AI, Stargate, & Surveillance with Auron McIntyre and Lev Polyakov

AI, Stargate, & Surveillance with Auron McIntyre and Lev Polyakov

In this episode, Noah Smith recently went on the Break the Rules podcast, hosted by Lev Polyakov, for a debate with Auron MacIntyre. They discuss the societal implications of AI development, focusing on Trump's relationships with tech leaders, AI systems like Stargate, surveillance, economic productivity, regulatory measures, geopolitical competition, and immigrant labor's role in technological advancements.


RECOMMENDED PODCAST:

🎙️Break The Rules - Hosted by Lev Polyakov, Break The Rules brings different online & offline circles together at a time of social atomization in order to break echo-chambers.


Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/break-the-rules/id1543233584

Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/0yovF9Vo8n1fF1DGlMuWBh

YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@breakth3rules/


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SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: Econ102@Turpentine.co

FOLLOW ON X:

@LevPo

@AuronMacintyre

@noahpinion

@eriktorenberg

@turpentinemedia


RECOMMENDED IN THIS EPISODE:

Trump Liberty or Technocracy? Auron Macintyre & Noah Smith: https://www.youtube.com/live/pH_nuk94FQk?si=D-5qvd74cpBSjwfm

The Total State: How Liberal Democracies Become Tyrannies: https://www.amazon.com/dp/1684515580ref_=cm_sw_r_cp_ud_dp_5Q231Q8CQ65W8Z0PTQ3H

Noahpinion: https://www.noahpinion.blog/


TAKEAWAYS:

  • AI Development and Trump Administration: The discussion examines Donald Trump's meetings with tech leaders and the "Stargate" AI system, raising questions about whether the administration will embrace technocratic control systems or maintain populist principles.
  • Labor Market Effects: Noah points out that despite previous AI advances, we've seen wage increases for lower-skilled workers and movement toward higher-skilled jobs, challenging assumptions about AI's negative impact on employment.
  • Oligarchic Influences: Auron describes the current political landscape as an "age of oligarchy" where different factions of wealthy interests compete for influence, with Trump balancing populist rhetoric against tech billionaire support.
  • Civilization Complexity Theory: Auron references Joseph Tainter's theory on how increasing complexity with diminishing returns contributes to civilizational collapse, suggesting AI may be an attempt to escape these human limitations.
  • Immigration Comparisons: Noah argues that despite current debates about immigration, America faces fewer ethnic tensions than 100 years ago, providing historical perspective on current social challenges.

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Jaksot(116)

Biden's New Tax Plan, Algorithmic Pricing, and Noah's Media Diet

Biden's New Tax Plan, Algorithmic Pricing, and Noah's Media Diet

This week on Econ 102, Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg discuss the pros and cons of Biden's tax plan based on Noah's recent essay. They also answered listener questions on the German economy's success, Japan's government debt management, and strategies for staying well-informed on economic issues.Recommended Podcast: Company BreakdownsEach episode of Company Breakdowns dives into S-1s and series B-and-beyond companies, interviewing founders and investors to break down the companies. First episodes are on Reddit, Klaviyo and Rubrik - which just IPO'd.Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/0epyYBAxLeF0PsNagdDJAJApple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/company-breakdowns/id1743119197--SPONSORS: BEEHIIV | HARMONICHead to Beehiiv, the newsletter platform built for growth, to power your own. Connect with premium brands, scale your audience, and deliver a beautiful UX that stands out in an inbox. 🐝 https://beehiiv.com and use code "MOZ" for 20% off your first three months🧲 Learn why Craft, Bedrock, NEA and 100s more trust Harmonic’s data to source deals. Harmonic is the most complete startup database, finding new companies as soon as they incorporate and tracking them through IPO. Head to https://bit.ly/harmonicturpentine (and make sure to mention Turpentine VC during your demo.)_SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: Econ102@Turpentine.co_LINKS:Noahpinion: Biden is Right https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/biden-is-right-that-we-need-to-raiseNoahpinion: https://www.noahpinion.blog/--TIMESTAMPS:(00:00) Intro(00:51) Biden's Tax Plan: A Critical Analysis(10:45) Argument for and Against Tax Increases(15:41) Sponsor: Beehiiv(16:57) Exploring Capital Gains and Inheritance Taxes(23:07) Impact of Inherited Wealth and Productivity(28:17) Potential Impact of Taxing Unrealized Gains(30:02) Sponsor: Harmonic(31:08) Progressive Wage Subsidies vs. UBI(33:12) Political Activism: Then and Now(43:21) Germany's Success in Manufacturing(45:35) Japan's Government Debt and Deflation(47:45) Discrepancy between S&P 500 Growth Rate and GDP Growth Rate(50:42) Effects of Algorithmic Pricing on Competition(53:45) Noah's News Consumption(56:36) Wrap Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

10 Touko 202454min

How the Fed Works, Currency Crises, and TikTok ban [Listener Mailbag]

How the Fed Works, Currency Crises, and TikTok ban [Listener Mailbag]

In today's episode of Econ 102, Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg tackle more listener questions: the Fed's impact on inflation and the economy, theories behind interest rates' unexpected effects, and 'greedflation'. The discussion also extends to shifts in Japan's economic policies amid currency valuation concerns, housing price disparities between the US and Canada, gentrification, balanced budget amendments, and the geopolitical dynamics between Saudi Arabia and Iran, finishing with thoughts on TikTok. Thank you to everyone who sent in questions. Keep 'em coming: Econ102@turpentine.co--SPONSORS: BEEHIIV | WARP | HARMONICHead to Beehiiv, the newsletter platform built for growth, to power your own. Connect with premium brands, scale your audience, and deliver a beautiful UX that stands out in an inbox. 🐝 https://beehiiv.com and use code "MOZ" for 20% off your first three monthsHundreds of startups already trust Warp to handle their payroll and compliance needs - you can go from zero to payroll live in just two days. Don't let payroll and compliance hold your startup back – visit https://joinwarp.com/peel to get started and receive a $1000 gift card when you first run payroll.🧲 Learn why Craft, Bedrock, NEA and 100s more trust Harmonic’s data to source deals. Harmonic is the most complete startup database, finding new companies as soon as they incorporate and tracking them through IPO. Head to https://bit.ly/harmonicturpentine (and make sure to mention Turpentine VC during your demo.)_Recommended Podcast: Company BreakdownsEach episode of Company Breakdowns dives into S-1s and series B-and-beyond companies, interviewing founders and investors to break down the companies. First episode is on Rubrik - which just IPO'd. Coming up this season: Databricks, Reddit + more,Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/0epyYBAxLeF0PsNagdDJAJApple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/company-breakdowns/id1743119197_SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: Econ102@Turpentine.co_LINKS:Noahpinion: https://www.noahpinion.blog/_TIMESTAMPS:(00:00) Intro(00:53) What if the dollar was no longer the world’s reserve currency?(04:50) Fair taxation(08:20) Level of redistribution in the US(10:30) Lowering inequality by increasing economic growth(18:26) Sponsor: Beehiiv | Harmonic(20:26) Education reform(30:07) Fixing rising costs in healthcare(34:12) Limitations of UBI(39:09) Massive gap between US and China’s manufacturing capacity(46:25) US potential gateway to Africa(54:28) Impact of foreign aid(59:20) Revitalizing small US cities(01:04:58) Wrap Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

1 Touko 202443min

Wealth Distribution, Fixing Healthcare, and UBI

Wealth Distribution, Fixing Healthcare, and UBI

In today's episode, Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg answer listeners' questions in rapid fire format, over topics such as the global reserve currency, fair taxation, wealth redistribution, education reform, healthcare, US manufacturing, how to revitalize cities, and more. Thanks to all our listeners who continue to write in with big meaty questions!This show is produced by Turpentine: a network of podcasts, newsletters, and more, covering technology, business, and culture — all from the perspective of industry insiders and experts. We’re launching new shows every week, and we’re looking for industry-leading sponsors — if you think that might be you and your company, email us at erik@turpentine.co_SPONSORS: BEEHIIV | HARMONICHead to Beehiiv, the newsletter platform built for growth, to power your own. Connect with premium brands, scale your audience, and deliver a beautiful UX that stands out in an inbox. 🐝 to https://Beehiiv.com and use code “MOZ” for 20% off your first three months.🧲 Learn why Craft, Bedrock, NEA and 100s more trust Harmonic’s data to source deals. Harmonic is the most complete startup database, finding new companies as soon as they incorporate and tracking them through IPO. Head to https://bit.ly/harmonicturpentine and make sure to mention Turpentine VC during your demo._SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: Econ102@Turpentine.co_Recommended Podcast: Company BreakdownsEach episode of Company Breakdowns dives into S-1s and series B-and-beyond companies, interviewing founders and investors to break down the companies. First episode is on Rubrik - which just IPO'd. Coming up this season: Databricks, Reddit + more,SpotifyApple_LINKS:Noahpinion: https://www.noahpinion.blog/_X / TWITTER:@noahpinion (Noah)@eriktorenberg (Erik)@TurpentineMedia (Turpentine)_TIMESTAMPS:(00:00) Intro(00:53) What if the dollar was no longer the world’s reserve currency?(04:50) Fair taxation(08:20) Level of redistribution in the US(10:30) Lowering inequality by increasing economic growth(18:26) Sponsor: Beehiiv | Harmonic(20:26) Education reform(30:07) Fixing rising costs in healthcare(34:12) Limitations of UBI(39:09) Massive gap between US and China’s manufacturing capacity(46:25) US potential gateway to Africa(54:28) Impact of foreign aid(59:20) Revitalizing small US cities(01:04:58) Wrap Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

24 Huhti 20241h 3min

WW3 Analysis: China, The US, Ukraine, The Middle East

WW3 Analysis: China, The US, Ukraine, The Middle East

In this week’s episode, Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg tackle more listeners' questions focused on conflicts and war. They cover various defense strategies, emphasizing the urgency of revitalizing the U.S. defense industrial base to prepare for potential conflicts. They discuss the differences between authoritarian and democratic powers, highlighting the significant risk of World War III and the importance of alliance building, particularly with countries like Japan, India, and European nations to counterbalance China's growing influence and the new ‘Axis’. Happy birthday Noah!This show is produced by Turpentine: a network of podcasts, newsletters, and more, covering technology, business, and culture — all from the perspective of industry insiders and experts. We’re launching new shows every week, and we’re looking for industry-leading sponsors — if you think that might be you and your company, email us at erik@turpentine.co._SPONSOR: HARMONIC🧲 Learn why Craft, Bedrock, NEA and 100s more trust Harmonic’s data to source deals. Harmonic is the most complete startup database, finding new companies as soon as they incorporate and tracking them through IPO. Head to https://bit.ly/harmonicturpentine and make sure to mention Turpentine VC during your demo._SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: Econ102@Turpentine.co_Recommended Podcast: Company BreakdownsEach episode of Company Breakdowns dives into S-1s and series B-and-beyond companies, interviewing founders and investors to break down the companies. First episode is on Rubrik - which just IPO'd. Coming up this season: Databricks, Reddit + more,Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/0epyYBAxLeF0PsNagdDJAJApple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/company-breakdowns/id1743119197_LINKS:Noahpinion: https://www.noahpinion.blog/WW3? : https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/americans-are-still-not-worried-enough_X / TWITTER:@noahpinion (Noah)@eriktorenberg (Erik)@TurpentineMedia (Turpentine)_TIMESTAMPS:(00:00) Episode Preview(01:57) The defense industrial base(08:17) Precedents of wars leading to World War II and the Cold War(14:57) Contrast of Xi Jinping and Putin(21:46) Sponsor: Turpentine(22:33) China's production advantage(27:54) Evaluating the new axis of power(33:51) Complexities of manufacturing and warfare(41:02) Impact of war on economies(44:13) Exploring the Israel-Palestine conflict(49:41) Potential for peace in the Middle East(55:28) Wrap Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

17 Huhti 202456min

Fixing the US Economy: the Debt, Inequality, Biden/Trump Economic Predictions

Fixing the US Economy: the Debt, Inequality, Biden/Trump Economic Predictions

In this week’s episode, Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg dive into various econ topics and tackle listener questions! They cover: government spending and the national debt, discussion on taxation, wealth taxes and economic outcome of the next U.S. election, as well as differences in respect and status in the United States and Japan, and lessons learned from deficit spending.This show is produced by Turpentine: a network of podcasts, newsletters, and more, covering technology, business, and culture — all from the perspective of industry insiders and experts. We’re launching new shows every week, and we’re looking for industry-leading sponsors — if you think that might be you and your company, email us at erik@turpentine.co._SPONSOR: HARMONIC🧲 Learn why Craft, Bedrock, NEA and 100s more trust Harmonic’s data to source deals. Harmonic is the most complete startup database, finding new companies as soon as they incorporate and tracking them through IPO. Head to https://bit.ly/harmonicturpentine and make sure to mention Turpentine VC during your demo._SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: Econ102@Turpentine.co_Recommended Podcast: Company BreakdownsEach episode of Company Breakdowns dives into S-1s and series B-and-beyond companies, interviewing founders and investors to break down the companies. First episode is on Rubrik - which just IPO'd. Coming up this season: Databricks, Reddit + more,Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/0epyYBAxLeF0PsNagdDJAJApple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/company-breakdowns/id1743119197_Links:Noah Smith's Noahpinion https://www.noahpinion.blog_ X / TWITTER:@noahpinion (Noah)@eriktorenberg (Erik)@TurpentineMedia (Turpentine)_Timestamps:(00:00) Episode Preview(01:02) Noah’s Japan trip(02:33) Why is the U.S. doing so much deficit spending?(08:04) Post-COVID economic response(14:52) Levers of dealing with the National debt(21:27) 2024 Election Speculations: Economic outcomes of Trump vs. Biden(25:26) Pros and cons of a Wealth tax(30:35) Sponsor: Turpentine(32:34) Impact of Funding the IRS and repealing Trump's tax cuts(33:01) Reducing government spending(41:11) Addressing economic inequality in the U.S.(51:26) Wrap Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

10 Huhti 202452min

Analyzing Economies Round 3: Middle East, Africa, South America, and North America

Analyzing Economies Round 3: Middle East, Africa, South America, and North America

This episode is a continuation of analyzing the economies around the world, with Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg focusing on the Middle East, Africa, South America, and North America. They discuss the economic challenges and solutions in Egypt and Saudi Arabia, as well as Latin America’s drug problem and Canada’s economic stagnation.This show is produced by Turpentine: a network of podcasts, newsletters, and more, covering technology, business, and culture — all from the perspective of industry insiders and experts. We’re launching new shows every week, and we’re looking for industry-leading sponsors — if you think that might be you and your company, email us at erik@turpentine.co._SPONSOR: HARMONIC🧲 Learn why Craft, Bedrock, NEA and 100s more trust Harmonic’s data to source deals. Harmonic is the most complete startup database, finding new companies as soon as they incorporate and tracking them through IPO. Head to https://bit.ly/harmonicturpentine and make sure to mention Turpentine VC during your demo._SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: Econ102@Turpentine.co_Recommended Podcast: Company BreakdownsEach episode of Company Breakdowns dives into S-1s and series B-and-beyond companies, interviewing founders and investors to break down the companies. First episode is on Rubrik - which just IPO'd. Coming up this season: Databricks, Reddit + more,SpotifyApple_Links:Noah Smith's Noahpinion https://www.noahpinion.blog_ X / TWITTER:@noahpinion (Noah)@eriktorenberg (Erik)@TurpentineMedia (Turpentine)_TIMESTAMPS:(00:00) Intro(00:32) Egypt's economic challenges(05:25) How rich is Saudi Arabia(13:57) Sponsor: Turpentine(15:13) Africa’s population growth and demographic dynamics(32:49) Africa’s economic potential(38:58) Mexico's manufacturing and security woes(43:48) Brazil's potential in South American manufacturing(48:01) Latin America's fight against inequality(55:12) Dominican Republic's economic success(01:00:51) Canada's economic stagnation(01:05:33) Wrap  Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

2 Huhti 20241h 5min

Analyzing Economies: England, France, Germany, Poland, Turkey, and the EU/European Immigration

Analyzing Economies: England, France, Germany, Poland, Turkey, and the EU/European Immigration

In our second installment of Analyzing the Economies Around the World, Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg cover Europe and Turkey. They discuss the UK's productivity issues, France's nuclear energy investments, Germany's weaknesses, Poland's economic success, Turkey's economic policies, and immigration challenges across the EU and Europe.This show is produced by Turpentine: a network of podcasts, newsletters, and more, covering technology, business, and culture — all from the perspective of industry insiders and experts. We’re launching new shows every week, and we’re looking for industry-leading sponsors — if you think that might be you and your company, email us at erik@turpentine.co._SPONSOR: HARMONIC🧲 Learn why Craft, Bedrock, NEA and 100s more trust Harmonic’s data to source deals. Harmonic is the most complete startup database, finding new companies as soon as they incorporate and tracking them through IPO. Head to https://bit.ly/harmonicturpentine and make sure to mention Turpentine VC during your demo._SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: Econ102@Turpentine.co_Recommended Podcast: Company BreakdownsEach episode of Company Breakdowns dives into S-1s and series B-and-beyond companies, interviewing founders and investors to break down the companies. First episode is on Rubrik - which just IPO'd. Coming up this season: Databricks, Reddit + more,SpotifyApple_Links:Noah Smith's Noahpinion https://www.noahpinion.blog_ X / TWITTER:@noahpinion (Noah)@eriktorenberg (Erik)@TurpentineMedia (Turpentine)_TIMESTAMPS:(00:00) Intro(00:30) UK's economic challenges(07:25) France's nuclear power success(12:02) Germany’s trust problem(24:28) Sponsor: Turpentine(25:36) Italy’s stagnant and declining economy(26:33) Poland's economic rise(31:24) Poland responding to external threats(32:25) Europe's immigration challenges(45:13) EU's future despite economic and regulatory obstacles.(52:34) Turkey's economic landscape and prospects(58:17) Wrap Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

27 Maalis 202456min

Analyzing Economies: USA, China, Japan, Russia, India, Korea, and more

Analyzing Economies: USA, China, Japan, Russia, India, Korea, and more

In this episode, Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg talk about the world's biggest economies including US, China, Japan, Korea, Taiwan, Russia, Australia, and more, looking at things like inflation, debt, industrial policy, and population challenges. They talk about what each country does well and where they might struggle, and offer ideas about what could happen next.This show is produced by Turpentine: a network of podcasts, newsletters, and more, covering technology, business, and culture — all from the perspective of industry insiders and experts. We’re launching new shows every week, and we’re looking for industry-leading sponsors — if you think that might be you and your company, email us at erik@turpentine.co._SPONSOR: HARMONIC🧲 Learn why Craft, Bedrock, NEA and 100s more trust Harmonic’s data to source deals. Harmonic is the most complete startup database, finding new companies as soon as they incorporate and tracking them through IPO. Head to https://bit.ly/harmonicturpentine and make sure to mention Turpentine VC during your demo._SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: Econ102@Turpentine.co-RECOMMENDED PODCAST: Autopilot explores the adoption and rollout of AI in the industries that drive the economy and the dynamic founders bringing rapid change to slow-moving industries. From law, to hardware, to aviation, Will Summerlin interviews founders backed by Benchmark, Greylock, and more to learn how they're automating at the frontiers in entrenched industries.Listen on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/6YQZkKHN7EP2yWedAvSxBC?si=18377c69a2804333Listen on Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/autopilot-with-will-summerlin/id1738163836.-SPONSOR: BRAVEGet first-party targeting with Brave's private ad platform: cookieless and future proof ad formats for all your business needs. Performance meets privacy. Head to https://brave.com/brave-ads/ and mention “MoZ” when signing up for a 25% discount on your first campaign.-Links:Noah Smith's Noahpinion https://www.noahpinion.blog- X / TWITTER:@noahpinion (Noah)@eriktorenberg (Erik)@TurpentineMedia (Turpentine)-TIMESTAMPS:(00:00) Intro(01:03) U.S. Economy: Trends and Concerns(08:01) Transition to China's Economy: Massive Property Bust(15:28) Sponsor: Brave | Turpentine(21:36) Segue to Japan's Economy: Key Hub of the Electronics Manufacturing(30:11) Korean Economic Struggles(33:05) South Korea's Technological Capabilities and International Relations(34:14) Exploring Taiwan's Economy and Challenges(36:22) Indonesia's Manufacturing Shift(37:55) Vietnam's Economic Strategy and Development Needs(40:31) India's Poverty Reduction and Infrastructure Investments(44:26) Pakistan Economic Mismanagement(48:38) Philippines: Underrated Investment Destination(49:33) Transition to Australia: The Progressive Utopia(52:02) Russia Economy at War(59:59) Wrap Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

21 Maalis 202458min

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