Europe's Fate, Ukraine & Russia, and the Post-American Era

In today's episode, Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg tackle pressing listener questions focused on the economic impact of AI, software, immigration, and more. They also cover the potential for economic development in poor countries and the evolving nature of industrial policy in the US and China. 🔥 Apply to join over 400 Founders and Execs in the Turpentine Network: https://hmplogxqz0y.typeform.com/to/JCkphVqj - RECOMMENDED PODCASTS: 🎙️1 to 100 | Hypergrowth Companies Worth Joining Every week we sit down with the founder of a hyper-growth company you should consider joining. Our goal is to give you the inside story behind breakout, early stage companies potentially worth betting your career on. This season, discover how the founders of Modal Labs, Clay, Mercor, and more built their products, cultures, and companies. Spotify:https://open.spotify.com/show/70NOWtWDY995C8qDqojxGw Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/podcast/id1762756034 - 🎙️ History 102 with WhatifAltHist Every week, creator of WhatifAltHist Rudyard Lynch and Erik Torenberg cover a major topic in history in depth -- in under an hour. This season will cover classical Greece, early America, the Vikings, medieval Islam, ancient China, the fall of the Roman Empire, and more. Subscribe on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/36Kqo3BMMUBGTDo1IEYihm Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/history-102-with-whatifalthists-rudyard-lynch-and/id1730633913 YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@History102-qg5oj -- SPONSORS: BABBEL | WORKOS 🌐 Ready to achieve your 2024 goals? Start learning a new language with Babbel in just three weeks. Enjoy app lessons, live classes, and podcasts designed for real-world conversations. Get up to 60% off at https://get.babbel.com/econ102 🛠️ Building an enterprise-ready SaaS app? WorkOS has got you covered with easy-to-integrate APIs for SAML, SCIM, and more. Join top startups like Vercel, Perplexity, Jasper & Webflow in powering your app with WorkOS. Enjoy a free tier for up to 1M users! Start now at https://bit.ly/WorkOS-Turpentine -- SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: Econ102@Turpentine.co -- LINKS: Noahpinion: https://www.noahpinion.blog/ _ TIMESTAMPS: (00:00) Intro (00:32) Economic development in poor countries (05:31) Role of Foreign Aid (08:03) Universal Basic Income and parenting (11:47) Software and inequality (21:50) Impact of AI on employment (25:55) Sponsors: Babbel | WorkOS (28:22) Existing AI capabilities (36:06) Immigration impacts (44:35) Shifting progressive economic policies (54:12) China's industrial policy vs. US (01:00:59) Wrap

31 Juli 20241h 1min

In today’s episode, Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg discuss the potential of Kamala Harris as a presidential nominee, President Biden’s legacy, impact of COVID-19 on the economy and inflation, and the recent shifts in U.S. foreign relations and immigration policies. 🔥 Apply to join over 400 Founders and Execs in the Turpentine Network: https://hmplogxqz0y.typeform.com/to/JCkphVqj -- RECOMMENDED PODCASTS: 🎙️1 to 100 | Hypergrowth Companies Worth Joining Every week we sit down with the founder of a hyper-growth company you should consider joining. Our goal is to give you the inside story behind breakout, early stage companies potentially worth betting your career on. This season, discover how the founders of Modal Labs, Clay, Mercor, and more built their products, cultures, and companies. Spotify:https://open.spotify.com/show/70NOWtWDY995C8qDqojxGw Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/podcast/id1762756034 - 🎙️ History 102 with WhatifAltHist Every week, creator of WhatifAltHist Rudyard Lynch and Erik Torenberg cover a major topic in history in depth -- in under an hour. This season will cover classical Greece, early America, the Vikings, medieval Islam, ancient China, the fall of the Roman Empire, and more. Subscribe on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/36Kqo3BMMUBGTDo1IEYihm Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/history-102-with-whatifalthists-rudyard-lynch-and/id1730633913 YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@History102-qg5oj -- SPONSORS: BEEHIIV | BABBEL | WORKOS 🌐 Ready to achieve your 2024 goals? Start learning a new language with Babbel in just three weeks. Enjoy app lessons, live classes, and podcasts designed for real-world conversations. Get up to 60% off at https://get.babbel.com/econ102 🐝 Head to Beehiiv, the newsletter platform built for growth, to power your own. Connect with premium brands, scale your audience, and deliver a beautiful UX that stands out in an inbox. Go to https://beehiiv.com and use code "MOZ" for 20% off your first three months 🛠️ Building an enterprise-ready SaaS app? WorkOS has got you covered with easy-to-integrate APIs for SAML, SCIM, and more. Join top startups like Vercel, Perplexity, Jasper & Webflow in powering your app with WorkOS. Enjoy a free tier for up to 1M users! Start now at https://bit.ly/WorkOS-Turpentine -- SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: Econ102@Turpentine.co -- LINKS: Noahpinion: https://www.noahpinion.blog/ _ TIMESTAMPS: (00:00) Intro (00:17) Kamala Harris's political prospects (05:04) Biden's legacy and presidential impact (11:07) Sponsors: Babbel | Beehiiv (13:42) COVID-19 vaccine release (16:03) Inflation and economic policies (22:53) Industrial policy and trade (28:48) Sponsor: WorkOs (29:49) Impact of Trump’s presidency (33:54) Trump vs. Biden (38:37) Afghanistan withdrawal and the role of Trump and Biden (46:24) Ukraine: Biden administration's response (54:32) Biden's big challenge on immigration (58:00) Wrap

26 Juli 20241h 1min

In today’s episode, Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg discuss the nomination of JD Vance as Vice President, Trump's political strategies, and the potential geopolitical shifts with a focus on China. The conversation also covers Biden's policy continuity and the role of tech leaders in shaping political directions.  🔥 Apply to join over 400 Founders and Execs in the Turpentine Network: https://hmplogxqz0y.typeform.com/to/JCkphVqj -- RECOMMENDED PODCASTS: 🎙️1 to 100 | Hypergrowth Companies Worth Joining Every week we sit down with the founder of a hyper-growth company you should consider joining. Our goal is to give you the inside story behind breakout, early stage companies potentially worth betting your career on. This season, discover how the founders of Modal Labs, Clay, Mercor, and more built their products, cultures, and companies. Spotify:https://open.spotify.com/show/70NOWtWDY995C8qDqojxGw Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/podcast/id1762756034 - 🎙️ History 102 with WhatifAltHist Every week, creator of WhatifAltHist Rudyard Lynch and Erik Torenberg cover a major topic in history in depth -- in under an hour. This season will cover classical Greece, early America, the Vikings, medieval Islam, ancient China, the fall of the Roman Empire, and more. Subscribe on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/36Kqo3BMMUBGTDo1IEYihm Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/history-102-with-whatifalthists-rudyard-lynch-and/id1730633913 YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@History102-qg5oj -- SPONSORS: BEEHIIV | BABBEL | COMMANDBAR | WARP 🌐 Ready to achieve your 2024 goals? Start learning a new language with Babbel in just three weeks. Enjoy app lessons, live classes, and podcasts designed for real-world conversations. Get up to 60% off at https://get.babbel.com/econ102 🐝 Head to Beehiiv, the newsletter platform built for growth, to power your own. Connect with premium brands, scale your audience, and deliver a beautiful UX that stands out in an inbox. Go to https://beehiiv.com and use code "MOZ" for 20% off your first three months 🦾 Level up your ineffective website chatbot with CommandBar. CommandBar builds a new type of web assistant which delivers highly personalized responses, real time co-browsing, and can perform actions on behalf of the users. Learn how Hashicorp, Gusto, Freshworks and more use CommandBar at https://commandbar.com/moz This episode is brought to you by Warp. Don’t let payroll and compliance hold your startup back: visit https://joinwarp.com/peel to get started and receive a $1000 gift card when your first run payroll. -- SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: Econ102@Turpentine.co -- LINKS: Noahpinion: https://www.noahpinion.blog/ _ TIMESTAMPS: (00:00) Intro (00:22) Analyzing J.D. Vance's VP Nomination (03:11) J.D. Vance's policy positions and influence (09:14) Trump's foreign policy and asia focus (14:07) Healthcare spending and political shifts (17:58) Biden's continuation of Trump policies (22:36) Sponsors: Beehiiv and Babbel (25:11) Potential changes if Trump gets re-elected (26:34) Silicon Valley's political shift (33:46) Democrats' relationship with technology (37:06) Elon Musk's political shift (46:40) Sponsors: CommandBar and Warp (48:51) Current state of stability in the US (55:49) Future of U.S.-China relations (59:22) Importance of patriotism in the 2030s (01:04:52) Role of tech leaders in influencing politics (01:05:12) Wrap

17 Juli 20241h 5min

This week on ECON 102, Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg discuss the Republican Party platform and its focus on economic issues. They also cover the influence of Trump-era policies, the evolving stance on immigration policies, cost reduction on education, housing and healthcare - and what Noah would do if he was the enlightened despot in charge of the US.  🔥 Apply to join over 400 Founders and Execs in the Turpentine Network: https://hmplogxqz0y.typeform.com/to/JCkphVqj -- RECOMMENDED PODCAST: 🎙️ Second Opinion - A new podcast for health-tech insiders from Christina Farr of the Second Opinion newsletter. Join Christina Farr, Luba Greenwood, and Ash Zenooz every week as they challenge industry experts with tough questions about the best bets in health-tech. Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/id1759267211 Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/0A8NwQE976s32zdBbZw6bv - 🎙️ History 102 with WhatifAltHist Every week, creator of WhatifAltHist Rudyard Lynch and Erik Torenberg cover a major topic in history in depth -- in under an hour. This season will cover classical Greece, early America, the Vikings, medieval Islam, ancient China, the fall of the Roman Empire, and more. Subscribe on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/36Kqo3BMMUBGTDo1IEYihm Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/history-102-with-whatifalthists-rudyard-lynch-and/id1730633913 YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@History102-qg5oj -- SPONSORS: BEEHIIV | BABBEL | COMMANDBAR | WARP 🌐 Ready to achieve your 2024 goals? Start learning a new language with Babbel in just three weeks. Enjoy app lessons, live classes, and podcasts designed for real-world conversations. Get up to 60% off at https://get.babbel.com/econ102 🐝 Head to Beehiiv, the newsletter platform built for growth, to power your own. Connect with premium brands, scale your audience, and deliver a beautiful UX that stands out in an inbox. Go to https://beehiiv.com and use code "MOZ" for 20% off your first three months 🦾 Level up your ineffective website chatbot with CommandBar. CommandBar builds a new type of web assistant which delivers highly personalized responses, real time co-browsing, and can perform actions on behalf of the users. Learn how Hashicorp, Gusto, Freshworks and more use CommandBar at https://commandbar.com/moz This episode is brought to you by Warp. Don’t let payroll and compliance hold your startup back: visit https://joinwarp.com/peel to get started and receive a $1000 gift card when your first run payroll. -- SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: Econ102@Turpentine.co -- LINKS: Let's evaluate the whole Republican party platform!: https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/lets-evaluate-the-whole-republican Noahpinion: https://www.noahpinion.blog/ _ TIMESTAMPS: (00:00) Intro (00:19) Analyzing the Republican Party Platform (01:53) Economic focus of the platform (02:25) Cultural shifts in the Republican Party (05:19) Comparing past and present platforms (09:10) Immigration policies and their impact (12:03) Sponsors: Beehiiv and Babbel (14:38) Inflation and economic strategies (20:15) Merit-based immigration and family reunification (24:48) Building the greatest economy in history (27:47) Sponsors: CommandBar and Warp (29:59) Role of government in elder care (33:42) Proposed solutions for California's budget (36:26) Reducing costs in education, housing, and healthcare (42:04) Boosting exports and trade policies (45:41) Manufacturing productivity and challenges (57:08) Trump's impact on Republican policies (01:00:36) Wrap

10 Juli 20241h 1min

This week on Econ 102, Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg celebrate America by discussing its future. They explore the 2024 presidential outlook, the Chevron ruling from the Supreme Court, and the polarization of the education system. Noah and Erik also discuss where wokeness goes from here, and the potential outcomes of integrating more conservatives into the civil service through initiatives like Project 2025.  🔥 Apply to join over 400 founders and Execs in the Turpentine Network: https://hmplogxqz0y.typeform.com/to/JCkphVqj -- RECOMMENDED PODCAST: 🎙️ Second Opinion - A new podcast for health-tech insiders from Christina Farr of the Second Opinion newsletter. Join Christina Farr, Luba Greenwood, and Ash Zenooz every week as they challenge industry experts with tough questions about the best bets in health-tech. Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/id1759267211 Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/0A8NwQE976s32zdBbZw6bv - 🎙️ History 102 with WhatifAltHist Every week, creator of WhatifAltHist Rudyard Lynch and Erik Torenberg cover a major topic in history in depth -- in under an hour. This season will cover classical Greece, early America, the Vikings, medieval Islam, ancient China, the fall of the Roman Empire, and more. Subscribe on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/36Kqo3BMMUBGTDo1IEYihm Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/history-102-with-whatifalthists-rudyard-lynch-and/id1730633913 YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@History102-qg5oj -- SPONSORS: BABBEL | BEEHIIV | WARP | METAVIEW 🌐 Ready to achieve your 2024 goals? Start learning a new language with Babbel in just three weeks. Enjoy app lessons, live classes, and podcasts designed for real-world conversations. Get up to 60% off at https://get.babbel.com/ 🐝 Head to Beehiiv, the newsletter platform built for growth, to power your own. Connect with premium brands, scale your audience, and deliver a beautiful UX that stands out in an inbox. Go to https://beehiiv.com and use code "MOZ" for 20% off your first three months This episode is brought to you by Warp. Don’t let payroll and compliance hold your startup back: visit https://joinwarp.com/peel to get started and receive a $1000 gift card when your first run payroll. Metaview is the AI assistant for interviewing. Metaview completely removes the need for recruiters and hiring managers to take notes during interviews—because their AI is designed to take world-class interview notes for you. Team builders at companies like Brex, Hellofresh, and Quora say Metaview has changed the game—see the magic for yourself: https://www.metaview.ai/heretics -- SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: Econ102@Turpentine.co -- LINKS: Noahpinion: https://www.noahpinion.blog/ _ TIMESTAMPS: (00:00) Intro (01:55) Debate on Biden and Trump's political future (03:13) Kamala Harris and democratic strategy (07:10) Deep state and government fiefdoms (11:34) Bernie Sanders and election interference (14:00) Chevron ruling and regulatory power (19:14) Sponsors: Beehiiv | Babbel (21:49) Project 2025 and civil service polarization (29:41) Floyd protests and anti-Trump sentiment (33:08) Palestine protests and political exhaustion (35:14) Sponsors: Warp | Metaview (37:15) Samo Bersia's administrative state proposal (39:06) Role and funding of the Department of Education (41:02) Teachers' unions and education reform (47:40) Class and identity in American society (54:17) Future of basic income and poverty reduction (58:32) Wrap

6 Juli 202459min

In today’s episode, Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg answer listener questions on intriguing topics from politics to personal relationships. They analyze Donald Trump, discuss Chomsky's influence on foreign policy, explore the economics of dating markets, and discuss Noah's theory 'why sex leads to love'. 🔥 Apply to join over 400 founders and Execs in the Turpentine Network: https://hmplogxqz0y.typeform.com/to/JCkphVqj -- RECOMMENDED PODCAST: 🎙️ Second Opinion - A new podcast for health-tech insiders from Christina Farr of the Second Opinion newsletter. Join Christina Farr, Luba Greenwood, and Ash Zenooz every week as they challenge industry experts with tough questions about the best bets in health-tech. Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/id1759267211 Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/0A8NwQE976s32zdBbZw6bv - 🎙️ History 102 with WhatifAltHist Every week, creator of WhatifAltHist Rudyard Lynch and Erik Torenberg cover a major topic in history in depth -- in under an hour. This season will cover classical Greece, early America, the Vikings, medieval Islam, ancient China, the fall of the Roman Empire, and more. Subscribe on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/36Kqo3BMMUBGTDo1IEYihm Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/history-102-with-whatifalthists-rudyard-lynch-and/id1730633913 YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@History102-qg5oj -- SPONSORS: BABBEL | BEEHIIV | WARP 🌐 Ready to achieve your 2024 goals? Start learning a new language with Babbel in just three weeks. Enjoy app lessons, live classes, and podcasts designed for real-world conversations. Get up to 60% off at babbel.com/econ102 🐝 Head to Beehiiv, the newsletter platform built for growth, to power your own. Connect with premium brands, scale your audience, and deliver a beautiful UX that stands out in an inbox. Go to https://beehiiv.com and use code "MOZ" for 20% off your first three months This episode is brought to you by Warp. Don’t let payroll and compliance hold your startup back: visit https://joinwarp.com/peel to get started and receive a $1000 gift card when your first run payroll. -- SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: Econ102@Turpentine.co -- LINKS: Noahpinion: https://www.noahpinion.blog/ -- TIMESTAMPS: (00:00) Intro (00:20) Assessing Trump's Presidency
(03:20) Trump's Presidency: The good and the bad (12:32) Biden vs. Trump: Second term predictions (16:18) Sponsor: Babbel and Beehiiv (18:53) Tech's shift towards Trump (25:20) Chomsky's influence on foreign policy (30:49) Sponsor: Warp (31:48) Anti-American sentiment: A global perspective (35:46) Economic schools of thought (37:08) Ranking federal reserve chairs (41:00) Paul Krugman's legacy (42:49) Economic models and dating markets (47:22) Role of sex in long-term relationships (53:56) Coolidge effect and human relationships (01:00:38) Genetics and long-term passion (01:03:23) Wrap

25 Juni 20241h 7min

In today’s episode, Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg dive into some listener questions on economics and macroeconomics issues. They discuss the Federal Reserve's strategy on interest rates, the complexities of macroeconomic prediction, the evolution of industrial policy, and pick the best economists of all time. 🔥 Apply to join over 400 founders and Execs in the Turpentine Network: https://hmplogxqz0y.typeform.com/to/JCkphVqj --  RECOMMENDED PODCAST: Patrick McKenzie (@patio11) talks to experts who understand the complicated but not unknowable systems we rely on. You might be surprised at how quickly Patrick and his guests can put you in the top 1% of understanding for stock trading, tech hiring, and more. Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/3Mos4VE3figVXleHDqfXOH Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/id1753399812https://podcasts.apple.com/id1753399812 - 🎙️ History 102 with WhatifAltHist Every week, creator of WhatifAltHist Rudyard Lynch and Erik Torenberg cover a major topic in history in depth -- in under an hour. This season will cover classical Greece, early America, the Vikings, medieval Islam, ancient China, the fall of the Roman Empire, and more. Subscribe on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/36Kqo3BMMUBGTDo1IEYihm Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/history-102-with-whatifalthists-rudyard-lynch-and/id1730633913 YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@History102-qg5oj -- SPONSORS: BABBEL | BEEHIIV 🌐 Ready to achieve your 2024 goals? Start learning a new language with Babbel in just three weeks. Enjoy app lessons, live classes, and podcasts designed for real-world conversations. Get up to 60% off at babbel.com/econ102 🐝 Head to Beehiiv, the newsletter platform built for growth, to power your own. Connect with premium brands, scale your audience, and deliver a beautiful UX that stands out in an inbox. Go to https://beehiiv.com and use code "MOZ" for 20% off your first three months -- SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: Econ102@Turpentine.co -- LINKS: Noahpinion: https://www.noahpinion.blog/ -- TIMESTAMPS: (00:00) Intro (00:35) Federal Reserve's approach to interest rates and inflation (02:48) Challenges in macroeconomic predictions (04:46) Microeconomic foundations of macroeconomics (07:53) Debating the greatest economists (10:19) University economics departments and their cultures (13:25) Great financial crisis: Causes and Misconceptions (18:50) Sponsor: Babbel and Beehiiv (21:25) Stabilizing Nominal Gross Domestic Product (NGDP) (25:50) Mechanisms of fiscal and monetary policy (29:42) Embracing industrial policy (37:13) Challenges in U.S. industrial policy (42:20) Threat of bioweapons and AI (49:21) Economic development with AI and automation (51:23) Economic impacts of high interest rates (53:44) Engaging with policymakers and future initiatives (55:09) Wrap

19 Juni 202456min

Today Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg answer more listener questions covering the surge of support for the hard right in European elections, the impact of immigration in Europe and the US, the future of Social Security, the stability of banks, and the best and worst taxes in the US. They also dive into the negative impact of China conquering Taiwan and why it is important to stand up against China's aggression.  🔥 Apply to join over 400 founders and Execs in the Turpentine Network: https://hmplogxqz0y.typeform.com/to/JCkphVqj -- RECOMMENDED PODCAST: Patrick McKenzie (@patio11) talks to experts who understand the complicated but not unknowable systems we rely on. You might be surprised at how quickly Patrick and his guests can put you in the top 1% of understanding for stock trading, tech hiring, and more. Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/3Mos4VE3figVXleHDqfXOH Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/id1753399812https://podcasts.apple.com/id1753399812 - 🎙️ History 102 with WhatifAltHist Every week, creator of WhatifAltHist Rudyard Lynch and Erik Torenberg cover a major topic in history in depth -- in under an hour. This season will cover classical Greece, early America, the Vikings, medieval Islam, ancient China, the fall of the Roman Empire, and more. Subscribe on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/36Kqo3BMMUBGTDo1IEYihm Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/history-102-with-whatifalthists-rudyard-lynch-and/id1730633913 YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@History102-qg5oj -- SPONSORS: BABBEL | BEEHIIV 🌐 Ready to achieve your 2024 goals? Start learning a new language with Babbel in just three weeks. Enjoy app lessons, live classes, and podcasts designed for real-world conversations. Get up to 60% off at babbel.com/econ102 🐝 Head to Beehiiv, the newsletter platform built for growth, to power your own. Connect with premium brands, scale your audience, and deliver a beautiful UX that stands out in an inbox. Go to https://beehiiv.com and use code "MOZ" for 20% off your first three months _ SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: Econ102@Turpentine.co _ LINKS: Noahpinion: https://www.noahpinion.blog/ -- TIMESTAMPS: (00:00) Intro (00:25) European elections and economic concerns (05:41) Comparing immigration in the US and Europe (12:01) Immigration in Japan and Vietnam (14:01) Brain drain in small countries and economic challenges (15:59) Sponsor: Babbel and Beehiiv (18:34) Social security and population growth (22:04) Banking crisis and regulations (26:56) Taxation: Best and worst practices (32:00) Government spending and infrastructure (37:16) Future of Intel and the chip industry (40:57) Manufacturing vs. Service-based development (49:54) Japan-Korea relations and generational change (56:49) Threat of China and global alliances (01:03:06) Wrap

13 Juni 20241h 4min