Elon's Real Goal at DOGE & How to Fix the Debt

Elon's Real Goal at DOGE & How to Fix the Debt

This week, Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg talk about DOGE, Elon Musk's initiative to reform government spending, and explore why it might be more about ideology than efficiency. Noah talks about how he would fix the US debt beyond simply cutting waste. They also cover the future of major programs like Medicaid ($804B/year), the trade-offs between inflation and austerity, and how conservatives might reshape federal institutions despite education polarization. Plus: why comparing government efficiency to Twitter's headcount reduction isn't as straightforward as it seems.


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Highlights from the Episode:

  • Noah argues that while Doge (Department of Government Efficiency) is publicly presented as a cost-cutting initiative, it's primarily an ideological project aimed at reducing "woke" initiatives in government.
  • As zero-interest debt gets rolled over at higher rates (around 4%), interest costs are reaching historic highs as a percentage of GDP.
  • Austerity measures will likely involve difficult choices for the middle class. Healthcare spending in the U.S. is disproportionately high compared to other wealthy nations.
  • Government efficiency is harder to measure than corporate efficiency due to its multiple, often conflicting objectives, the influence of democratic processes, and congressional oversight, which complicates decision-making about program value.


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RECOMMENDED IN THIS EPISODE:

Noahpinion: https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/what-i-think-doge-is-really-up-to

Jaksot(114)

Post-Trump Reflections: Fixing Blue Cities

Post-Trump Reflections: Fixing Blue Cities

Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg discuss the evolution and challenges of urban development in American cities, particularly the rise and fall of blue cities like San Francisco and New York, while exploring historical trends, fiscal policies, and socio-political dynamics. For full show notes, visit: https://highlightai.com/share/69fa9439-ace9-43c3-9a96-9876a7e440bc—RECOMMENDED PODCAST: Unpack PricingDive into the dark arts of SaaS pricing with Metronome CEO Scott Woody and tech leaders. Learn how strategic pricing drives explosive revenue growth in today's biggest companies like Snowflake, Cockroach Labs, Dropbox and more.Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/id1765716600Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/38DK3W1Fq1xxQalhDSueFg—SPONSORS: GiveWellGiveWell spends 50,000 hours every year doing deep-dives into different charitable programs to try to find the ways to do the most good for your dollar. GiveWell has now spent over 17 years researching charitable organizations and only directs funding to a few of the HIGHEST-IMPACT opportunities they’ve found. Visit https://www.givewell.org to find out more or make a donation. Select PODCAST and enter Econ 102 at checkout to make sure they know you heard about them from us.NetSuiteMore than 40,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. Download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine learning: https://netsuite.com/102📑 Discover Carta, the innovative end-to-end accounting platform revolutionizing private fund management with streamlined operations and on-demand insights. Experience the new standard at https://carta.com/investors/📝Notion offers powerful workflow and automation templates, perfect for streamlining processes and laying the groundwork for AI-driven automation. With Notion AI, you can search across thousands of documents from various platforms, generating highly relevant analysis and content tailored just for you - try it for free at https://www.notion.com/product/ai?utm_source=podcasts&utm_medium=upstreampod--SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: Econ102@Turpentine.co--FOLLOW ON X:@noahpinion@eriktorenberg@turpentinemedia--LINKS:Noahpinion: https://www.noahpinion.blog/https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/the-blue-cities-must-be-fixed

13 Marras 202455min

Trump and Shadow President Elon

Trump and Shadow President Elon

Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg analyze the aftermath of the Trump 2024 election, debating what to expect on political strategies, economic policies, and the power of figures like Elon Musk, while discussing potential shifts needed within the Democratic Party to address changing voter demographics. For full show notes, visit: https://highlightai.com/share/7411dfd6-68b4-4590-b8c5-64aac8ba953f--📰 Be notified early when Turpentine drops new publication: https://www.turpentine.co/exclusiveaccess --SPONSORS: GiveWellGiveWell spends 50,000 hours every year doing deep-dives into different charitable programs to try to find the ways to do the most good for your dollar. GiveWell has now spent over 17 years researching charitable organizations and only directs funding to a few of the HIGHEST-IMPACT opportunities they’ve found. Visit https://www.givewell.org to find out more or make a donation. Select PODCAST and enter Econ 102 at checkout to make sure they know you heard about them from us.NetSuiteMore than 40,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. Download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine learning: https://netsuite.com/102📑 Discover Carta, the innovative end-to-end accounting platform revolutionizing private fund management with streamlined operations and on-demand insights. Experience the new standard at https://carta.com/investors/📝Notion offers powerful workflow and automation templates, perfect for streamlining processes and laying the groundwork for AI-driven automation. With Notion AI, you can search across thousands of documents from various platforms, generating highly relevant analysis and content tailored just for you - try it for free at https://www.notion.com/product/ai?utm_source=podcasts&utm_medium=upstreampod--SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: Econ102@Turpentine.co--FOLLOW ON X:@noahpinion@eriktorenberg@turpentinemedia--LINKS:Noahpinion: https://www.noahpinion.blog/

7 Marras 202448min

Trump vs Kamala, Hereticon, Election Craziness

Trump vs Kamala, Hereticon, Election Craziness

This week on Econ 102, Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg examine the 2024 presidential election, Trump's influence on American politics, and the interplay of conservative movements with domestic and international issues. For full show notes, visit: https://highlightai.com/share/70765901-d8f7-46b6-b580-3cc3f3874b7f--📰 Be notified early when Turpentine drops new publication: https://www.turpentine.co/exclusiveaccess --SPONSORS: GiveWellGiveWell spends 50,000 hours every year doing deep-dives into different charitable programs to try to find the ways to do the most good for your dollar. GiveWell has now spent over 17 years researching charitable organizations and only directs funding to a few of the HIGHEST-IMPACT opportunities they’ve found. Visit https://www.givewell.org to find out more or make a donation. Select PODCAST and enter Econ 102 at checkout to make sure they know you heard about them from us. Weights & Biases Weights & Biases Weave is a lightweight AI developer toolkit designed to simplify your LLM app development. With Weave, you can trace and debug input, metadata and output with just 2 lines of code. Make real progress on your LLM development and visit the following link to get started with Weave today: https://wandb.me/crANROK is the enterprise-grade solution that automates sales tax compliance worldwide. Anrok tracks your exposure, calculates tax, and handles filings—all in one platform. Trusted by Notion, Anthropic, and Vanta. Visit https://www.anrok.com/turpentine to claim your free nexus study and take control of your SaaS tax strategy.📑 Discover Carta, the innovative end-to-end accounting platform revolutionizing private fund management with streamlined operations and on-demand insights. Experience the new standard at https://carta.com/investors/--SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: Econ102@Turpentine.co--FOLLOW ON X:@noahpinion@eriktorenberg@turpentinemedia--LINKS:Noahpinion: https://www.noahpinion.blog/

4 Marras 20241h 3min

Mini: Comparing the New Axis to WWII

Mini: Comparing the New Axis to WWII

Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg analyze the historical Axis powers in comparison to today's emerging adversarial nations, emphasizing geopolitical dynamics, military capabilities, and the evolving balance of power. For full shownotes, visit highlight: https://highlightai.com/share/577e5681-76d2-498c-8ebc-7b136b1b598f--Be notified early when Turpentine's drops new publication: https://www.turpentine.co/exclusiveaccess--SPONSOR:GiveWellGiveWell spends 50,000 hours every year doing deep-dives into different charitable programs to try to find the ways to do the most good for your dollar. GiveWell has now spent over 17 years researching charitable organizations and only directs funding to a few of the HIGHEST-IMPACT opportunities they’ve found. Visit https://www.givewell.org to find out more or make a donation. Select PODCAST and enter Econ 102 at checkout to make sure they know you heard about them from us.--SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: Econ102@Turpentine.co--FOLLOW ON X:@noahpinion@eriktorenberg@turpentinemedia--LINKS:Noahpinion: https://www.noahpinion.blog/

1 Marras 20246min

Mini: Tariffs on China, Trump, and National Security

Mini: Tariffs on China, Trump, and National Security

Noah breaks down the number one issue no one is grappling with in regards to tariffs on China. For full shownotes, visit highlight: https://highlightai.com/share/1835116c-516d-4cab-a2ee-19f4504bc263--Be notified early when Turpentine's drops new publication: https://www.turpentine.co/exclusiveaccess--SPONSOR:GiveWellGiveWell spends 50,000 hours every year doing deep-dives into different charitable programs to try to find the ways to do the most good for your dollar. GiveWell has now spent over 17 years researching charitable organizations and only directs funding to a few of the HIGHEST-IMPACT opportunities they’ve found. Visit https://www.givewell.org to find out more or make a donation. Select PODCAST and enter Econ 102 at checkout to make sure they know you heard about them from us.--SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: Econ102@Turpentine.co--FOLLOW ON X:@noahpinion@eriktorenberg@turpentinemedia--LINKS:Noahpinion: https://www.noahpinion.blog/

25 Loka 202422min

Progressivism: Past, Present, Future

Progressivism: Past, Present, Future

This week on Econ 102, Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg delivers a masterful analysis of American progressivism's rise, fall, and potential future resurrection as a class-focused movement in the 2030s. For full show notes, visit: https://highlightai.com/share/c29e2f67-3580-4753-913b-f87c744c6118--📰Be notified early when Turpentine drops new publication: https://www.turpentine.co/exclusiveaccess --RECOMMENDED PODCAST:🎙️ This Won't Last - Eavesdrop on Keith Rabois, Kevin Ryan, Logan Bartlett, and Zach Weinberg's monthly backchannel. They unpack their hottest takes on the future of tech, business, venture, investing, and politics.Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/id1765665937Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/2HwSNeVLL1MXy0RjFPyOSzYouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@ThisWontLastpodcast--SPONSORS: GiveWellGiveWell spends 50,000 hours every year doing deep-dives into different charitable programs to try to find the ways to do the most good for your dollar. GiveWell has now spent over 17 years researching charitable organizations and only directs funding to a few of the HIGHEST-IMPACT opportunities they’ve found. Visit https://www.givewell.org to find out more or make a donation. Select PODCAST and enter Econ 102 at checkout to make sure they know you heard about them from us. Weights & Biases Weights & Biases Weave is a lightweight AI developer toolkit designed to simplify your LLM app development. With Weave, you can trace and debug input, metadata and output with just 2 lines of code. Make real progress on your LLM development and visit the following link to get started with Weave today: https://wandb.me/crANROK is the enterprise-grade solution that automates sales tax compliance worldwide. Anrok tracks your exposure, calculates tax, and handles filings—all in one platform. Trusted by Notion, Anthropic, and Vanta. Visit https://www.anrok.com/turpentine to claim your free nexus study and take control of your SaaS tax strategy.📝NOTION offers powerful workflow and automation templates, perfect for streamlining processes and laying the groundwork for AI-driven automation. With Notion AI, you can search across thousands of documents from various platforms, generating highly relevant analysis and content tailored just for you - try it for free at https://www.notion.com/product/ai?utm_source=podcasts&utm_medium=upstreampod--SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: Econ102@Turpentine.co--FOLLOW ON X:@noahpinion@eriktorenberg@turpentinemedia--LINKS:Noahpinion: https://www.noahpinion.blog/

23 Loka 202457min

Comparing Trump, Biden, and Obama's China Strategies

Comparing Trump, Biden, and Obama's China Strategies

Noah Smith breaks down the last two decades of US-China policy shifts - and where we go from here in anticipation of the November election. Let us know if you like these short-form Econ 102 friday bonus episodes by emailing econ102@turpentine.co.--Be notified early when Turpentine's drops new publication: https://www.turpentine.co/exclusiveaccess--SPONSOR:GiveWellGiveWell spends 50,000 hours every year doing deep-dives into different charitable programs to try to find the ways to do the most good for your dollar. GiveWell has now spent over 17 years researching charitable organizations and only directs funding to a few of the HIGHEST-IMPACT opportunities they’ve found. Visit https://www.givewell.org to find out more or make a donation. Select PODCAST and enter Econ 102 at checkout to make sure they know you heard about them from us.--TIMESTAMPS:(00:00) Intro(01:18) Evolutions on America's approach to China(02:08) Obama's engagement strategy with China (03:07) Trump's paradigm shift in China policy (04:14) Biden's constructive approach to China policy s (06:02) Discussion on Trump's financial situation(07:09) China's history of influencing critics (08:11) Sponsor: GiveWell(09:21) Outro

18 Loka 20248min

Why Nations Fail, AI & Jobs, Economics as a Science

Why Nations Fail, AI & Jobs, Economics as a Science

This week on Econ 102, Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg tackle the shift in economic research from empirical studies to "big think" theories, critically examine Acemoglu's work on institutions and AI's impact on jobs, and debate the future of economics as a science.--🔥 Apply to join over 400 Founders and Execs in the Turpentine Network: https://www.turpentinenetwork.co/--RECOMMENDED PODCAST:🎙️ This Won't Last - Eavesdrop on Keith Rabois, Kevin Ryan, Logan Bartlett, and Zach Weinberg's monthly backchannel. They unpack their hottest takes on the future of tech, business, venture, investing, and politics.Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/id1765665937Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/2HwSNeVLL1MXy0RjFPyOSzYouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@ThisWontLastpodcast--SPONSORS: GiveWellGiveWell spends 50,000 hours every year doing deep-dives into different charitable programs to try to find the ways to do the most good for your dollar. GiveWell has now spent over 17 years researching charitable organizations and only directs funding to a few of the HIGHEST-IMPACT opportunities they’ve found. Visit https://www.givewell.org to find out more or make a donation. Select PODCAST and enter Econ 102 at checkout to make sure they know you heard about them from us. Weights & Biases Weights & Biases Weave is a lightweight AI developer toolkit designed to simplify your LLM app development. With Weave, you can trace and debug input, metadata and output with just 2 lines of code. Make real progress on your LLM development and visit the following link to get started with Weave today: https://wandb.me/crNetSuiteMore than 40,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. If you're looking for an ERP platform, get a one-of-a-kind flexible financing program on NetSuite: https://netsuite.com/102ANROK is the enterprise-grade solution that automates sales tax compliance worldwide. Anrok tracks your exposure, calculates tax, and handles filings—all in one platform. Trusted by Notion, Anthropic, and Vanta. Visit https://www.anrok.com/turpentine to claim your free nexus study and take control of your SaaS tax strategy.Carta📑Discover Carta, the innovative end-to-end accounting platform revolutionizing private fund management with streamlined operations and on-demand insights. Experience the new standard at https://carta.com/investors--SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: Econ102@Turpentine.co--FOLLOW ON X:@noahpinion@eriktorenberg@turpentinemedia--LINKS:Noahpinion: https://www.noahpinion.blog/Why Nations Fail: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Why_Nations_Fail--TIMESTAMPS:(00:00) Intro(01:14) Shift in economic theories(07:16) Influence of economic theories on practice(10:10) Acemoglu's contributions and skepticism(12:09) Why Nations Fail: A Deep dive(12:52) Sponsors: GiveWell | Weights & Biases(15:03) Evaluating institutional theories(23:01) Hayek's market theories in an AI world(25:06) Debating AI and automation(28:23) AI's Impact on employment(29:43) Power and Progress(30:13) Sponsors: Netsuite | Anrok | Carta(33:11) Impact of technology on job creation(37:20) Macroeconomic impact of AI(42:08) Economics: Big think vs. Humble work(46:13) Wrap

17 Loka 202441min

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