SI401: Why Trend Following Wins in Chaos ft. Nick Baltas

The world of systematic investing is evolving fast, and in this episode Nick Baltas joins Moritz Seibert to explore the explosive growth of QIS strategies, the current state of trend following in 2026, and the challenges facing systematic investors in today’s macro environment. They discuss crowding risks in quantitative strategies, the recent collapse in commodity curve carry, and why some trend managers continue to outperform through broader diversification and alternative markets. The conversation also dives into execution alpha, AI driven research workflows, inflation risks, and the ongoing institutional demand for systematic macro strategies. A sharp and highly practical discussion for anyone interested in trend following, QIS, commodities, and quantitative investing.

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

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Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Introduction to the episode

01:17 – Nick Baltas on AI, research, and market volatility

03:02 – Trend following performance update for May 2026

06:25 – What investors are focusing on in QIS strategies

10:14 – Is there cyclicality in investor demand for QIS?

15:25 – Wall Street Journal article on the growth of QIS

17:15 – Crowding risks and overlapping systematic strategies

24:15 – Can hedge funds front run QIS trades?

27:46 – Commodity curve carry explained

30:48 – Largest drawdown ever for commodity curve strategies

33:59 – Is now the right time to buy commodity curve carry?

37:20 – Why some curve carry implementations still made money

40:01 – Trend following performance across alternative vs traditional markets

44:21 – Why broader trend portfolios may improve Sharpe ratios

47:22 – Listener question: Is there alpha in execution?

49:53 – How CTAs think about execution and slippage

53:50 – Why trend following on single name equities is rare

57:58 – Chesapeake’s single name trend approach

59:04 – Final thoughts and wrap up

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2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

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