What's Really Happening With the Economy?

This week, Noah Smith and Stripe CEO Patrick Collison recorded a live conversation on Substack covering topics such as American technological leadership, global competition, industrial policy, foreign direct investment, post-financial crisis productivity trends, US financial system advantages, progressive policies, the middle class, tariffs, immigration, technological advancements like humanoid robots, Gen Z’s well-being, and key policy recommendations for economic and social progress. This conversation first aired in Noah's substack Noahpinion, so be sure to subscribe if you aren't already. -- 🙏 Help shape our show by taking our quick listener survey at https://bit.ly/TurpentinePulse. -- Highlights from the Episode: (for more head to https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/patrick-collison-interview-at-least) The U.S. has maintained its technological edge relative to most developed nations, particularly pulling ahead of Europe, Japan, and South Korea. A key U.S. advantage is its diverse financing system - about 80% of U.S. commercial lending is non-bank lending, compared to only 20% in the UK. The U.S. benefits from a large, unified domestic market, further strengthened by continued immigration, which attracts investment and fosters clustering effects, especially in sectors like software. There are concerns about Gen Z's reported lower life satisfaction and mental health challenges. Replacing NEPA with administrative review (similar to Japan's system). -- SPONSORS: NetSuite More than 41,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. Download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine learning: https://netsuite.com/102 Notion 📝Notion offers powerful workflow and automation templates, perfect for streamlining processes and laying the groundwork for AI-driven automation. With Notion AI, you can search across thousands of documents from various platforms, generating highly relevant analysis and content tailored just for you - try it for free at https://notion.com/upstreampod Found Found provides small business owners tools to track expenses, calculate taxes, manage cashflow, send invoices and more. Open a Found account for free at https://found.com/econ102. AdQuick The easiest way to book out-of-home ads (like billboards, vehicle wraps, and airport displays) the same way you would order an Uber. Ready to get your brand the attention it deserves? Visit https://adquick.com/ today to start reaching your customers in the real world.  -- SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: Econ102@Turpentine.co -- FOLLOW ON X: @patrickc @noahpinion @eriktorenberg @turpentinemedia -- RECOMMENDED IN THIS EPISODE: Noahpinion: https://www.noahpinion.blog/ Patrick Collison interview + at least five interesting things: https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/patrick-collison-interview-at-least Stripe: https://stripe.com/

7 Feb 49min

In this week’s episode of Econ 102, Noah Smith, with special guest Nathan Labenz (host of AI podcast The Cognitive Revolution) breaks down the current landscape of U.S.-China relations and how once-allies became rivals under Xi Jinping's aggressive strategies. While China shows growing AI capabilities like DeepSeek, Smith emphasizes that the real concern isn't about AI models but rather military applications like autonomous drones and precision weapons, suggesting that the next decade represents a critical period for managing tensions and establishing deterrence. -- 🙏 Help shape our show by taking our quick listener survey at https://bit.ly/TurpentinePulse. -- RECOMMENDED PODCAST: Check out Nathan Labenz's podcast The Cognitive Revolution Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-cognitive-revolution-ai-builders-researchers-and/id1669813431 Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/6yHyok3M3BjqzR0VB5MSyk YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@CognitiveRevolutionPodcast/ -- Highlights from the Episode: The US and China were largely de facto allies throughout the 20th century, except for brief periods like the Korean War. Xi Jinping's "great changes unseen in a century" doctrine signals intent to challenge US-led global order. US chip export controls have been effective at limiting China's advanced chip manufacturing. Military technology prioritizes maintaining a technological edge in precision weapons and autonomous systems, with conventional deterrence still key despite nuclear capabilities, while chip controls focus on preserving advantages in military applications over civilian technology. Concerns about AI competition include skepticism over maintaining US "AI supremacy," the potential difficulty in containing AI capabilities like those of DeepSeek, and the risk that an aggressive approach could escalate conflict. -- SPONSORS: NetSuite More than 41,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. Download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine learning: https://netsuite.com/102 Found Found provides small business owners tools to track expenses, calculate taxes, manage cashflow, send invoices and more. Open a Found account for free at https://found.com/econ102. AdQuick The easiest way to book out-of-home ads (like billboards, vehicle wraps, and airport displays) the same way you would order an Uber. Ready to get your brand the attention it deserves? Visit https://adquick.com/ today to start reaching your customers in the real world.  -- SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: Econ102@Turpentine.co -- FOLLOW ON X: @labenz @noahpinion @eriktorenberg @turpentinemedia -- RECOMMENDED IN THIS EPISODE: Noahpinion: https://www.noahpinion.blog/ Dwarkesh podcast with Sarah Paine https://youtu.be/fx6fakjQBdo?si=FR4ZGTGWzXsO4__E Book: Rush Doshi, The Long Game https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/52617647-the-long-game Book: John Mearsheimer Conventional Deterrence https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/224128.Conventional_Deterrence Noahpinion essay: Simple Lessons from China's Big AI Breakthrough https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/some-simple-lessons-from-chinas-big Noahpinion Essay: The Elemental Foe https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/the-elemental-foe?utm_source=publication-search

5 Feb 1h 5min

This week Noah Smith and economist Paul Krugman hopped on a call to discuss Paul's departure from the New York Times, the benefits of independent writing, U.S. manufacturing and industrial policy, geopolitics, Trump 2.0, and the impact of public opinion on economic and political discourse. This conversation first aired in Noah's substack Noahpinion, so be sure to subscribe if you aren't already. -- 🙏 Help shape our show by taking our quick listener survey at https://bit.ly/TurpentinePulse. -- Highlights from the Episode: (for more head to https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/paul-krugman-and-noah-smith-have) Discussed the transitioning from traditional media (NYT, Bloomberg) to Substack for greater editorial freedom and authentic voice, noting that traditional outlets still maintain an "establishment" mindset. On Substack, Krugman settlies on 1100 words per post and Noah aims for 2000-2500 words. Public perception of the economy often shifts dramatically based on political affiliation rather than actual economic conditions. How the Ukraine war has highlighted the importance of manufacturing capability for national security. Current Political Climate: Greater concern about current political risks compared to previous eras like the Reagan administration. Explored how national security concerns are reshaping trade policy thinking. -- SPONSORS: NetSuite More than 41,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. Download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine learning: https://netsuite.com/102 Notion 📝Notion offers powerful workflow and automation templates, perfect for streamlining processes and laying the groundwork for AI-driven automation. With Notion AI, you can search across thousands of documents from various platforms, generating highly relevant analysis and content tailored just for you - try it for free at https://notion.com/upstreampod AdQuick The easiest way to book out-of-home ads (like billboards, vehicle wraps, and airport displays) the same way you would order an Uber. Ready to get your brand the attention it deserves? Visit https://adquick.com/ today to start reaching your customers in the real world.  -- SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: Econ102@Turpentine.co -- FOLLOW ON X: @paulkrugman @noahpinion @eriktorenberg @turpentinemedia -- LINKS: Noahpinion: https://www.noahpinion.blog/ https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/paul-krugman-and-noah-smith-have

31 Jan 1h 9min

In this episode, Erik Torenberg and Noah Smith discuss wide range of topics, including Trump’s executive orders and their effects on U.S. politics, international tariffs, Michael Pettis's views on China's economy, the Middle East’s potential with solar energy, and Europe’s socio-political shifts, all through the lens of economics. -- 🙏 Help shape our show by taking our quick listener survey at https://bit.ly/TurpentinePulse. -- Highlights from the Episode: There's worry about potential economic instability if Trump's aggressive trade policies lead to stagflation. Concern about China potentially influencing Trump through various financial mechanisms, including cryptocurrency. The Middle East holds a surprisingly optimistic outlook, with the end of the "oil curse" prompting institutional growth, its geography offering ideal conditions for solar energy, and the potential for solar-powered desalination to transform agriculture. European countries struggle more with integration due to different cultural approaches and institutional structures. Interesting parallel drawn between Europe's historical transformation after the 30 Years War and potential for Middle East development. -- SPONSORS: NetSuite More than 41,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. Download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine learning: https://netsuite.com/102 Notion 📝Notion offers powerful workflow and automation templates, perfect for streamlining processes and laying the groundwork for AI-driven automation. With Notion AI, you can search across thousands of documents from various platforms, generating highly relevant analysis and content tailored just for you - try it for free at https://notion.com/upstreampod AdQuick The easiest way to book out-of-home ads (like billboards, vehicle wraps, and airport displays) the same way you would order an Uber. Ready to get your brand the attention it deserves? Visit https://adquick.com/ today to start reaching your customers in the real world.  -- SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: Econ102@Turpentine.co -- FOLLOW ON X: @noahpinion @eriktorenberg @turpentinemedia -- LINKS: Noahpinion: https://www.noahpinion.blog/

29 Jan 1h 7min

While traveling to Taiwan, Noah Smith sat down with ChinaTalk's managing editor and Taipei correspondent Lily Ottinger to explore wide range of geopolitical and economic issues, including the potential impacts of a second Trump administration on Asia, where Elon Musk stands on Taiwan, nuclear proliferation, China's economic strategies, Taiwan's defense and diplomatic policies, and demographic shifts. -- 🙏 Help shape our show by taking our quick listener survey at https://bit.ly/TurpentinePulse. -- RECOMMENDED PODCAST: ChinaTalk Check out ChinaTalk. Conversations exploring China, technology, and US-China relations. Guests include a wide range of analysts, policymakers, and academics. Hosted by Jordan Schneider. Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/chinatalk/id1289062927 Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/448WaJhgJGJKnQ3HCE2EBa YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@ChinaTalkMedia -- Highlights from the Episode: Trump's coalition now includes a powerful tech sector pushing for deregulation, while his personal corruption and susceptibility to influence could make him vulnerable to China, particularly through platforms like TikTok, with export controls serving as a key indicator of his policy stance toward Beijing. Nuclear weapons have historically proven effective at preventing invasion of states that possess them. China is experiencing debt deflation similar to Japan's 1990s situation, where falling prices increase the real burden of debt. Xi Jinping's conservative economic views, particularly resistance to stimulus and healthcare spending, may prolong recovery. Taiwan's laid-back culture and success stand in stark contrast to mainland China's approach. Under Xi, China has reversed some of the liberalization that occurred under previous leaders. -- SPONSORS: NetSuite More than 41,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. Download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine learning: https://netsuite.com/102 Notion 📝Notion offers powerful workflow and automation templates, perfect for streamlining processes and laying the groundwork for AI-driven automation. With Notion AI, you can search across thousands of documents from various platforms, generating highly relevant analysis and content tailored just for you - try it for free at https://notion.com/upstreampod AdQuick The easiest way to book out-of-home ads (like billboards, vehicle wraps, and airport displays) the same way you would order an Uber. Ready to get your brand the attention it deserves? Visit https://adquick.com/ today to start reaching your customers in the real world.  -- SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: Econ102@Turpentine.co -- FOLLOW ON X: @noahpinion @eriktorenberg @turpentinemedia -- LINKS: Noahpinion: https://www.noahpinion.blog/ ChinaTalk: https://www.chinatalk.media/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/lily-ottinger/

22 Jan 1h 11min

In this episode, Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg are joined by Scott Sumner, an American economist and previously the Director of the Program on Monetary Policy at the Mercatus Center at George Mason University, examine the impact of U.S.-China relations on economic and industrial policies, discussing topics such as tariffs, manufacturing capabilities, technologies like drones and batteries, climate change, defense strategies, and the evolving role of neoliberalism. -- 🙏 Help shape our show by taking our quick listener survey at https://bit.ly/TurpentinePulse. -- RECOMMENDED PODCAST: Modern Relationships Check out Modern Relationships, where Erik Torenberg interviews tech power couples and leading thinkers to explore how ambitious people actually make partnerships work. This season's guests include: Delian Asparouhov & Nadia Asparouhova, Kristen Berman & Phil Levin, Rob Henderson, and Liv Boeree & Igor Kurganov. Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/id1786227593 Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/5hJzs0gDg6lRT6r10mdpVg YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@ModernRelationshipsPod -- Highlights from the Episode: Neoliberalism vs. Industrial Policy: The world is moving away from neoliberalism toward industrial policy and authoritarian nationalism. Chinese manufacturing of green technology has supported global climate efforts, sparking debate over whether US trade barriers on Chinese green tech are counterproductive, alongside a discussion of carbon taxes versus other climate policies. China now matches US and allies combined in manufacturing capacity. Trump's tariffs are seen as ineffective for reindustrialization, while Biden's CHIPS Act and IRA are viewed as more successful in specific sectors, prompting a discussion on targeted versus broad industrial policies. Housing and healthcare costs are significant barriers to living standards. -- SPONSORS: Notion 📝Notion offers powerful workflow and automation templates, perfect for streamlining processes and laying the groundwork for AI-driven automation. With Notion AI, you can search across thousands of documents from various platforms, generating highly relevant analysis and content tailored just for you - try it for free at https://notion.com/upstreampod NetSuite More than 41,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. Download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine learning: https://netsuite.com/102 AdQuick The easiest way to book out-of-home ads (like billboards, vehicle wraps, and airport displays) the same way you would order an Uber. Ready to get your brand the attention it deserves? Visit https://adquick.com/ today to start reaching your customers in the real world.  -- SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: Econ102@Turpentine.co -- FOLLOW ON X: @ScottSumnerTMI @noahpinion @eriktorenberg @turpentinemedia -- LINKS: Noahpinion: https://www.noahpinion.blog/ The Pursuit of Happiness: https://scottsumner.substack.com/

15 Jan 57min

This week, Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg explore the possibility of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, Xi Jinping's political future, U.S.-China tensions, Trump's and Biden's policies, the 2019 global protests, China's economic troubles, and the challenges facing Western nations, while also emphasizing the need for bipartisan cooperation on U.S. industrial policy. -- 🙏 Help shape our show by taking our quick listener survey at https://bit.ly/TurpentinePulse. -- RECOMMENDED PODCAST: Modern Relationships Check out Modern Relationships, where Erik Torenberg interviews tech power couples and leading thinkers to explore how ambitious people actually make partnerships work. This season's guests include: Delian Asparouhov & Nadia Asparouhova, Kristen Berman & Phil Levin, Rob Henderson, and Liv Boeree & Igor Kurganov. Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/id1786227593 Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/5hJzs0gDg6lRT6r10mdpVg YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@ModernRelationshipsPod -- Highlights from the Episode: China faces significant economic headwinds with deflation and productivity challenges, requiring major policy interventions including potential bailouts to address their real estate crisis. Justin Trudeau's legacy in Canada is marked by criticism of his economic management, the country's ongoing productivity challenges, an overreliance on the oil sector as a temporary fix for deeper economic issues, and stagnant business investment despite partial recovery in oil prices. The conservative coalition in America has evolved to become more diverse, with Latino and Asian voter shifts playing a crucial role in recent electoral outcomes. Biden's industrial policy has shown success in areas like solar panel manufacturing and chip production, despite implementation challenges around DEI and union requirements. Elon Musk's involvement in European politics is analyzed in terms of how Europe could counter his influence through market access, with an observation that his focus on the region may be part of rebuilding a coalition after disputes over immigration. -- SPONSORS: Notion 📝Notion offers powerful workflow and automation templates, perfect for streamlining processes and laying the groundwork for AI-driven automation. With Notion AI, you can search across thousands of documents from various platforms, generating highly relevant analysis and content tailored just for you - try it for free at https://notion.com/upstreampod NetSuite More than 41,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. Download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine learning: https://netsuite.com/102 -- SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: Econ102@Turpentine.co -- FOLLOW ON X: @noahpinion @eriktorenberg @turpentinemedia -- LINKS: Noahpinion: https://www.noahpinion.blog/ The Players on the Eve of Destruction: https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/the-players-on-the-eve-of-destruction How do we measure whether China's economy is "ahead" of America's?: https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/how-do-we-measure-whether-chinas Biden's tarnished industrial legacy: https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/bidens-tarnished-industrial-legacy Trudeau was a poor steward of Canada's economy: https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/trudeau-was-a-poor-steward-of-canadas

9 Jan 1h 1min

This week, Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg discuss Silicon Valley's cultural influence, Marc Andreessen's predictions, what comes after wokeness, tariffs on China, Reaganomics, the 'polycrisis,' the future of industrial policy, and political dynamics involving Donald Trump, Elon Musk, and Paul Krugman. -- 🙏 Help shape our show by taking our quick listener survey at https://bit.ly/TurpentinePulse. -- RECOMMENDED PODCAST: Modern Relationships Check out Modern Relationships, where Erik Torenberg interviews tech power couples and leading thinkers to explore how ambitious people actually make partnerships work. Founders Fund's Delian Asparouhov and researcher Nadia Asparouhova kick off the series with an unfiltered conversation about their relationship evolution. Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/id1786227593 Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/5hJzs0gDg6lRT6r10mdpVg YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@ModernRelationshipsPod -- Highlights from the Episode: The decline of "wokeness" follows historical patterns of social movements, with San Francisco leading both adoption and abandonment of cultural trends. Industrial policy and targeted tariffs are crucial for American manufacturing competitiveness, particularly in relation to China. The challenges of implementing meaningful austerity measures in the US government and the necessity of making difficult policy choices. The complex relationship between Trump and Elon Musk's competing visions for America's economic and foreign policy future. Paul Krugman's legacy: Reviving Keynesian economics during Great Recession. -- SPONSORS: GiveWell GiveWell spends 50,000 hours every year doing deep-dives into different charitable programs to try to find the ways to do the most good for your dollar. GiveWell has now spent over 17 years researching charitable organizations and only directs funding to a few of the HIGHEST-IMPACT opportunities they’ve found. Visit https://www.givewell.org to find out more or make a donation. Select PODCAST and enter Econ 102 at checkout to make sure they know you heard about them from us. -- SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: Econ102@Turpentine.co -- FOLLOW ON X: @noahpinion @eriktorenberg @turpentinemedia -- LINKS: Noahpinion: https://www.noahpinion.blog/ Marc Andreessen on Trump, the vibe shift, and what’s after wokeness: https://youtu.be/l8X8jecivWw?si=ZKfdrvEetz8sZ6Hi The Wokeness series: https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/the-wokeness-series Ready Player One: https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/9969571-ready-player-one We Have Never Been Woke: https://www.amazon.com/Have-Never-Been-Woke-Contradictions/dp/0691232601 Musa al-Garbhi Substack: https://musaalgharbi.substack.com/ Akira: https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0094625/ The Big Chill: https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0085244/

2 Jan 1h 1min