Who Profits from AI?

This week, Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg discuss the political nuances that influence the Republican and Democratic parties in the U.S. They explore the historical shifts in party dynamics, immigration policies, and the evolving economic strategies under potential future administrations. --🔥 Apply to join over 400 Founders and Execs in the Turpentine Network: https://www.turpentinenetwork.co/--RECOMMENDED PODCAST:🎙️ This Won't Last - Eavesdrop on Keith Rabois, Kevin Ryan, Logan Bartlett, and Zach Weinberg's monthly backchannel. They unpack their hottest takes on the future of tech, business, venture, investing, and politics.Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/id1765665937Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/2HwSNeVLL1MXy0RjFPyOSzYouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@ThisWontLastpodcast--SPONSORS: GiveWellGiveWell spends 50,000 hours every year doing deep-dives into different charitable programs to try to find the ways to do the most good for your dollar. GiveWell has now spent over 17 years researching charitable organizations and only directs funding to a few of the HIGHEST-IMPACT opportunities they’ve found. Visit https://www.givewell.org to find out more or make a donation. Select PODCAST and enter Econ 102 at checkout to make sure they know you heard about them from us. Weights & Biases Weights & Biases Weave is a lightweight AI developer toolkit designed to simplify your LLM app development. With Weave, you can trace and debug input, metadata and output with just 2 lines of code. Make real progress on your LLM development and visit the following link to get started with Weave today: https://wandb.me/crNetSuiteMore than 40,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. If you're looking for an ERP platform, get a one-of-a-kind flexible financing program on NetSuite: https://netsuite.com/102--SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: Econ102@Turpentine.co--FOLLOW ON X:@noahpinion@eriktorenberg@turpentinemedia--LINKS:Noahpinion: https://www.noahpinion.blog/The Democrats are a strong party, the Republicans are a weak party: https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/the-democrats-are-a-strong-party--TIMESTAMPS:(00:00) Intro(00:43) Noah's kook and Japanese influence(01:56) Trump and the Republican party(07:44) Role of party elders and Biden's decision(13:31) Historical context of party strength(19:42) Sponsors: GiveWell | Weights & Biases(21:53) Future of the Republican party(29:14) Immigration and labor laws(30:48) Historical context of immigrant voting(35:47) Sponsor: Netsuite(36:44) Democratic party and immigration policies(45:57) Foreign policy dynamics(52:34) Kamala Harris's economic plan(56:21) Wrap

9 Loka 202454min

This week, Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg unpack China's economic strategies under Xi Jinping, from the controversial tech crackdown to the ambitious Belt and Road Initiative. They explore the intricacies of international currency dynamics, dissect Ben Bernanke's pivotal role in the 2008 financial crisis, and examine the complex effects of brain drain on developing nations.--🔥 Apply to join over 400 Founders and Execs in the Turpentine Network: https://www.turpentinenetwork.co/--RECOMMENDED PODCAST:🎙️ This Won't Last - Eavesdrop on Keith Rabois, Kevin Ryan, Logan Bartlett, and Zach Weinberg's monthly backchannel. They unpack their hottest takes on the future of tech, business, venture, investing, and politics.Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/id1765665937Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/2HwSNeVLL1MXy0RjFPyOSzYouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@ThisWontLastpodcast--SPONSORS: GiveWellGiveWell spends 50,000 hours every year doing deep-dives into different charitable programs to try to find the ways to do the most good for your dollar. GiveWell has now spent over 17 years researching charitable organizations and only directs funding to a few of the HIGHEST-IMPACT opportunities they’ve found. Visit https://www.givewell.org to find out more or make a donation. Select PODCAST and enter Econ 102 at checkout to make sure they know you heard about them from us. Weights & Biases Weights & Biases Weave is a lightweight AI developer toolkit designed to simplify your LLM app development. With Weave, you can trace and debug input, metadata and output with just 2 lines of code. Make real progress on your LLM development and visit the following link to get started with Weave today: https://wandb.me/crAltea🚀Elevate your investment game with Altea by Alts.co. Discover vetted deals in unconventional asset classes, network with captivating individuals, and indulge in exclusive travel experiences. Ready to invest in pro sports teams or film financing? Apply now at www.alts.co/102 and redefine your investment journey.Dealcraft🎙️ Dealcraft: Insights from Great Negotiators is the brand new weekly podcast that features interviews with world’s greatest dealmakers and diplomats, including Former Secretary of State Henry Kissinger, Blackstone CEO Steve Schwarzman, and music industry super-lawyer John Branca, on their most challenging negotiations. Each episode, host Jim Sebenius (Harvard Business School professor and renowned negotiation expert) relates fascinating deal stories and distills useful insights for listeners to apply in their toughest deals and disputes.Apple: https://link.chtbl.com/3CG3TbHY?sid=Turpentine--SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: Econ102@Turpentine.co--FOLLOW ON X:@noahpinion@eriktorenberg@turpentinemedia--LINKS:Noahpinion: https://www.noahpinion.blog/--TIMESTAMPS:(00:00) Intro(01:02) Japan's economic revival(03:18) Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) insights(11:27) Brain drain vs. Brain gain(18:30) Sponsors: GiveWell | Weights & Biases(20:38) Impact of U.S. inflation on global economies(24:26) Countries reliance of dollar(28:22) Future of the US dollar as a reserve currency(30:58) China's economic stimulus and bank bailouts(35:23) Sponsors: Alts | Dealcraft(37:16) 2008 bank bailout(39:02) Xi Jinping's economic and political missteps(44:37) Belt and Road initiative(47:15) China's internal struggles and leadership(49:42) Strategies for China's future success(53:25) Wrap

2 Loka 202450min

In today’s episode, Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg dive into the complexities of immigration, global economic development, and cultural stereotypes. Noah also shares insights from his upcoming book on reviving Japan's economy, examining strategies like innovation, reforming large corporations, and attracting foreign investments.--🔥 Apply to join over 400 Founders and Execs in the Turpentine Network: https://www.turpentinenetwork.co/--RECOMMENDED PODCAST:🎙️ This Won't Last - Eavesdrop on Keith Rabois, Kevin Ryan, Logan Bartlett, and Zach Weinberg's monthly backchannel. They unpack their hottest takes on the future of tech, business, venture, investing, and politics.Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/id1765665937Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/2HwSNeVLL1MXy0RjFPyOSzYouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@ThisWontLastpodcast--SPONSORS: Weights & Biases Weights & Biases Weave is a lightweight AI developer toolkit designed to simplify your LLM app development. With Weave, you can trace and debug input, metadata and output with just 2 lines of code. Make real progress on your LLM development and visit the following link to get started with Weave today: https://wandb.me/crNetSuite📈 More than 40,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud ERP bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. Download the CFO's guide to AI and Machine Learning at https://netsuite.com/102WorkOS🛠️ Building an enterprise-ready SaaS app? WorkOS has got you covered with easy-to-integrate APIs for SAML, SCIM, and more. Join top startups like Vercel, Perplexity, Jasper & Webflow in powering your app with WorkOS. Enjoy a free tier for up to 1M users! Start now at https://bit.ly/WorkOS-Turpentine-Network--SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: Econ102@Turpentine.co--FOLLOW ON X:@noahpinion@eriktorenberg@turpentinemedia--LINKS:Noahpinion: https://www.noahpinion.blog/--TIMESTAMPS:(00:00) Intro(00:46) Noah's book preview: Reviving Japan's Economy(02:02) Role of foreign investment in Japan(06:28) Prediction markets and economic bets(11:13) Developed vs. Developing economies(17:51) Sponsors: Weights & Biases | Netsuite(19:50) China's future economic challenges(24:30) Immigration and small town revitalization(27:27) Balaji’s analogy on immigration (34:51) Balanced approach to immigration(39:28) Sponsor: WorkOs(40:30) Reviving midwest towns(44:13) Historical perspectives on immigration(51:35) Challenging scientific racism(01:01:37) Celebrating the average American(01:02:43) Wrap

26 Syys 20241h

In today’s episode, Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg explore the complexities surrounding fracking, China's economic growth and challenges, and tackle a controversy in Springfield involving false claims about Haitian immigrants and the larger implications for U.S. immigration policy.--🔥 Apply to join over 400 Founders and Execs in the Turpentine Network: https://www.turpentinenetwork.co/--RECOMMENDED PODCAST:🎙️ This Won't Last - Eavesdrop on Keith Rabois, Kevin Ryan, Logan Bartlett, and Zach Weinberg's monthly backchannel. They unpack their hottest takes on the future of tech, business, venture, investing, and politics.Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/id1765665937Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/2HwSNeVLL1MXy0RjFPyOSzYouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@ThisWontLastpodcast--SPONSORS: Weights & Biases Weights & Biases Weave is a lightweight AI developer toolkit designed to simplify your LLM app development. With Weave, you can trace and debug input, metadata and output with just 2 lines of code. Make real progress on your LLM development and visit the following link to get started with Weave today: https://wandb.me/crNetSuiteMore than 37,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. If you're looking for an ERP platform, get a one-of-a-kind flexible financing program on NetSuite: https://netsuite.com/102WorkOS🛠️ Building an enterprise-ready SaaS app? WorkOS has got you covered with easy-to-integrate APIs for SAML, SCIM, and more. Join top startups like Vercel, Perplexity, Jasper & Webflow in powering your app with WorkOS. Enjoy a free tier for up to 1M users! Start now at https://bit.ly/WorkOS-Turpentine-Network--SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: Econ102@Turpentine.co--FOLLOW ON X:@noahpinion@eriktorenberg@turpentinemedia--LINKS:Noahpinion: https://www.noahpinion.blog/Harris needs to be Pennsylvania fracking's biggest champion: https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/harris-needs-to-be-pennsylvania-frackings--TIMESTAMPS:(00:00) Intro(00:38) Evolution of fracking(02:30) Environmental impact of fracking(05:14) Fracking and geopolitics(07:08) Shift to renewable energy(11:18) Challenges and future of wind energy(15:16) Nuclear power(18:45) Sponsors: Weights & Biases | Netsuite(20:10) China's economic growth and urban development(32:51) Sponsor: WorkOs(33:16) Understanding recessions(35:52) Keynesian recession and deflation (38:00) China's economic evolution(42:39) Haitian immigration controversy(48:55) Moral implications of political falsehoods(58:12) Reflecting on immigration and American values(01:00:47) Wrap

18 Syys 202459min

In today’s episode, Noah Smith and Brad DeLong tackle pressing topics such as the potential for a 'China Shock 2', the effectiveness of missile defense systems, and the shifting role of economists since the Great Recession. They also explore the nuances of economic theory, policy implementation, and real-world outcomes, particularly in a fast-paced information age. --🔥 Apply to join over 400 Founders and Execs in the Turpentine Network: https://www.turpentinenetwork.co/--RECOMMENDED PODCAST:🎙️ This Won't Last - Eavesdrop on Keith Rabois, Kevin Ryan, Logan Bartlett, and Zach Weinberg's monthly backchannel. They unpack their hottest takes on the future of tech, business, venture, investing, and politics.Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/id1765665937Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/2HwSNeVLL1MXy0RjFPyOSzYouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@ThisWontLastpodcast--SPONSORS: NetSuiteMore than 37,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. If you're looking for an ERP platform, get a one-of-a-kind flexible financing program on NetSuite: https://netsuite.com/102Altea🚀Elevate your investment game with Altea by Alts.co. Discover vetted deals in unconventional asset classes, network with captivating individuals, and indulge in exclusive travel experiences. Ready to invest in pro sports teams or film financing? Apply now at www.alts.co/102 and redefine your investment journey.WorkOS🛠️ Building an enterprise-ready SaaS app? WorkOS has got you covered with easy-to-integrate APIs for SAML, SCIM, and more. Join top startups like Vercel, Perplexity, Jasper & Webflow in powering your app with WorkOS. Enjoy a free tier for up to 1M users! Start now at https://bit.ly/WorkOS-Turpentine-Network--SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: Econ102@Turpentine.co--FOLLOW ON X:@noahpinion@eriktorenberg@turpentinemedia--LINKS:Noahpinion: https://www.noahpinion.blog/Hexapedia links:APPLE - https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/hexapodia-is-the-key-insight-by-noah-smith-brad-delong/id1552990332SPOTIFY - https://open.spotify.com/show/2uHLn3k2PrhY3exPs1sUeBReferences:Brad DeLong: https://braddelong.substack.com/Smith, Noah. 2024. “Why so many of us were wrong about missile defense”. Noahpinion. April 15. Smith, Noah. 2024. “Twilight of the economists?” Noahpinion. April 12. Smith, Noah. 2024. “The decade of the Second China Shock”. March 23.Vinge, Vernor. 1999. A Deepness in the Sky. New York: Tor Books--TIMESTAMPS:(00:00) Intro(02:10) China Shock 2.0(07:30) Debating U.S. policy responses(09:59) China's manufacturing and global trade(18:21) Market economies of Europe and Japan(22:58) Sponsors: Netsuite | Alts(25:02) Importance of taking preemptive actions(32:08) Financial capitalism vs. Industrial policy(33:40) Sponsor: WorkOS(35:21) Financial Capitalism and Intel's Struggles(35:51) Critique of economists and economics(37:03) State of the economics profession(40:31) Economists' influence on policy(48:18) Missile defense and Its Implications(51:55) Russia's military strategy and economic constraints(59:56) Future of warfare and economic mobilization(01:07:14) Wrap

13 Syys 20241h 5min

In today’s episode, Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg summon their next dream guest and tackle some listener questions, including the role of economists in predicting outcomes, China's industrial strategy, the new axis, the state of Germany and Britain, and the legacy of neoliberalism.--🔥 Apply to join over 400 Founders and Execs in the Turpentine Network: https://www.turpentinenetwork.co/--RECOMMENDED PODCAST:🎙️ This Won't Last - Eavesdrop on Keith Rabois, Kevin Ryan, Logan Bartlett, and Zach Weinberg's monthly backchannel. They unpack their hottest takes on the future of tech, business, venture, investing, and politics.Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/id1765665937Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/2HwSNeVLL1MXy0RjFPyOSzYouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@ThisWontLastpodcast--SPONSORS: WorkOS🛠️ Building an enterprise-ready SaaS app? WorkOS has got you covered with easy-to-integrate APIs for SAML, SCIM, and more. Join top startups like Vercel, Perplexity, Jasper & Webflow in powering your app with WorkOS. Enjoy a free tier for up to 1M users! Start now at https://bit.ly/WorkOS-Turpentine-Network--SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: Econ102@Turpentine.co--FOLLOW ON X:@noahpinion@eriktorenberg@turpentinemedia--LINKS:Noahpinion: https://www.noahpinion.blog/--TIMESTAMPS:(00:00) Intro(00:26) Noah's trip to Poland(01:31) Summoning dream guests - Sergey come on the pod!(02:43) Mailbag Q: Why listen to economists?(09:18) Corporate income taxes and policy(11:59) Unrealized gains(15:18) China's industrial strategy and global relations(17:37) The New Axis(21:25) Potential for World War III(24:06) Sponsor: WorkOS(25:08) Best industrial policy for small landlocked South Asian nations(25:47) Drug prizes in the US(27:29) Nationalistic standpoint and fiscal rules(31:08) Controversies around national sales tax(33:01) Geothermal energy and the future of oil industry(35:54) Germany's energy and economic policies(38:52) State of Britain and Immigration Issues(47:41) The legacy of Neoliberalism(53:13) Wrap

5 Syys 202452min

This week, Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg are joined by Dario Amodei, CEO and Co-founder of Anthropic. Dario talks about the economics of AI development, the comparative advantage of AI companies like Anthropic, AI safety, and his stance on California's SB 1047 bill. They also discuss the impacts of AI on global power dynamics, competition between the US and China, and inequality in an AI-powered world.--🔥 Apply to join over 400 Founders and Execs in the Turpentine Network: https://www.turpentinenetwork.co/--RECOMMENDED PODCAST:🎙️ This Won't Last - Eavesdrop on Keith Rabois, Kevin Ryan, Logan Bartlett, and Zach Weinberg's monthly backchannel. They unpack their hottest takes on the future of tech, business, venture, investing, and politics.Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/id1765665937Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/2HwSNeVLL1MXy0RjFPyOSzYouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@ThisWontLastpodcast--SPONSORS: NetSuite | Babbel | WorkOS📈 More than 37,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. If you're looking for an ERP platform, get a one-of-a-kind flexible financing program on NetSuite: netsuite.com/102🌐 Ready to achieve your 2024 goals? Start learning a new language with Babbel in just three weeks. Enjoy app lessons, live classes, and podcasts designed for real-world conversations. Get up to 60% off at babbel.com/econ102🛠️ Building an enterprise-ready SaaS app? WorkOS has got you covered with easy-to-integrate APIs for SAML, SCIM, and more. Join top startups like Vercel, Perplexity, Jasper & Webflow in powering your app with WorkOS. Enjoy a free tier for up to 1M users! Start now at https://bit.ly/WorkOS-Turpentine-Network--SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: Econ102@Turpentine.co--FOLLOW ON X:@noahpinion@eriktorenberg@anthropicAI@turpentinemedia--LINKS:Anthropic: https://www.anthropic.com/Noahpinion: https://www.noahpinion.blog/Elon Musk's endorsement of SB 1047: https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1828205685386936567--TIMESTAMPS:(00:00) Intro(02:06) Dario’s intellectual evolution(04:18) Is Google the Bell Labs of AI?(07:48) Economic moats in AI(10:13) Scaling hypothesis and AI’s future(14:46) National security and AI(16:44) Leopold Aschenbrenner's essay(18:14) AI’s impact on business models(24:19) Noah's big thesis(27:13) Sponsors: NetSuite | Babbel(29:23) AI arms races?(33:41) AI’s impact on labor and skill distribution(38:05) Sponsor: WorkOS(39:06) Future of AI and a hyperscaling world(41:42) A vision of radical abundance(47:14) AI safety and inequality(51:23) The SB 1047 debate(56:13) Rabbit alignment problem(58:41) Wrap

29 Elo 202456min

In today’s episode, Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg explore the the policies of Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, complexities of housing affordability and wealth storage, challenges in immigration policies, and critique the effectiveness of tariffs.🔥 Apply to join over 400 Founders and Execs in the Turpentine Network: https://hmplogxqz0y.typeform.com/to/JCkphVqjRECOMMENDED PODCAST:🎙️ This Won't Last - Eavesdrop on Keith Rabois, Kevin Ryan, Logan Bartlett, and Zach Weinberg's monthly backchannel. They unpack their hottest takes on the future of tech, business, venture, investing, and politics.Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/id1765665937Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/2HwSNeVLL1MXy0RjFPyOSzYouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@ThisWontLastpodcast--SPONSORS: WORKOS | BABBEL🛠️ Building an enterprise-ready SaaS app? WorkOS has got you covered with easy-to-integrate APIs for SAML, SCIM, and more. Join top startups like Vercel, Perplexity, Jasper & Webflow in powering your app with WorkOS. Enjoy a free tier for up to 1M users! Start now at https://bit.ly/WorkOS-Turpentine-Network🌐 Ready to achieve your 2024 goals? Start learning a new language with Babbel in just three weeks. Enjoy app lessons, live classes, and podcasts designed for real-world conversations. Get up to 60% off at babbel.com/econ102--SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: Econ102@Turpentine.co--LINKS:Noahpinion: https://www.noahpinion.blog/Harris has the right idea on housing: https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/harris-has-the-right-idea-on-housing--TIMESTAMPS:(00:00) Intro(00:48) Discussing housing policy(05:53) Singapore's housing model(10:54) Kamala Harris' housing plan(12:32) Federal vs. Local housing regulations(14:32) Grocery store price gouging debate(22:28) Mass deportation policies(24:23) Sponsors: WorkOS | Babbel(26:51) Illegal Immigration(31:58) Economic impact of immigration(37:12) Cultural disruptions from immigration(43:37) Tariffs and trade policies(49:35) Republican focus on immigration(57:31) Export controls and Chinese chip industry(01:00:29) Wrap

21 Elo 202458min