Understanding US-China Relations Right Now with Nathan Labenz

Understanding US-China Relations Right Now with Nathan Labenz

In this week’s episode of Econ 102, Noah Smith, with special guest Nathan Labenz (host of AI podcast The Cognitive Revolution) breaks down the current landscape of U.S.-China relations and how once-allies became rivals under Xi Jinping's aggressive strategies. While China shows growing AI capabilities like DeepSeek, Smith emphasizes that the real concern isn't about AI models but rather military applications like autonomous drones and precision weapons, suggesting that the next decade represents a critical period for managing tensions and establishing deterrence.


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RECOMMENDED PODCAST:

Check out Nathan Labenz's podcast The Cognitive Revolution

Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-cognitive-revolution-ai-builders-researchers-and/id1669813431

Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/6yHyok3M3BjqzR0VB5MSyk

YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@CognitiveRevolutionPodcast/


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Highlights from the Episode:

  • The US and China were largely de facto allies throughout the 20th century, except for brief periods like the Korean War.
  • Xi Jinping's "great changes unseen in a century" doctrine signals intent to challenge US-led global order.
  • US chip export controls have been effective at limiting China's advanced chip manufacturing.
  • Military technology prioritizes maintaining a technological edge in precision weapons and autonomous systems, with conventional deterrence still key despite nuclear capabilities, while chip controls focus on preserving advantages in military applications over civilian technology.
  • Concerns about AI competition include skepticism over maintaining US "AI supremacy," the potential difficulty in containing AI capabilities like those of DeepSeek, and the risk that an aggressive approach could escalate conflict.


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SPONSORS:


NetSuite

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SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: Econ102@Turpentine.co


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FOLLOW ON X:

@labenz

@noahpinion

@eriktorenberg

@turpentinemedia


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RECOMMENDED IN THIS EPISODE:

Noahpinion: https://www.noahpinion.blog/

Dwarkesh podcast with Sarah Paine https://youtu.be/fx6fakjQBdo?si=FR4ZGTGWzXsO4__E

Book: Rush Doshi, The Long Game https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/52617647-the-long-game

Book: John Mearsheimer Conventional Deterrence https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/224128.Conventional_Deterrence

Noahpinion essay: Simple Lessons from China's Big AI Breakthrough https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/some-simple-lessons-from-chinas-big

Noahpinion Essay: The Elemental Foe https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/the-elemental-foe?utm_source=publication-search

Jaksot(114)

Why Libertarianism Fragmented, How the Right Became Statist, and Culture Wars

Why Libertarianism Fragmented, How the Right Became Statist, and Culture Wars

In episode 2, Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg track the fracturing of the Libertarian movement, the culture wars, and which ideas deserve not to die.We're hiring across the board at Turpentine and for Erik's personal team on other projects he's incubating. He's hiring a Chief of Staff, EA, Head of Special Projects, Investment Associate, and more. For a list of JDs, check out: eriktorenberg.com.--Sponsors: GIVEWELL | DAFFY | NETSUITE Have you ever wondered where your donation could have the most impact? GiveWell has now spent over 15 years researching charitable organizations and only directs funding to the highest impact opportunities they’ve found in global health and poverty alleviation. Make informed decisions about high-impact giving. If you’ve never donated through GiveWell before, you can have your donation matched up to $100 before the end of the year, or as long as matching funds last. To claim your match, go to givewell.org and pick “Podcast” and enter Econ 102 at checkout. Daffy is the most modern and accessible donor-advised fund, making it easier to put money aside for charity. You can make your tax-deductible contributions all at once or set aside a little each week or month. And you don’t just have to donate cash, you can easily contribute stocks, ETFs, or crypto. Plus, you never have to track receipts from your donations again. It’s free to get started and Econ 102 listeners get $25 towards the charity of their choice. Daffy is offering Econ 102 listeners a free $25 for the charity of their choice when they join Daffy https://www.daffy.org/econ102 NetSuite has 25 years of providing financial software for all your business needs. More than 36,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, gaining visibility and control over their financials, inventory, HR, eCommerce, and more. If you’re looking for an ERP platform head to NetSuite http://netsuite.com/102 and download your own customized KPI checklist.--Econ 102 is a part of the Turpentine podcast network. To learn more: www.turpentine.co--TIMESTAMPS:(00:00) Episode preview(12:54) Why did Libertarians lose?(15:00) Free trade failure in the 2000s(19:00) Libertarians jumping on the Trump train(19:45) Evolution to state-capacity libertarian(22:00) Culture wars vs. getting the economics right(27:30) Effect of money on politics(29:00) Urban fragmentation: San Francisco and New York(30:30) Hot take: Gavin Newsom underrated(37:00) How the right soured on the free markets and became became statist(39:00) Can a 'reset' work(40:20) Which ideas deserve not to die?--SPONSOR THIS PODCAST:We're looking for sponsors to partner with on this show. If you or your business might be interested, send us a note at erik@turpentine.co. Find out more here: https://www.turpentine.co/sponsors--LINKS MENTIONED:Where Does Libertarianism Go From Here? https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/where-does-libertarianism-go-fromTyler Cowen, State-Capacity Libertarianism https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2020/01/what-libertarianism-has-become-and-will-become-state-capacity-libertarianism.html--TWITTER:@noahpinion (Noah)@eriktorenberg (Erik)--This show is produced by Turpentine: a network of podcasts, newsletters, and more, covering technology, business, and culture — all from the perspective of industry insiders and experts. We’re launching new shows every week, and we’re looking for industry-leading sponsors — if you think that might be you and your company, email us at erik@turpentine.co.

18 Heinä 202349min

Foreign Policy, Industrial Policy, and Reflections on Biden thus far

Foreign Policy, Industrial Policy, and Reflections on Biden thus far

In our first episode of Econ 102, Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg discuss the highs and lows of Biden's first term, Biden's policies in comparison to previous presidents and other leaders, as well as China -- its real estate sector, industrial and manufacturing industries, and its views on tech.We're hiring across the board at Turpentine and for Erik's personal team on other projects he's incubating. He's hiring a Chief of Staff, EA, Head of Special Projects, Investment Associate, and more. For a list of JDs, check out: eriktorenberg.com.--Sponsors: GIVEWELL | DAFFY | NETSUITEHave you ever wondered where your donation could have the most impact? GiveWell has now spent over 15 years researching charitable organizations and only directs funding to the highest impact opportunities they’ve found in global health and poverty alleviation. Make informed decisions about high-impact giving. If you’ve never donated through GiveWell before, you can have your donation matched up to $100 before the end of the year, or as long as matching funds last. To claim your match, go to givewell.org and pick “Podcast” and enter Econ 102 at checkout.Daffy is the most modern and accessible donor-advised fund, making it easier to put money aside for charity. You can make your tax-deductible contributions all at once or set aside a little each week or month. And you don’t just have to donate cash, you can easily contribute stocks, ETFs, or crypto. Plus, you never have to track receipts from your donations again. It’s free to get started and Econ 102 listeners get $25 towards the charity of their choice. Daffy is offering Econ 102 listeners a free $25 for the charity of their choice when they join Daffy https://www.daffy.org/econ102NetSuite has 25 years of providing financial software for all your business needs. More than 36,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, gaining visibility and control over their financials, inventory, HR, eCommerce, and more. If you’re looking for an ERP platform head to NetSuite  http://netsuite.com/102 and download your own customized KPI checklist.--Econ 102 is a part of the Turpentine podcast network. To learn more: www.turpentine.co--TIMESTAMPS:(00:00) Episode Preview(01:24) Overview of Biden's first term(02:56) The most important thing Biden's done (12:19) What are the chances of Trump returning?(14:03) In the 1970s once again(14:47) Woke concerns among Republicans(15:38) Noah's ideal foreign policy(17:46) Japan's importance in foreign policy(19:29) Main foreign policy concerns in the next cycle(20:30) The ideal containment strategy(22:55) China(26:23) Getting to 1 billion Americans as a foreign policy measure(27:24) Real estate in China(31:33) Comparing and contrasting Chinese and American industrial policy(37:02) China's stomp on the IT industry to encourage manufacturing(39:09) The difference in Chinese and American views of manufacturing (43:18) Revitalizing American manufacturing (46:08) The services industry(48:03) A shortage of human truckers --SPONSOR THIS PODCAST:We're looking for sponsors to partner with on this show. If you or your business might be interested, send us a note at erik@turpentine.co. Find out more here: https://www.turpentine.co/sponsorsThis show is produced by Turpentine: a network of podcasts, newsletters, and more, covering technology, business, and culture — all from the perspective of industry insiders and experts. We’re launching new shows every week, and we’re looking for industry-leading sponsors — if you think that might be you and your company, email us at erik@turpentine.co.

11 Heinä 202349min

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