cover a major topic in history in depth -- in under an hour. This season will cover classical Greece, early America, the Vikings, medieval Islam, ancient China, the fall of the Roman Empire, and more.Subscribe on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/36Kqo3BMMUBGTDo1IEYihmApple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/history-102-with-whatifalthists-rudyard-lynch-and/id1730633913YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@History102-qg5oj--SPONSORS: BABBEL | BEEHIIV🌐 Ready to achieve your 2024 goals? Start learning a new language with Babbel in just three weeks. Enjoy app lessons, live classes, and podcasts designed for real-world conversations. Get up to 60% off at babbel.com/econ102🐝 Head to Beehiiv, the newsletter platform built for growth, to power your own. Connect with premium brands, scale your audience, and deliver a beautiful UX that stands out in an inbox. Go to https://beehiiv.com and use code "MOZ" for 20% off your first three months--SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: Econ102@Turpentine.co--LINKS:Noahpinion: https://www.noahpinion.blog/--TIMESTAMPS:(00:00) Intro(00:35) Federal Reserve's approach to interest rates and inflation(02:48) Challenges in macroeconomic predictions(04:46) Microeconomic foundations of macroeconomics(07:53) Debating the greatest economists(10:19) University economics departments and their cultures(13:25) Great financial crisis: Causes and Misconceptions(18:50) Sponsor: Babbel and Beehiiv(21:25) Stabilizing Nominal Gross Domestic Product (NGDP)(25:50) Mechanisms of fiscal and monetary policy(29:42) Embracing industrial policy(37:13) Challenges in U.S. industrial policy(42:20) Threat of bioweapons and AI(49:21) Economic development with AI and automation(51:23) Economic impacts of high interest rates(53:44) Engaging with policymakers and future initiatives(55:09) Wrap

19 Kesä 202453min

Today Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg answer more listener questions covering the surge of support for the hard right in European elections, the impact of immigration in Europe and the US, the future of Social Security, the stability of banks, and the best and worst taxes in the US. They also dive into the negative impact of China conquering Taiwan and why it is important to stand up against China's aggression. 🔥 Apply to join over 400 founders and Execs in the Turpentine Network: https://hmplogxqz0y.typeform.com/to/JCkphVqj--RECOMMENDED PODCAST:Patrick McKenzie (@patio11) talks to experts who understand the complicated but not unknowable systems we rely on. You might be surprised at how quickly Patrick and his guests can put you in the top 1% of understanding for stock trading, tech hiring, and more.Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/3Mos4VE3figVXleHDqfXOHApple: https://podcasts.apple.com/id1753399812https://podcasts.apple.com/id1753399812-🎙️ History 102 with WhatifAltHistEvery week, creator of WhatifAltHist Rudyard Lynch and Erik Torenberg cover a major topic in history in depth -- in under an hour. This season will cover classical Greece, early America, the Vikings, medieval Islam, ancient China, the fall of the Roman Empire, and more.Subscribe on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/36Kqo3BMMUBGTDo1IEYihmApple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/history-102-with-whatifalthists-rudyard-lynch-and/id1730633913YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@History102-qg5oj--SPONSORS: BABBEL | BEEHIIV🌐 Ready to achieve your 2024 goals? Start learning a new language with Babbel in just three weeks. Enjoy app lessons, live classes, and podcasts designed for real-world conversations. Get up to 60% off at babbel.com/econ102🐝 Head to Beehiiv, the newsletter platform built for growth, to power your own. Connect with premium brands, scale your audience, and deliver a beautiful UX that stands out in an inbox. Go to https://beehiiv.com and use code "MOZ" for 20% off your first three months_SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: Econ102@Turpentine.co_LINKS:Noahpinion: https://www.noahpinion.blog/--TIMESTAMPS:(00:00) Intro(00:25) European elections and economic concerns(05:41) Comparing immigration in the US and Europe(12:01) Immigration in Japan and Vietnam(14:01) Brain drain in small countries and economic challenges(15:59) Sponsor: Babbel and Beehiiv(18:34) Social security and population growth(22:04) Banking crisis and regulations(26:56) Taxation: Best and worst practices(32:00) Government spending and infrastructure(37:16) Future of Intel and the chip industry(40:57) Manufacturing vs. Service-based development(49:54) Japan-Korea relations and generational change(56:49) Threat of China and global alliances(01:03:06) Wrap

13 Kesä 20241h 2min

In this episode, Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg are joined by Kyla Scanlon, creator, writer, analyst, and author of new book “In this Economy?" They discuss the vibecession, the housing crisis, leader fatigue, and the impact of the economy on political polarization and the age of austerity. The conversation also covers the impact of Trump's economic policies, the risk of hyperinflation, and the potential for war with China. Crush your 2024 goals and learn a new language with Babbel - get 60% off at Babbel.com/econ102🔥 Apply to join over 400 founders and Execs in the Turpentine Network: https://hmplogxqz0y.typeform.com/to/JCkphVqj--Recommended Podcast: The Riff with Byrne HobartByrne Hobart, the writer of The Diff, is revered in Silicon Valley. You can get an hour with him each week. See for yourself how his thinking can upgrade yours.Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/6rANlV54GCARLgMOtpkzKtApple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-riff-with-byrne-hobart-and-erik-torenberg/id1716646486-🎙️ History 102 with WhatifAltHistEvery week, creator of WhatifAltHist Rudyard Lynch and Erik Torenberg cover a major topic in history in depth -- in under an hour. This season will cover classical Greece, early America, the Vikings, medieval Islam, ancient China, the fall of the Roman Empire, and more.Subscribe on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/36Kqo3BMMUBGTDo1IEYihmApple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/history-102-with-whatifalthists-rudyard-lynch-and/id1730633913YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@History102-qg5oj--SPONSORS: BABBEL | BEEHIIV🌐 Ready to achieve your 2024 goals? Start learning a new language with Babbel in just three weeks. Enjoy app lessons, live classes, and podcasts designed for real-world conversations. Get up to 60% off at Babbel.com/econ102🐝 Head to Beehiiv, the newsletter platform built for growth, to power your own. Connect with premium brands, scale your audience, and deliver a beautiful UX that stands out in an inbox. Go to https://beehiiv.com and use code "MOZ" for 20% off your first three months_SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: Econ102@Turpentine.co_LINKS:Kyla Scanlon: https://kylascanlon.com/Noahpinion: https://www.noahpinion.blog/--TIMESTAMPS:(00:00) Intro(00:27) Understanding economic misconceptions(02:27) Vibecession(03:36) Interest rates and inflation debate(08:05) Generational wealth and housing(15:06) Sponsor: Babbel and Beehiiv(17:41) Monopolization of land and housing(22:55) Speculation and financial nihilism(28:40) Political influence on economic perception(36:44) Economic polarization and bifurcation(37:12) The Age of Austerity(41:44) Trump's economic policies and potential impact(50:34) Global elections and geopolitical fragmentation(58:10) Comparing Trump to global leaders(59:55) Identifying the biggest risks amidst inflation(01:06:20) Wrap

5 Kesä 20241h 5min

Today Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg discuss the recent angry posts on X from David Austin Walsh, a history postdoc at Yale, and what this controversy says about the social and economic trends of the elite in the US. They also cover the the rise of right-wing muckrakers, discuss what the conservative movement needs now, and who they consider the smartest thinkers today are - on the left and the right.🔥 Apply to join over 400 founders and Execs in the Turpentine Network: https://hmplogxqz0y.typeform.com/to/JCkphVqj--Recommended Podcast: The Riff with Byrne Hobart Byrne Hobart, the writer of The Diff, is revered in Silicon Valley. You can get an hour with him each week. See for yourself how his thinking can upgrade yours.Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/6rANlV54GCARLgMOtpkzKtApple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-riff-with-byrne-hobart-and-erik-torenberg/id1716646486--SPONSORS: BEEHIIVHead to Beehiiv, the newsletter platform built for growth, to power your own. Connect with premium brands, scale your audience, and deliver a beautiful UX that stands out in an inbox. 🐝 https://beehiiv.com and use code "MOZ" for 20% off your first three months--SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: Econ102@Turpentine.co--LINKShttps://www.noahpinion.blog/p/the-case-of-the-angry-history-postdoc--TIMESTAMPS:(00:00) Intro(00:52) Twitter Blow-Up: David Austin Walsh controversy(04:10) Elite Overproduction and academia(08:09) Racial Disparities in academia(14:12) Sponsor: Beehiiv(15:23) Elite overproduction’s implications for politics and academia(20:46) Right-Wing muckrakers and progressive institutions(30:37) Misconceptions about Barack Obama(31:08) The Rise of Mike Solana(33:00) Evolution of progressive and conservative labels(38:33) Smartest leftist(40:48) American Roots of Wokeness(54:20) Future of Conservatism(59:59) Wrap

29 Touko 202459min

In today’s episode, Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg respond to pressing questions on US inflation, the possibility of the US becoming a petro-state, global trade dynamics in the context of geopolitical shifts, the potential impacts of de-dollarization, and the sustainability of defense strategies. They also cover the impact of recent wars, and discuss India and Japan. Thanks to all the listeners who continue to send in their questions!🔥 Apply to join over 400 founders and Execs in the Turpentine Network: https://hmplogxqz0y.typeform.com/to/JCkphVqj--Recommended Podcast: Company BreakdownsEach episode of Company Breakdowns dives into S-1s and series B-and-beyond companies, interviewing founders and investors to break down the companies. First episodes are on Reddit, Twilio, Klaviyo and Rubrik.Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/0epyYBAxLeF0PsNagdDJAJApple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/company-breakdowns/id1743119197--SPONSORS: BEEHIIVHead to Beehiiv, the newsletter platform built for growth, to power your own. Connect with premium brands, scale your audience, and deliver a beautiful UX that stands out in an inbox. 🐝 https://beehiiv.com and use code "MOZ" for 20% off your first three months_SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: Econ102@Turpentine.co_LINKS:Noahpinion: https://www.noahpinion.blog/--TIMESTAMPS:(00:00) Intro(01:45) Exploring Biden's influence on inflation and policy suggestions(05:21) Inflation's impact on national debt(09:34) Role of industrial policy in inflation dynamics(15:47) Is the U.S. Becoming a Petro State?(17:28) Sponsor: Beehiiv(18:39) Discussing federal reserve's balance sheet and monetary policy(23:49) Student loan forgiveness and tariffs(25:38) WTO's role in trade disputes(28:23) Rethinking global trade rules(31:28) Trade agreements and military alliances(32:35) China and Russia: Trade relations and aggressiveness(33:28) China’s capital inflow tax(40:13) India's political landscape and Modi's impact(50:10) Reassessing U.S. military interventions: Vietnam, Afghanistan, and Iraq(53:44) Role of conventional forces in preventing nuclear war(56:46) Japan's currency intervention(57:47) Invitation to Lithuania(58:10) Wrap

22 Touko 202457min

In this week’s episode, Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg explore various aspects of Joe Biden’s presidency to evaluate a case for reelecting Biden, focusing on economic policy shifts, spending concerns, inflation, and industrial policy. They also emphasize the historical and current political dynamics between the U.S. and China, exploring tariffs, trade, oil production, and technology, with a nuanced view of protectionism’s role in national security and economic growth.🔥 Apply to join over 400 founders and Execs in the Turpentine Network: https://hmplogxqz0y.typeform.com/to/JCkphVqj--Recommended Podcast: Company BreakdownsEach episode of Company Breakdowns dives into S-1s and series B-and-beyond companies, interviewing founders and investors to break down the companies. First episodes are on Reddit, Klaviyo and Rubrik - which just IPO’d.--SPONSORS: BEEHIIVHead to Beehiiv, the newsletter platform built for growth, to power your own. Connect with premium brands, scale your audience, and deliver a beautiful UX that stands out in an inbox. 🐝 https://Beehiiv.com and use code "MOZ" for 20% off your first three months_SEND US YOUR Q’s FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: Econ102@Turpentine.co_LINKS:Noahpinion: The Positive Case for Joe Biden https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/the-positive-case-for-joe-bidenNoahpinion: https://www.noahpinion.blog/--TIMESTAMPS:(00:00) Intro(00:19) Positive case for Joe Biden(05:34) Biden’s economic policies and achievements(10:32) Discussing inflation during Biden’s administration(15:00) Sponsor: Beehiiv(16:10) Analyzing the CHIPS Act and Inflation Reduction Act(20:16) Impact of tariffs and permitting challenges(26:16) Tariff Debate: Impact on EVs and global manufacturing(36:51) Alternatives policies and strategies beyond tariffs(39:26) Evolution of America’s approach to China: Obama, Trump, and Biden(46:44) Wrap

15 Touko 202446min

This week on Econ 102, Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg discuss the pros and cons of Biden's tax plan based on Noah's recent essay. They also answered listener questions on the German economy's success, Japan's government debt management, and strategies for staying well-informed on economic issues.Recommended Podcast: Company BreakdownsEach episode of Company Breakdowns dives into S-1s and series B-and-beyond companies, interviewing founders and investors to break down the companies. First episodes are on Reddit, Klaviyo and Rubrik - which just IPO'd.Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/0epyYBAxLeF0PsNagdDJAJApple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/company-breakdowns/id1743119197--SPONSORS: BEEHIIV | HARMONICHead to Beehiiv, the newsletter platform built for growth, to power your own. Connect with premium brands, scale your audience, and deliver a beautiful UX that stands out in an inbox. 🐝 https://beehiiv.com and use code "MOZ" for 20% off your first three months🧲 Learn why Craft, Bedrock, NEA and 100s more trust Harmonic’s data to source deals. Harmonic is the most complete startup database, finding new companies as soon as they incorporate and tracking them through IPO. Head to https://bit.ly/harmonicturpentine (and make sure to mention Turpentine VC during your demo.)_SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: Econ102@Turpentine.co_LINKS:Noahpinion: Biden is Right https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/biden-is-right-that-we-need-to-raiseNoahpinion: https://www.noahpinion.blog/--TIMESTAMPS:(00:00) Intro(00:51) Biden's Tax Plan: A Critical Analysis(10:45) Argument for and Against Tax Increases(15:41) Sponsor: Beehiiv(16:57) Exploring Capital Gains and Inheritance Taxes(23:07) Impact of Inherited Wealth and Productivity(28:17) Potential Impact of Taxing Unrealized Gains(30:02) Sponsor: Harmonic(31:08) Progressive Wage Subsidies vs. UBI(33:12) Political Activism: Then and Now(43:21) Germany's Success in Manufacturing(45:35) Japan's Government Debt and Deflation(47:45) Discrepancy between S&P 500 Growth Rate and GDP Growth Rate(50:42) Effects of Algorithmic Pricing on Competition(53:45) Noah's News Consumption(56:36) Wrap

10 Touko 202454min

In today's episode of Econ 102, Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg tackle more listener questions: the Fed's impact on inflation and the economy, theories behind interest rates' unexpected effects, and 'greedflation'. The discussion also extends to shifts in Japan's economic policies amid currency valuation concerns, housing price disparities between the US and Canada, gentrification, balanced budget amendments, and the geopolitical dynamics between Saudi Arabia and Iran, finishing with thoughts on TikTok. Thank you to everyone who sent in questions. Keep 'em coming: Econ102@turpentine.co--SPONSORS: BEEHIIV | WARP | HARMONICHead to Beehiiv, the newsletter platform built for growth, to power your own. Connect with premium brands, scale your audience, and deliver a beautiful UX that stands out in an inbox. 🐝 https://beehiiv.com and use code "MOZ" for 20% off your first three monthsHundreds of startups already trust Warp to handle their payroll and compliance needs - you can go from zero to payroll live in just two days. Don't let payroll and compliance hold your startup back – visit https://joinwarp.com/peel to get started and receive a $1000 gift card when you first run payroll.🧲 Learn why Craft, Bedrock, NEA and 100s more trust Harmonic’s data to source deals. Harmonic is the most complete startup database, finding new companies as soon as they incorporate and tracking them through IPO. Head to https://bit.ly/harmonicturpentine (and make sure to mention Turpentine VC during your demo.)_Recommended Podcast: Company BreakdownsEach episode of Company Breakdowns dives into S-1s and series B-and-beyond companies, interviewing founders and investors to break down the companies. First episode is on Rubrik - which just IPO'd. Coming up this season: Databricks, Reddit + more,Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/0epyYBAxLeF0PsNagdDJAJApple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/company-breakdowns/id1743119197_SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: Econ102@Turpentine.co_LINKS:Noahpinion: https://www.noahpinion.blog/_TIMESTAMPS:(00:00) Intro(00:53) What if the dollar was no longer the world’s reserve currency?(04:50) Fair taxation(08:20) Level of redistribution in the US(10:30) Lowering inequality by increasing economic growth(18:26) Sponsor: Beehiiv | Harmonic(20:26) Education reform(30:07) Fixing rising costs in healthcare(34:12) Limitations of UBI(39:09) Massive gap between US and China’s manufacturing capacity(46:25) US potential gateway to Africa(54:28) Impact of foreign aid(59:20) Revitalizing small US cities(01:04:58) Wrap

1 Touko 202443min