#215 – Tom Davidson on how AI-enabled coups could allow a tiny group to seize power

#215 – Tom Davidson on how AI-enabled coups could allow a tiny group to seize power

Throughout history, technological revolutions have fundamentally shifted the balance of power in society. The Industrial Revolution created conditions where democracies could flourish for the first time — as nations needed educated, informed, and empowered citizens to deploy advanced technologies and remain competitive.

Unfortunately there’s every reason to think artificial general intelligence (AGI) will reverse that trend.

Today’s guest — Tom Davidson of the Forethought Centre for AI Strategy — claims in a new paper published today that advanced AI enables power grabs by small groups, by removing the need for widespread human participation.

Links to learn more, video, highlights, and full transcript. https://80k.info/td

Also: come work with us on the 80,000 Hours podcast team! https://80k.info/work

There are a few routes by which small groups might seize power:

  • Military coups: Though rare in established democracies due to citizen/soldier resistance, future AI-controlled militaries may lack such constraints.
  • Self-built hard power: History suggests maybe only 10,000 obedient military drones could seize power.
  • Autocratisation: Leaders using millions of loyal AI workers, while denying others access, could remove democratic checks and balances.

Tom explains several reasons why AI systems might follow a tyrant’s orders:

  • They might be programmed to obey the top of the chain of command, with no checks on that power.
  • Systems could contain "secret loyalties" inserted during development.
  • Superior cyber capabilities could allow small groups to control AI-operated military infrastructure.

Host Rob Wiblin and Tom discuss all this plus potential countermeasures.

Chapters:

  • Cold open (00:00:00)
  • A major update on the show (00:00:55)
  • How AI enables tiny groups to seize power (00:06:24)
  • The 3 different threats (00:07:42)
  • Is this common sense or far-fetched? (00:08:51)
  • “No person rules alone.” Except now they might. (00:11:48)
  • Underpinning all 3 threats: Secret AI loyalties (00:17:46)
  • Key risk factors (00:25:38)
  • Preventing secret loyalties in a nutshell (00:27:12)
  • Are human power grabs more plausible than 'rogue AI'? (00:29:32)
  • If you took over the US, could you take over the whole world? (00:38:11)
  • Will this make it impossible to escape autocracy? (00:42:20)
  • Threat 1: AI-enabled military coups (00:46:19)
  • Will we sleepwalk into an AI military coup? (00:56:23)
  • Could AIs be more coup-resistant than humans? (01:02:28)
  • Threat 2: Autocratisation (01:05:22)
  • Will AGI be super-persuasive? (01:15:32)
  • Threat 3: Self-built hard power (01:17:56)
  • Can you stage a coup with 10,000 drones? (01:25:42)
  • That sounds a lot like sci-fi... is it credible? (01:27:49)
  • Will we foresee and prevent all this? (01:32:08)
  • Are people psychologically willing to do coups? (01:33:34)
  • Will a balance of power between AIs prevent this? (01:37:39)
  • Will whistleblowers or internal mistrust prevent coups? (01:39:55)
  • Would other countries step in? (01:46:03)
  • Will rogue AI preempt a human power grab? (01:48:30)
  • The best reasons not to worry (01:51:05)
  • How likely is this in the US? (01:53:23)
  • Is a small group seizing power really so bad? (02:00:47)
  • Countermeasure 1: Block internal misuse (02:04:19)
  • Countermeasure 2: Cybersecurity (02:14:02)
  • Countermeasure 3: Model spec transparency (02:16:11)
  • Countermeasure 4: Sharing AI access broadly (02:25:23)
  • Is it more dangerous to concentrate or share AGI? (02:30:13)
  • Is it important to have more than one powerful AI country? (02:32:56)
  • In defence of open sourcing AI models (02:35:59)
  • 2 ways to stop secret AI loyalties (02:43:34)
  • Preventing AI-enabled military coups in particular (02:56:20)
  • How listeners can help (03:01:59)
  • How to help if you work at an AI company (03:05:49)
  • The power ML researchers still have, for now (03:09:53)
  • How to help if you're an elected leader (03:13:14)
  • Rob’s outro (03:19:05)

This episode was originally recorded on January 20, 2025.

Video editing: Simon Monsour
Audio engineering: Ben Cordell, Milo McGuire, Simon Monsour, and Dominic Armstrong
Camera operator: Jeremy Chevillotte
Transcriptions and web: Katy Moore

Avsnitt(299)

#2 - David Spiegelhalter on risk, stats and improving understanding of science

#2 - David Spiegelhalter on risk, stats and improving understanding of science

Recorded in 2015 by Robert Wiblin with colleague Jess Whittlestone at the Centre for Effective Altruism, and recovered from the dusty 80,000 Hours archives. David Spiegelhalter is a statistician at the University of Cambridge and something of an academic celebrity in the UK. Part of his role is to improve the public understanding of risk - especially everyday risks we face like getting cancer or dying in a car crash. As a result he’s regularly in the media explaining numbers in the news, trying to assist both ordinary people and politicians focus on the important risks we face, and avoid being distracted by flashy risks that don’t actually have much impact. Summary, full transcript and extra links to learn more. To help make sense of the uncertainties we face in life he has had to invent concepts like the microlife, or a 30-minute change in life expectancy. (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Microlife) We wanted to learn whether he thought a lifetime of work communicating science had actually had much impact on the world, and what advice he might have for people planning their careers today.

21 Juni 201733min

#1 - Miles Brundage on the world's desperate need for AI strategists and policy experts

#1 - Miles Brundage on the world's desperate need for AI strategists and policy experts

Robert Wiblin, Director of Research at 80,000 Hours speaks with Miles Brundage, research fellow at the University of Oxford's Future of Humanity Institute. Miles studies the social implications surrounding the development of new technologies and has a particular interest in artificial general intelligence, that is, an AI system that could do most or all of the tasks humans could do. This interview complements our profile of the importance of positively shaping artificial intelligence and our guide to careers in AI policy and strategy Full transcript, apply for personalised coaching to work on AI strategy, see what questions are asked when, and read extra resources to learn more.

5 Juni 201755min

#0 – Introducing the 80,000 Hours Podcast

#0 – Introducing the 80,000 Hours Podcast

80,000 Hours is a non-profit that provides research and other support to help people switch into careers that effectively tackle the world's most pressing problems. This podcast is just one of many things we offer, the others of which you can find at 80000hours.org. Since 2017 this show has been putting out interviews about the world's most pressing problems and how to solve them — which some people enjoy because they love to learn about important things, and others are using to figure out what they want to do with their careers or with their charitable giving. If you haven't yet spent a lot of time with 80,000 Hours or our general style of thinking, called effective altruism, it's probably really helpful to first go through the episodes that set the scene, explain our overall perspective on things, and generally offer all the background information you need to get the most out of the episodes we're making now. That's why we've made a new feed with ten carefully selected episodes from the show's archives, called 'Effective Altruism: An Introduction'. You can find it by searching for 'Effective Altruism' in your podcasting app or at 80000hours.org/intro. Or, if you’d rather listen on this feed, here are the ten episodes we recommend you listen to first: • #21 – Holden Karnofsky on the world's most intellectual foundation and how philanthropy can have maximum impact by taking big risks • #6 – Toby Ord on why the long-term future of humanity matters more than anything else and what we should do about it • #17 – Will MacAskill on why our descendants might view us as moral monsters • #39 – Spencer Greenberg on the scientific approach to updating your beliefs when you get new evidence • #44 – Paul Christiano on developing real solutions to the 'AI alignment problem' • #60 – What Professor Tetlock learned from 40 years studying how to predict the future • #46 – Hilary Greaves on moral cluelessness, population ethics and tackling global issues in academia • #71 – Benjamin Todd on the key ideas of 80,000 Hours • #50 – Dave Denkenberger on how we might feed all 8 billion people through a nuclear winter • 80,000 Hours Team chat #3 – Koehler and Todd on the core idea of effective altruism and how to argue for it

1 Maj 20173min

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