a16z Podcast: The Marketplace Rules

This episode was originally published on our sister podcast, web3 with a16z. If you’re excited about the next generation of the internet, check out the show: https://link.chtbl.com/hrr_h-XCWe've heard a lot about the premise and the promise of prediction markets for a long time, but they finally hit the main stage with the most recent election. So what worked (and didn't) this time? Are they really better than pollsters, is polling dead? So in this conversation, we tease apart the hype from the reality of prediction markets, from the recent election to market foundations... going more deeply into the how, why, and where these markets work. We also discuss the design challenges and opportunities (including implications for builders throughout). And we also cover other information aggregation mechanisms -- from peer prediction to others -- given that prediction markets are part of a broader category of information-elicitation and information-aggregation mechanisms. Where do domain experts, superforecasters, pollsters, and journalists come in (and out)? Where do (and don't) blockchain and crypto technologies come in -- and what specific features (decentralization, transparency, real-time, open source, etc.) matter most, and in what contexts?  Finally, we discuss applications for prediction and decision markets -- things we could do right away to in the near-future to sci-fi -- touching on trends like futarchy, AI entering the market, DeSci, and more.  Our special expert guests are Alex Taborrok, professor of economics at George Mason University and Chair in Economics at the Mercatus Center; and Scott Duke Kominers, research partner at a16z crypto, and professor at Harvard Business School  -- both in conversation with Sonal Chokshi. As a reminder: None of the following should be taken as business, investment, legal, or tax advice; please see a16z.com/disclosures for more important information.  Resources:(from links to research mentioned to more on the topics discussed)The Use of Knowledge in Society by Friedrich Hayek (American Economic Review, 1945)Everything is priced in by rsd99 (r/wallstreetbets, 2019)Idea Futures (aka prediction markets, information markets) by Robin Hanson (1996)Auctions: The Social Construction of Value  by Charles SmithSocial value of public information by Stephen Morris and Hyun Song Shin (American Economic Review, December 2002)Using prediction markets to estimate the reproducibility of scientific research by Anna Dreber, Thomas Pfeiffer, Johan Almenberg, Siri Isaksson, Brad Wilson, Yiling Chen, Brian Nosek, and Magnus Johannesson (Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (November 2015)A solution to the single-question crowd wisdom problem by Dražen Prelec, Sebastian Seung, and John McCoy (Nature, January 2017)Targeting high ability entrepreneurs using community information: Mechanism design in the field by Reshmaan Hussam, Natalia Rigol, and Benjamin Roth (American Economic Review, March 2022)Information aggregation mechanisms: concept, design, and implementation for a sales forecasting problem by Charles Plott and Kay-Yut Chen, Hewlett Packard Laboratories (March 2002)If I had a million [on deciding to dump the CEO or not] by Robin Hanson (2008)Futarchy: Vote values, but bet beliefs by Robin Hanson (2013)From prediction markets to info finance by Vitalik Buterin (November 2024)Composability is innovation by Linda Xie (June 2021)Composability is to software as compounding interest is to finance by Chris Dixon (October 2021)resources & research on DAOs, a16z crypto Stay Updated: Let us know what you think: https://ratethispodcast.com/a16zFind a16z on Twitter: https://twitter.com/a16zFind a16z on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/a16zSubscribe on your favorite podcast app: https://a16z.simplecast.com/Follow our host: https://twitter.com/stephsmithioPlease note that the content here is for informational purposes only; should NOT be taken as legal, business, tax, or investment advice or be used to evaluate any investment or security; and is not directed at any investors or potential investors in any a16z fund. a16z and its affiliates may maintain investments in the companies discussed. For more details please see a16z.com/disclosures.

2 Dec 20241h 49min

Sales is evolving. AI-native systems are replacing traditional CRM tools, capturing unstructured insights from emails, Slack, surveys, and more in real time. These systems automate early-stage tasks like prospecting and qualification, enabling sales teams to focus on high-value work—while AI provides live coaching and drives decisions across sales, marketing, and product teams.In this episode, a16z partners Joe Schmidt and Marc Andrusko explore the evolution of sales tools and strategies, sharing their insights on what’s driving this shift.Is this the “Death of a Salesforce”? Perhaps that’s an overstatement. But one thing is clear: the future belongs to those who leverage data and AI to drive decisions—not just activities. Resources:Find Marc Andrusko on X: https://x.com/mandrusko1Find Joe Schmidt on X: https://x.com/joeschmidtivRead the original article: https://a16z.com/ai-transforms-sales/ Stay Updated: Let us know what you think: https://ratethispodcast.com/a16zFind a16z on Twitter: https://twitter.com/a16zFind a16z on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/a16zSubscribe on your favorite podcast app: https://a16z.simplecast.com/Follow our host: https://twitter.com/stephsmithioPlease note that the content here is for informational purposes only; should NOT be taken as legal, business, tax, or investment advice or be used to evaluate any investment or security; and is not directed at any investors or potential investors in any a16z fund. a16z and its affiliates may maintain investments in the companies discussed. For more details please see a16z.com/disclosures.

25 Nov 202416min

What if the biggest challenge of our time isn’t living longer, but living better? In this episode, we’re tackling one of humanity’s greatest accomplishments—and perhaps its most overlooked challenge: longevity. As more people live past 100, our systems—healthcare, finance, career planning, and even our cultural perceptions of aging—need a fundamental overhaul. We’re joined by Dr. Andrew Scott, author of The Longevity Imperative, and Vijay Pande a16z’s Bio & Health general partner, to explore how a shift from “sick care” to “health care” could transform our lives. Together, we discuss the implications of longer lifespans, from the individual choices that can improve our healthspans to the economic and societal shifts required to sustain a healthier, more productive aging society. Join us as we reimagine the future of aging, where living to 100 can be more than survival—it can be a life well-lived. Resources: Find Andrew on X: https://x.com/profandrewscott?lang=enFind Vijay on X: https://x.com/vijaypandeLearn more about The Longevity Imperative:https://profandrewjscott.com/the-longevity-imperative/ Stay Updated: Let us know what you think: https://ratethispodcast.com/a16zFind a16z on Twitter: https://twitter.com/a16zFind a16z on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/a16zSubscribe on your favorite podcast app: https://a16z.simplecast.com/Follow our host: https://twitter.com/stephsmithioPlease note that the content here is for informational purposes only; should NOT be taken as legal, business, tax, or investment advice or be used to evaluate any investment or security; and is not directed at any investors or potential investors in any a16z fund. a16z and its affiliates may maintain investments in the companies discussed. For more details please see a16z.com/disclosures.

18 Nov 202440min

America is a country of immense wealth, but our manufacturing infrastructure is struggling to keep pace.In this episode, we discuss the overlooked crisis of American manufacturing and what it means for our national resilience. a16z’s Oliver Hsu hosts a conversation with founders Jordan Black (Senra Systems), Chris Power (Hadrian), and Bryon Hargis (Castelion) on why we need to revive our industrial base — and fast.From outdated regulations to the adoption of automation, they break down the “death by a thousand paper cuts” that has left our production capabilities lagging behind. Yet, it’s not all grim: these founders share how their companies are taking bold, vertically integrated approaches to reinvent the sector and reclaim America's industrial edge. Resources:Find Chris on X: https://x.com/2112PowerFind Jordan on X: https://x.com/jordan__blackFind Bryon on X: https://x.com/hargsbFind Oliver on X: https://x.com/oyhsu Stay Updated: Let us know what you think: https://ratethispodcast.com/a16zFind a16z on Twitter: https://twitter.com/a16zFind a16z on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/a16zSubscribe on your favorite podcast app: https://a16z.simplecast.com/Follow our host: https://twitter.com/stephsmithioPlease note that the content here is for informational purposes only; should NOT be taken as legal, business, tax, or investment advice or be used to evaluate any investment or security; and is not directed at any investors or potential investors in any a16z fund. a16z and its affiliates may maintain investments in the companies discussed. For more details please see a16z.com/disclosures.

11 Nov 202432min

2024 has been a milestone year for autonomous tech. Waymo’s fully autonomous driver has surpassed 20 million miles, while FAA approvals now allow commercial drones to fly without visual observers, advancing air autonomy in unprecedented ways.In this special live recording from SF Tech Week, a16z partner Erin Price-Wright moderates a panel of experts from three key domains—air, land, and sea—to explore the latest real-world deployments of autonomous systems, the impact of new chips on cost and efficiency, building full-stack solutions, managing risk, and the evolving role of regulation in driving these technologies forward.Joining the conversation is Macario Namie, CMO of Skydio, discussing the transition from consumer drones to enterprise and government use; Vijay Patnaik, Head of Product at Applied Intuition, who shares insights on developer tools and software for autonomous vehicles; and Peter Bowman-Davis, engineering fellow at a16z, diving into maritime autonomy based on his work at Saronic. Resources: Find Macario on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/macario-namie-bb529/Find Vijay on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/vijaysaipatnaik/Find Peter on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/peter-bowman-davis/Find Erin on Twitter: https://x.com/espricewright Stay Updated: Let us know what you think: https://ratethispodcast.com/a16zFind a16z on Twitter: https://twitter.com/a16zFind a16z on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/a16zSubscribe on your favorite podcast app: https://a16z.simplecast.com/Follow our host: https://twitter.com/stephsmithioPlease note that the content here is for informational purposes only; should NOT be taken as legal, business, tax, or investment advice or be used to evaluate any investment or security; and is not directed at any investors or potential investors in any a16z fund. a16z and its affiliates may maintain investments in the companies discussed. For more details please see a16z.com/disclosures.

4 Nov 202448min

We take you behind the scenes of our newly released, annual State of Crypto Report — a16z crypto's analysis of the latest data and trends that have defined the industry in 2024. This year's report features some brand new insights, from estimating the number of real crypto users globally, to understanding how much interest in crypto swing states may have ahead of the U.S. election. We also dig into infrastructure improvements to blockchains and key applications — including stablecoins, AI, and so-called DePIN. Be sure to visit a16zcrypto.com for all this and more including a new “Builder Energy” dashboard, which we’ll discuss on the show.Joining me to talk about the findings are lead data scientist and report author Daren Matsuoka and CTO Eddy Lazzarin. The first voice you'll hear after mine is Daren's, then Eddy's. a16z crypto resources:-State of Crypto Report 2024-Builder Energy dashboard-Estimating the number of real crypto users by Daren Matsuoka and Eddy Lazzarin Stay Updated: Let us know what you think: https://ratethispodcast.com/a16zFind a16z on Twitter: https://twitter.com/a16zFind a16z on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/a16zSubscribe on your favorite podcast app: https://a16z.simplecast.com/Follow our host: https://twitter.com/stephsmithioPlease note that the content here is for informational purposes only; should NOT be taken as legal, business, tax, or investment advice or be used to evaluate any investment or security; and is not directed at any investors or potential investors in any a16z fund. a16z and its affiliates may maintain investments in the companies discussed. For more details please see a16z.com/disclosures.

29 Okt 202454min

What does Rich Sutton’s "Bitter Lesson" reveal about the decisions Tesla is making in its pursuit of autonomy?In this episode, we dive into Tesla’s recent "We, Robot" event, where they unveiled bold plans for the unsupervised full-self-driving Cybercab, Robovan, and Optimus—their humanoid robot, which Elon Musk predicts could become “the biggest product ever.”Joined by a16z partners Anjney Midha and Erin Price-Wright, we explore how these announcements reflect the evolving intersection of hardware and software. We’ll unpack the layers of the autonomy stack, the sources of data powering it, and the challenges involved in making these technologies a reality.Anjney, with his experience in computer vision and multiplayer tech at Ubiquity6, and Erin, an AI expert focused on the physical world, share their unique perspectives on how these advancements could extend far beyond the consumer market.For more insights, check out Erin’s articles linked below.  Resources: Find Anj on Twitter: https://x.com/anjneymidhaFind Erin on Twitter: https://x.com/espricewrightRead Erin’s article ‘A Software-Driven Autonomy Stack Is Taking Shape’: https://a16z.com/a-software-driven-autonomy-stack-is-taking-shape/AI for the Physical World: https://a16z.com/ai-for-the-physical-world/ Stay Updated: Let us know what you think: https://ratethispodcast.com/a16zFind a16z on Twitter: https://twitter.com/a16zFind a16z on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/a16zSubscribe on your favorite podcast app: https://a16z.simplecast.com/Follow our host: https://twitter.com/stephsmithioPlease note that the content here is for informational purposes only; should NOT be taken as legal, business, tax, or investment advice or be used to evaluate any investment or security; and is not directed at any investors or potential investors in any a16z fund. a16z and its affiliates may maintain investments in the companies discussed. For more details please see a16z.com/disclosures.

24 Okt 202436min

In 2024, marking 10 years since its launch, Apple Pay now boasts hundreds of millions of consumers in 78 markets, at checkout on millions of websites and apps, in tens of millions of stores worldwide, and is supported by more than 11,000 bank and network partners.In this episode, a16z General Partner Alex Rampell sits down with Jennifer Bailey, VP of Apple Pay and Apple Wallet, to explore how Apple has transformed digital payments. Jennifer reveals how Apple Pay and Apple Wallet have grown beyond payments to include transit cards, car keys, and more. They also discuss the challenges of driving adoption, the future of digital wallets, and Jennifer’s insights for entrepreneurs. Resources: Find Jennifer on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jbaileyzFind Alex on X: https://x.com/arampell Stay Updated: Let us know what you think: https://ratethispodcast.com/a16zFind a16z on Twitter: https://twitter.com/a16zFind a16z on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/a16zSubscribe on your favorite podcast app: https://a16z.simplecast.com/Follow our host: https://twitter.com/stephsmithioPlease note that the content here is for informational purposes only; should NOT be taken as legal, business, tax, or investment advice or be used to evaluate any investment or security; and is not directed at any investors or potential investors in any a16z fund. a16z and its affiliates may maintain investments in the companies discussed. For more details please see a16z.com/disclosures.

22 Okt 202431min