Dwarkesh and Noah Smith on AGI and the Economy
In this episode, Erik Torenberg is joined in the studio by Dwarkesh Patel and Noah Smith to explore one of the biggest questions in tech: what exactly is artificial general intelligence (AGI), and how close are we to achieving it?They break down:Competing definitions of AGI — economic vs. cognitive vs. “godlike”Why reasoning alone isn’t enough — and what capabilities models still lackThe debate over substitution vs. complementarity between AI and human laborWhat an AI-saturated economy might look like — from growth projections to UBI, sovereign wealth funds, and galaxy-colonizing robotsHow AGI could reshape global power, geopolitics, and the future of workAlong the way, they tackle failed predictions, surprising AI limitations, and the philosophical and economic consequences of building machines that think, and perhaps one day, act, like us. Timecodes: 0:00 Intro0:33 Defining AGI and General Intelligence2:38 Human and AI Capabilities Compared7:00 AI Replacing Jobs and Shifting Employment15:00 Economic Growth Trajectories After AGI17:15 Consumer Demand in an AI-Driven Economy31:00 Redistribution, UBI, and the Future of Income31:58 Human Roles and the Evolving Meaning of Work41:21 Technology, Society, and the Human Future45:43 AGI Timelines and Forecasting Horizons54:04 The Challenge of Predicting AI's Path57:37 Nationalization, Geopolitics, and the Global AI Race1:07:10 Brand and Network Effects in AI Dominance1:09:31 Final Thoughts Resources: Find Dwarkesh on X: https://x.com/dwarkesh_spFind Dwarkesh on YT: https://www.youtube.com/c/DwarkeshPatelSubscribe to Dwarkesh’s Substack: https://www.dwarkesh.com/Find Noah on X: https://x.com/noahpinionSubscribe to Noah’s Substack: https://www.noahpinion.blog/ Stay Updated: Let us know what you think: https://ratethispodcast.com/a16zFind a16z on Twitter: https://twitter.com/a16zFind a16z on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/a16zSubscribe on your favorite podcast app: https://a16z.simplecast.com/Follow our host: https://x.com/eriktorenbergPlease note that the content here is for informational purposes only; should NOT be taken as legal, business, tax, or investment advice or be used to evaluate any investment or security; and is not directed at any investors or potential investors in any a16z fund. a16z and its affiliates may maintain investments in the companies discussed. For more details please see a16z.com/disclosures.
4 Aug 1h 1min
Balaji on How Tech Truly Wins Media
What really caused the breakdown between tech and media—and what comes next?Erik Torenberg sits down with Balaji Srinivasan (entrepreneur, investor, and author of The Network State) to explore the long-building conflict between Silicon Valley and legacy journalism. Balaji explains how the collapse of traditional media business models gave rise to political capture, clickbait, and adversarial coverage of the tech industry.They discuss why “going direct” is no longer optional, how tech became the villain in establishment narratives, and what it would take to build a new truth infrastructure - from decentralized content creation to cryptographic verification.This episode covers power, distribution, and the future of media, with a signature mix of historical insight, social analysis, and Balaji’s forward-looking frameworks.Timecodes: 0:00 Introduction 1:26 The Media vs. Tech Conflict2:11 The Collapse of Journalism Revenue2:39 Rise of Wokeness and Political Realignment6:50 State vs. Network: A New Framework9:00 The Power Structure of Media Institutions19:25 The Role of Distribution and the Internet29:20 The Social War: Red vs. Blue America30:05 X Day and the Shift in Social Media Power42:56 Strategies for Technologists: Go Direct48:36 The Importance of Individual Creators1:10:00 Decentralized Truth and the Ledger of Record1:36:00 The Future of Media, Democracy, and Equality1:37:08 Conclusion & Final ThoughtsResourcesFind Balaji on X: https://x.com/balajisStay Updated: Let us know what you think: https://ratethispodcast.com/a16zFind a16z on Twitter: https://twitter.com/a16zFind a16z on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/a16zSubscribe on your favorite podcast app: https://a16z.simplecast.com/Follow our host: https://x.com/eriktorenbergPlease note that the content here is for informational purposes only; should NOT be taken as legal, business, tax, or investment advice or be used to evaluate any investment or security; and is not directed at any investors or potential investors in any a16z fund. a16z and its affiliates may maintain investments in the companies discussed. For more details please see a16z.com/disclosures.
1 Aug 1h 37min
AI Content and the War for Your Attention
What happens when AI starts generating content for everyone—and no one wants to watch it?In this episode, MSNBC’s Chris Hayes and ad tech veteran Antonio García Martínez join a16z General Partner, Erik Torenberg to unpack the shifting economics of attention: from the rise of “AI slop” and spammy feeds to the difference between what we want to pay attention to and what platforms push on us.They explore:How AI changes what gets created and what gets seenWhy internet ads still mostly suckThe return of group chats—and the slow death of mass cultureBased on Chris’s new book The Sirens Call, this is a candid look at what AI might amplify or break in our online lives. Timecodes:0:00 Introduction 1:47 Meet the Guests: Chris Hayes & Antonio Garcia Martinez3:01 The Economics of Attention & AI Slop6:38 Acquisition vs. Retention: The Attention Challenge10:01 Fame, Identity, and Social Media Fragmentation13:21 The Group Chat Solution & Privacy16:01 Business Models, Community, and Technology19:01 Mass Culture, Fragmentation, and the Algorithm23:01 Ad Tech, Personalization, and Advertising Effectiveness29:01 The Future: AI, Growth, and Abundance Resources: Find Chris on X: https://x.com/chrislhayesFind Antonio on X: https://x.com/antoniogmLearn more about Chris’ book ‘The Sirens' Call’: https://sirenscallbook.com/Learn more about Antonio’s book ‘Chaos Monkeys’: https://www.harpercollins.com/products/chaos-monkeys-antonio-garcia-martinez?variant=32207601532962 Stay Updated: Let us know what you think: https://ratethispodcast.com/a16zFind a16z on Twitter: https://twitter.com/a16zFind a16z on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/a16zSubscribe on your favorite podcast app: https://a16z.simplecast.com/Follow our host: https://x.com/eriktorenbergPlease note that the content here is for informational purposes only; should NOT be taken as legal, business, tax, or investment advice or be used to evaluate any investment or security; and is not directed at any investors or potential investors in any a16z fund. a16z and its affiliates may maintain investments in the companies discussed. For more details please see a16z.com/disclosures.
30 Juli 41min
Balaji Srinivasan: How AI Will Change Politics, War, and Money
a16z General Partners Erik Torenberg and Martin Casado sit down with technologist and investor Balaji Srinivasan to explore how the metaphors we use to describe AI—whether as god, swarm, tool, or oracle—reveal as much about us as they do about the technology itself.Balaji, best known for his work in crypto and network states, also brings a deep background in machine learning. Together, the trio unpacks the evolution of AI discourse, from monotheistic visions of a singular AGI to polytheistic interpretations shaped by culture and context. They debate the practical and philosophical: the current limits of AI, why prompts function like high-dimensional programs, and what it really takes to “close the loop” in AI reasoning.This is a systems-level conversation on belief, control, infrastructure, and the architectures that might govern future societies. Timecodes:0:00 Introduction: The Polytheistic AGI Framework1:46 Personal Journeys in AI and Crypto3:18 Monotheistic vs. Polytheistic AGI: Competing Paradigms8:20 The Limits of AI: Chaos, Turbulence, and Predictability9:29 Platonic Ideals and Real-World Systems14:10 Decentralized AI and the End of Fast Takeoff14:34 Surprises in AI Progress: Language, Locomotion, and Double Descent25:45 Prompting, Verification, and the Age of the Phrase29:44 AI, Crypto, and the Grounding Problem34:26 Visual vs. Verbal: Where AI Excels and Struggles37:19 The Challenge of Markets, Politics, and Adversarial Systems40:11 Amplified Intelligence: AI as a Force Multiplier43:37 The Polytheistic Counterargument: Convergence and Specialization48:17 AI’s Impact on Jobs: Specialists, Generalists, and the Future of Work57:36 Security, Drones, and Digital Borders1:03:41 AI, Power, and the Balance of Control1:06:33 The Coming Anti-AI Backlash1:09:10 Global Implications: Labor, Politics, and the Future Resources:Find Balaji on X: https://x.com/balajisFind Martin on X: https://x.com/martin_casado Stay Updated: Let us know what you think: https://ratethispodcast.com/a16zFind a16z on Twitter: https://twitter.com/a16zFind a16z on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/a16zSubscribe on your favorite podcast app: https://a16z.simplecast.com/Follow our host: https://x.com/eriktorenbergPlease note that the content here is for informational purposes only; should NOT be taken as legal, business, tax, or investment advice or be used to evaluate any investment or security; and is not directed at any investors or potential investors in any a16z fund. a16z and its affiliates may maintain investments in the companies discussed. For more details please see a16z.com/disclosures.
28 Juli 1h 5min
Ben and Marc on New Media: Podcasts, Politics & the Collapse of Trust
On this episode of The Ben & Marc Show, a16z co-founders Marc Andreessen and Ben Horowitz sit down with Erik Torenberg— General Partner at a16z and founder of the media company Turpentine—to unpack how the internet shattered the old media order and reshaped the way power works in America.What begins as a look at the evolution of media quickly becomes something bigger: a conversation about truth, trust, and the collapse of institutional authority. They explore how social media became both an x-ray and an engine, why authenticity now beats polish, and how the rules of politics, and journalism, have permanently changed.Together, they break down:-Why 2017 marked a structural break between tech and the press-Trump’s real training ground-The tension between objectivity, activism, and “speaking truth to power”-Why podcasters. not pundits, are setting the agenda- How the barbell strategy is reshaping media: short-form virality meets long-form depthWith stops at Watergate, the rise of Rogan, the fall of legacy gatekeepers, and the media playbooks behind Obama, Trump, and the Kardashians—this episode explores how we got here, what’s next, and what it means for founders, voters, and anyone trying to build (or tell) a story. Timecodes: 0:00 Introduction0:55 The Evolution of Media: From Centralization to Fragmentation2:34 The Internet’s Impact on Traditional Media4:06 Unionization and Technological Change in Media6:39 Oversupply and Competition in News Organizations8:44 The Changing Role and Ideology of Journalism11:46 Speak Truth to Power: Conflicts in Journalism13:39 The 2016 Election and the Collapse of Media Trust23:20 Martin Gurri and the Crisis of Authority31:34 Decentralization: From the 1970s to Social Media48:06 Trump, Reality TV, and the New Media Playbook59:10 Drama, Authenticity, and the Barbell Effect in Media1:16:40 Podcasts, Direct Communication, and the Future of Authority1:34:48 Advice for Founders and the Importance of Personal Branding1:37:35 Conclusion & Final Thoughts Stay Updated: Let us know what you think: https://ratethispodcast.com/a16zFind a16z on Twitter: https://twitter.com/a16zFind a16z on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/a16zSubscribe on your favorite podcast app: https://a16z.simplecast.com/Follow our host: https://x.com/eriktorenbergPlease note that the content here is for informational purposes only; should NOT be taken as legal, business, tax, or investment advice or be used to evaluate any investment or security; and is not directed at any investors or potential investors in any a16z fund. a16z and its affiliates may maintain investments in the companies discussed. For more details please see a16z.com/disclosures.
25 Juli 1h 37min
Critical Minerals: Mining for the Industrial Future
It can take more than 15 years to permit and build a new mine in the United States - yet nearly every modern technology we rely on, from smartphones to fighter jets to AI data centers, depends on a steady supply of critical minerals.In this episode, Erik Torenberg is joined in the studio by Turner Caldwell, founder of Mariana Minerals, along with American Dynamism general partner Erin Price-Wright and partner Ryan McEntush.Turner spent nearly a decade at Tesla, working his way upstream from factory design to battery materials and mining. Now, he’s building a new kind of mining and refining company - vertically integrated and software-first- designed to meet the demands of our industrial future.We get into why the industry is so broken, what it actually takes to turn rocks into usable materials, and how the U.S. can rebuild its capacity to mine, refine, and manufacture the things that matter most. Timecodes: 00:00 Introduction to Critical Minerals00:45 The Importance of Mining in Modern Technology00:58 Meet Turner Caldwell and Marianna Minerals03:02 The Mining and Refining Process05:10 Challenges in the Mining Industry07:11 Turner's Journey from Tesla to Marianna15:31 The Role of AI and ML in Mining22:00 Geopolitical and Talent Pool Dynamics23:46 Challenges in Junior Mining Exploration25:30 Mariana's Product and Approach25:47 Leveraging Technology in Mining and Construction28:29 Optimizing Refining Processes with AI37:31 The Importance of Critical Minerals41:18 Permitting and Regulatory Challenges46:08 Future Strategies and International Expansion46:53 Conclusion and Future Outlook Resources: Find Turner on X :https://x.com/tbc415Find Erin on X: https://x.com/espricewrightFind Ryan on X: https://x.com/rmcentush Stay Updated: Let us know what you think: https://ratethispodcast.com/a16zFind a16z on Twitter: https://twitter.com/a16zFind a16z on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/a16zSubscribe on your favorite podcast app: https://a16z.simplecast.com/Follow our host: https://x.com/eriktorenbergPlease note that the content here is for informational purposes only; should NOT be taken as legal, business, tax, or investment advice or be used to evaluate any investment or security; and is not directed at any investors or potential investors in any a16z fund. a16z and its affiliates may maintain investments in the companies discussed. For more details please see a16z.com/disclosures.
23 Juli 48min
The Future of Software Development - Vibe Coding, Prompt Engineering & AI Assistants
Is AI the Fourth Pillar of Infrastructure?Infrastructure doesn’t go away — it layers. And today, AI is emerging as a new foundational layer alongside compute, storage, and networking.Erik Torenberg interviews a16z’s Martin Casado, Jennifer Li, and Matt Bornstein breaking down how infrastructure is evolving in the age of AI — from models and agents to developer tools and shifting user behavior.We dive into what infra actually means today, how it differs from enterprise, and why software itself is being disrupted. Plus, we explore the rise of technical users as buyers, what makes infra companies defensible, and how past waves — from the cloud to COVID to AI — are reshaping how we build and invest. Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:49) Defining Infrastructure in the AI Era(03:15) The Fourth Pillar: AI's Role in Infrastructure(06:01) Historical Context and Evolution of Infrastructure(08:20) The Impact of AI on Software Development(10:18) Investment Strategies and Market Dynamics(17:02) Developer Tools and AI Integration(20:57) Defensibility in the AI Landscape(22:16) Founders' Intuition and Industry Progress(22:26) Defensibility in AI Infrastructure(24:00) Expansion and Contraction Phases in the Industry(24:35) The Role of Layers in Market Consolidation(27:43) The Future of AI Models and Specialization(29:27) The Decade of AI Agents(29:54) Context Engineering and New Infrastructure(34:23) The Evolution of Software Development(42:13) Horizontal vs. Vertical Integration in AI(43:54) Conclusion and Final Thoughts Resources: Find Martin on X: https://x.com/martin_casadoFind Jennifer on X: https://x.com/JenniferHliFind Matt on X: https://x.com/BornsteinMatt Stay Updated: Let us know what you think: https://ratethispodcast.com/a16zFind a16z on Twitter: https://twitter.com/a16zFind a16z on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/a16zSubscribe on your favorite podcast app: https://a16z.simplecast.com/Follow our host: https://x.com/eriktorenbergPlease note that the content here is for informational purposes only; should NOT be taken as legal, business, tax, or investment advice or be used to evaluate any investment or security; and is not directed at any investors or potential investors in any a16z fund. a16z and its affiliates may maintain investments in the companies discussed. For more details please see a16z.com/disclosures.
21 Juli 44min
Marc Andreessen and Joe Lonsdale on Tariffs and Trade
Today we’re sharing an episode from American Optimist featuring Marc Andreessen in conversation with Joe Lonsdale, recorded live at the inaugural Ronald Reagan Economic Forum.They explore one of the most urgent and complex questions of our time: Can AI and robotics catalyze a new era of American industrial strength—and how do we ensure the entire country, including rural communities, shares in the upside?Marc walks through the history of U.S. industrialization, the lessons of tariffs and trade from leaders like McKinley, and how America’s shift to a services-based economy helped fuel our current urban-rural divide. The conversation spans immigration policy, housing, education, energy, and the path to a true AI-powered manufacturing revival—touching on what needs to change and how.This episode is a must-listen for anyone thinking about the future of American productivity, growth, and leadership in the age of AI. Resources: Find Marc on X: https://x.com/pmarcaFollow Joe on X: https://x.com/jtlonsdaleYou can find his writings here: https://blog.joelonsdale.com/ Stay Updated: Let us know what you think: https://ratethispodcast.com/a16zFind a16z on Twitter: https://twitter.com/a16zFind a16z on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/a16zSubscribe on your favorite podcast app: https://a16z.simplecast.com/Follow our host: https://twitter.com/stephsmithioPlease note that the content here is for informational purposes only; should NOT be taken as legal, business, tax, or investment advice or be used to evaluate any investment or security; and is not directed at any investors or potential investors in any a16z fund. a16z and its affiliates may maintain investments in the companies discussed. For more details please see a16z.com/disclosures.
18 Juli 30min
