SI396: Markets Look Calm… But Are They? ft. Rob Carver

Today, Rob Carver joins us to reflect on a market environment that appears calm on the surface but feels increasingly fragile underneath. From oil market distortions and muted reactions to geopolitical risk to the steady resilience of equities, the conversation questions whether price action is telling the full story. Rob shares insights from his own performance, including why slower trend signals have recently dominated and why he is running lower risk despite positive returns. The discussion moves into portfolio construction, return stacking, and the growing role of ETFs, alongside a candid look at where complexity adds value in systematic investing and where it does not.

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Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Intro & current market backdrop

04:30 - Oil market dislocations and futures vs physical pricing

10:00 - Equities hitting highs despite geopolitical tension

13:30 - ETFs, fees, and structural shifts in investment vehicles

17:00 - Trend following performance update and April results

20:30 - Rob’s year-to-date and 12-month performance breakdown

25:00 - Why slow trend signals outperformed

27:30 - How to evaluate large CTA managers

31:00 - Where PhDs add value in systematic investing

43:00 - Signal weighting, crisis alpha, and portfolio construction

52:00 - Return stacking and diversifying equities

01:06:30 - Managed futures ETFs vs replication strategies

01:18:00 - Final thoughts and wrap-up

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