Sam D'Amico and Noah Smith on How China Masters Manufacturing (And How America Can Catch Up)

Sam D'Amico and Noah Smith on How China Masters Manufacturing (And How America Can Catch Up)

This week, we’re airing a live conversation between Noah Smith and Sam D’Amico, founder and CEO of Impulse Labs, about how China’s Electric Tech Stack and tightly integrated supply chains are fueling its lead in industries from EVs to robotics, while exploring solutions for revitalizing U.S. manufacturing. The conversation also covers regulatory challenges, the value of co-locating engineers and factories, and the role of advanced technologies in shaping global production. – SPONSORS: Carta Carta is offering up to 40% off a new Carta plan, including cap table management, QSBS Attestation, and Carta Total Compensation. This limited-time offer runs through the end of July at z.carta.com/econ102. NetSuite More than 42,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. Download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine learning: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://netsuite.com/102⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Shopify Shopify is the world's leading e-commerce platform, offering a market-leading checkout system Shoppay and exclusive AI apps. Nobody does selling better than Shopify. Get a $1 per month trial at ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://shopify.com/momentofzen⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. AdQuick The easiest way to book out-of-home ads (like billboards, vehicle wraps, and airport displays) the same way you would order an Uber. Ready to get your brand the attention it deserves? Visit ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://adquick.com/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ today to start reaching your customers in the real world. – SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: Econ102@Turpentine.co – FOLLOW ON X: @sdamico @noahpinion @eriktorenberg @turpentinemedia – RECOMMENDED IN THIS EPISODE: Noahpinion: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.noahpinion.blog/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠ https://www.impulselabs.com/ – TAKEAWAYS: The "Electric Tech Stack" Revolution: Electric Tech Stack" - batteries, motors, power electronics, and chips. This stack is replacing traditional manufacturing across industries, turning everything from cars to military equipment into "fancy drones. Why America Struggles with Manufacturing: Engineers live in expensive NIMBY cities while factory workers live elsewhere, breaking the crucial feedback loop needed for hardware iteration. China's Advantages: Chinese companies expect to build 200-300 prototype units before shipping, with engineers working directly with factory workers. Policy Solutions: Every major US city needs its own "Shenzhen" - a nearby manufacturing hub where engineers can drive to factories in 2 hours. The Appliance Strategy: Sam's company Impulse is using battery-powered stoves as a trojan horse to rebuild America's electric tech stack manufacturing base. By creating domestic demand for these technologies outside EVs, they're building the supply chain that other companies can leverage. The Stakes: The conversation emphasizes that this isn't just about economics - it's about national security. When Ukraine's toy drones can destroy Russian bombers 4,000 kilometers away, mastering the electric tech stack becomes a matter of military survival.

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The Truth About Inflation

The Truth About Inflation

Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg explore the factors contributing to rising grocery prices and the impact of inflation on consumer sentiment, as well as debunking misconceptions about inflation. Match a donation up to $100 for your favorite charity with GiveWell by going to https://givewell.org and pick “Podcast” and enter Econ 102 at checkout. - RECOMMENDED PODCAST: History 102 with WhatifAltHist Every week, creator of WhatifAltHist Rudyard Lynch and Erik Torenberg cover a major topic in history in depth -- in under an hour. This season will cover classical Greece, early America, the Vikings, medieval Islam, ancient China, the fall of the Roman Empire, and more. Subscribe on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/36Kqo3BMMUBGTDo1IEYihm Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/history-102-with-whatifalthists-rudyard-lynch-and/id1730633913 YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@History102-qg5oj - Check out Erik's new show Request for Startups featuring a rotating cast of founders and investors (including Dan) sharing their requests for startups they want to exist in the world, and also their stories of navigating the idea maze in different sectors so founders don’t have to reinvent the wheel anymore. The first episode is out now - we over better dating apps, references as a service, and WeWork for productivity Watch and Subscribe on Substack: https://requestforstartups.substack.com/p/receipt-based-dating-reference-checks Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/request-for-startups-with-erik-torenberg/id1728659822 Spotify:https://open.spotify.com/show/739L1LR32QI2XyoZlRh5nv _ We're hiring across the board at Turpentine and for Erik's personal team on other projects he's incubating. He's hiring a Chief of Staff, EA, Head of Special Projects, Investment Associate, and more. For a list of JDs, check out: eriktorenberg.com. -- Sponsors: GIVEWELL | NETSUITE Have you ever wondered where your donation could have the most impact? GiveWell has now spent over 15 years researching charitable organizations and only directs funding to the highest impact opportunities they’ve found in global health and poverty alleviation. Make informed decisions about high-impact giving. If you’ve never donated through GiveWell before, you can have your donation matched up to $100 before the end of the year, or as long as matching funds last. To claim your match, go to https://givewell.org and pick “Podcast” and enter Econ 102 at checkout. NetSuite has 25 years of providing financial software for all your business needs. More than 36,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, gaining visibility and control over their financials, inventory, HR, eCommerce, and more. If you’re looking for an ERP platform head to NetSuite http://netsuite.com/102 and download your own customized KPI checklist. -- Econ 102 is a part of the Turpentine podcast network. To learn more: www.turpentine.co – LINKS: - Noahpinion on Substack: https://www.noahpinion.blog/ - Noah Smith, "Why are your groceries still so expensive?" on Substack: https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/why-are-your-groceries-still-so-expensive – X / TWITTER: @noahpinion (Noah) @eriktorenberg (Erik) – TIMESTAMPS: (00:58) Episode preview (03:00) The impact of inflation on consumer sentiment (07:08) Factors of inflation (13:52) The role of rent and monopoly power (15:26) SPONSOR: GIVEWELL (20:33) Wages and immigration impacting grocery prices (24:47) Grocery prices and supply chain snarls (25:52) SPONSOR: NETSUITE (27:15) Causes of inflation and deflation (31:04) Impact of aggregate supply and demand on inflation (34:25) Low & stable inflation (37:14) Erasing debt (42:17) How innovation affects inflation (51:09) Tech and real incomes (52:36) Inflation in the 80s and 90s (53:34) Expectation anchoring & inflation control (59:20) COVID and inflation expectations (01:04:37) Costless disinflation & manipulating expectations

20 Dec 20231h 4min

America's View on Immigration

America's View on Immigration

Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg explore the debate on immigration, including open borders vs border enforcement, the ideal composition of immigrants, the housing crisis, & the mixed views Americans have on the subject. Match a donation up to $100 for your favorite charity with GiveWell by going to https://givewell.org and pick “Podcast” and enter Econ 102 at checkout. Check out Erik's new show Request for Startups featuring a rotating cast of founders and investors (including Dan) sharing their requests for startups they want to exist in the world, and also their stories of navigating the idea maze in different sectors so founders don’t have to reinvent the wheel anymore. The first episode is out now - we over better dating apps, references as a service, and WeWork for productivity Watch and Subscribe on Substack: https://requestforstartups.substack.com/p/receipt-based-dating-reference-checks Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/request-for-startups-with-erik-torenberg/id1728659822 Spotify:https://open.spotify.com/show/739L1LR32QI2XyoZlRh5nv _ We're hiring across the board at Turpentine and for Erik's personal team on other projects he's incubating. He's hiring a Chief of Staff, EA, Head of Special Projects, Investment Associate, and more. For a list of JDs, check out: eriktorenberg.com. -- Sponsors: GIVEWELL | NETSUITE Have you ever wondered where your donation could have the most impact? GiveWell has now spent over 15 years researching charitable organizations and only directs funding to the highest impact opportunities they’ve found in global health and poverty alleviation. Make informed decisions about high-impact giving. If you’ve never donated through GiveWell before, you can have your donation matched up to $100 before the end of the year, or as long as matching funds last. To claim your match, go to https://givewell.org and pick “Podcast” and enter Econ 102 at checkout. NetSuite has 25 years of providing financial software for all your business needs. More than 36,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, gaining visibility and control over their financials, inventory, HR, eCommerce, and more. If you’re looking for an ERP platform head to NetSuite http://netsuite.com/102 and download your own customized KPI checklist. -- Econ 102 is a part of the Turpentine podcast network. To learn more: www.turpentine.co – LINKS: - Noahpinion on Substack: https://www.noahpinion.blog/ - Noah Smith, "Americans are Angry About Immigration": https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/americans-are-angry-about-immigration – X / TWITTER: @noahpinion (Noah) @eriktorenberg (Erik) – TIMESTAMPS: (00:40) Episode Preview (02:12) Americans' mixed views on immigration (04:07) The Great Replacement Theory and Political Replacement Theory (06:01) Open borders vs. border enforcement Mechanisms (09:18) Economic effects of immigration (14:23) NIMBYism & the strain on local government finances (14:46) SPONSORS: GIVEWELL (16:12) Labor competition (20:27) Historical Labor Protectionism (25:13) SPONSORS: NETSUITE (28:27) Impacts of NIMBYism (31:45) Costs of Immigration (35:02) Housing & Fiscal Competition (47:46) The Debate on Immigration and Open Borders (49:12) Ideal Amount of Immigration and Sustainable Levels (50:06) High-Skilled vs Low-Skilled Immigration (54:49) Ideal Composition of Immigrants (59:13) Competing with China & the Need for High-Skilled Immigration (01:00:42) Republican Critiques: Political, Cultural, & Racial Replacement (01:08:45) American cultural diversity (01:13:16) Debunking the Fear of Racial Replacement (01:16:22) The Nuanced Picture of Immigration Music License: ZHRPBK5SO667TNVT

13 Dec 20231h 18min

Which energy source is best w/ Age of Miracles

Which energy source is best w/ Age of Miracles

Noah Smith joins Age of Miracles hosts Packy McCormick and Julia DeWahl to discuss the future of nuclear energy as well as other energy sources. Daffy is offering Econ 102 listeners a free $25 for the charity of their choice when they join: https://www.daffy.org/econ102 Check out Erik's new show Request for Startups featuring a rotating cast of founders and investors (including Dan) sharing their requests for startups they want to exist in the world, and also their stories of navigating the idea maze in different sectors so founders don’t have to reinvent the wheel anymore. The first episode is out now - we over better dating apps, references as a service, and WeWork for productivity Watch and Subscribe on Substack: https://requestforstartups.substack.com/p/receipt-based-dating-reference-checks Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/request-for-startups-with-erik-torenberg/id1728659822 Spotify:https://open.spotify.com/show/739L1LR32QI2XyoZlRh5nv _ We're hiring across the board at Turpentine and for Erik's personal team on other projects he's incubating. He's hiring a Chief of Staff, EA, Head of Special Projects, Investment Associate, and more. For a list of JDs, check out: eriktorenberg.com. – Sponsors: GIVEWELL | DAFFY | NETSUITE Have you ever wondered where your donation could have the most impact? GiveWell has now spent over 15 years researching charitable organizations and only directs funding to the highest impact opportunities they’ve found in global health and poverty alleviation. Make informed decisions about high-impact giving. If you’ve never donated through GiveWell before, you can have your donation matched up to $100 before the end of the year, or as long as matching funds last. To claim your match, go to https://givewell.org and pick “Podcast” and enter Econ 102 at checkout. Daffy is the most modern and accessible donor-advised fund, making it easier to put money aside for charity. You can make your tax-deductible contributions all at once or set aside a little each week or month. And you don’t just have to donate cash, you can easily contribute stocks, ETFs, or crypto. Plus, you never have to track receipts from your donations again. It’s free to get started and Econ 102 listeners get $25 towards the charity of their choice. Daffy is offering Econ 102 listeners a free $25 for the charity of their choice when they join Daffy https://www.daffy.org/econ102 NetSuite has 25 years of providing financial software for all your business needs. More than 36,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, gaining visibility and control over their financials, inventory, HR, eCommerce, and more. If you’re looking for an ERP platform head to NetSuite http://netsuite.com/102 and download your own customized KPI checklist. – Econ 102 is a part of the Turpentine podcast network. To learn more: www.turpentine.co – LINKS: Noahpinion on Substack: https://www.noahpinion.blog/ Age of Miracle's YouTube Channel: https://www.youtube.com/@age-of-miracles/videos – X / TWITTER: @noahpinion (Noah) @packyM (Packy) @juliadewahl (Julia) @eriktorenberg (Erik) – TIMESTAMPS (00:00) Episode Preview (01:20) Energy in 2050 (02:35) Nuclear’s Learning Curve (08:08) Building Nuclear vs Oil & Gas (12:11) SPONSORS: GIVEWELL & DAFFY (14:28) Case for Solar Energy (16:52) Land acquisition costs (19:39) Storage (25:16) Turning nuclear on and off (28:29) SPONSORS: GIVEWELL (30:54) Intermittency problems (35:49) Texas and Japan’s Batteries (41:11) Land for Energy (45:14) Wind (47:46) Building solar (50:32) When energy is cheap, what’s valuable? (54:39) Fusion

6 Dec 202355min

The Trillion Dollar Non-Profit Sector, The Politicization of Science, & AI Tutors

The Trillion Dollar Non-Profit Sector, The Politicization of Science, & AI Tutors

Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg discuss the rise in pseudoscience, the “administrification” in America, the trillion-dollar non-profit sector, and more. Daffy is offering Econ 102 listeners a free $25 for the charity of their choice when they join: https://www.daffy.org/econ102 Check out Erik's new show Request for Startups featuring a rotating cast of founders and investors (including Dan) sharing their requests for startups they want to exist in the world, and also their stories of navigating the idea maze in different sectors so founders don’t have to reinvent the wheel anymore. The first episode is out now - we over better dating apps, references as a service, and WeWork for productivity Watch and Subscribe on Substack: https://requestforstartups.substack.com/p/receipt-based-dating-reference-checks Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/request-for-startups-with-erik-torenberg/id1728659822 Spotify:https://open.spotify.com/show/739L1LR32QI2XyoZlRh5nv –  We're hiring across the board at Turpentine and for Erik's personal team on other projects he's incubating. He's hiring a Chief of Staff, EA, Head of Special Projects, Investment Associate, and more. For a list of JDs, check out: eriktorenberg.com. –  Sponsors: GIVEWELL | DAFFY | NETSUITE Have you ever wondered where your donation could have the most impact? GiveWell has now spent over 15 years researching charitable organizations and only directs funding to the highest impact opportunities they’ve found in global health and poverty alleviation. Make informed decisions about high-impact giving. If you’ve never donated through GiveWell before, you can have your donation matched up to $100 before the end of the year, or as long as matching funds last. To claim your match, go to https://givewell.org and pick “Podcast” and enter Econ 102 at checkout. Daffy is the most modern and accessible donor-advised fund, making it easier to put money aside for charity. You can make your tax-deductible contributions all at once or set aside a little each week or month. And you don’t just have to donate cash, you can easily contribute stocks, ETFs, or crypto. Plus, you never have to track receipts from your donations again. It’s free to get started and Econ 102 listeners get $25 towards the charity of their choice. Daffy is offering Econ 102 listeners a free $25 for the charity of their choice when they join Daffy https://www.daffy.org/econ102 NetSuite has 25 years of providing financial software for all your business needs. More than 36,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, gaining visibility and control over their financials, inventory, HR, eCommerce, and more. If you’re looking for an ERP platform head to NetSuite http://netsuite.com/102 and download your own customized KPI checklist. –  Econ 102 is a part of the Turpentine podcast network. To learn more: www.turpentine.co – X / TWITTER: @noahpinion (Noah) @eriktorenberg (Erik) – Timestamps (00:00) Episode Preview (01:21) New Release Day (01:35) Q&As (02:43) The politicization of science (16:51) SPONSORS: GIVEWELL & DAFFY (18:17) Is Academia Primarily Left? (21:58) The Administrator Boom (25:59) SPONSORS: NETSUITE & ODD LOTS (29:13) The Trillion Dollar Non-profit sector (31:06) Special Interest Groups (32:42) Nonprofit vs Government (43:24) Politicians on Nonprofits (46:23) Global productivity slowdown (53:09) Charter Schools (55:17) Accelerating those at the bottom (59:24) A.I. Tutors

28 Nov 20231h 1min

Sam Altman, the Microsoft Bull Case, OpenAI and AI Live Players - The Riff with Byrne Hobart

Sam Altman, the Microsoft Bull Case, OpenAI and AI Live Players - The Riff with Byrne Hobart

This is a bonus episode for Econ 102 listeners of The Riff with Byrne Hobart and Erik Torenberg, recorded on Monday night 11/20, discussing the evolving story of Sam Altman’s ousting at OpenAI and new home at Microsoft, what OpenAI's next pivot could look like, the new competitive landscape for the big AI players, and Effective Altruism’s role in this drama. Need Soc 2 compliance? Get 20% off your first year of Secureframe by mentioning "The Riff" during your free demo: https://secureframe.com/riff The Riff is a new podcast from the Turpentine podcast network. Subscribe to The Riff: https://link.chtbl.com/theriff We're hiring across the board at Turpentine and for Erik's personal team on other projects he's incubating. He's hiring a Chief of Staff, EA, Head of Special Projects, Investment Associate, and more. For a list of JDs, check out: eriktorenberg.com. -- Sponsors: GIVEWELL | DAFFY | NETSUITE | SECUREFRAME Have you ever wondered where your donation could have the most impact? GiveWell has now spent over 15 years researching charitable organizations and only directs funding to the highest impact opportunities they’ve found in global health and poverty alleviation. Make informed decisions about high-impact giving. If you’ve never donated through GiveWell before, you can have your donation matched up to $100 before the end of the year, or as long as matching funds last. To claim your match, go to https://givewell.org and pick “Podcast” and enter Econ 102 at checkout. Daffy is the most modern and accessible donor-advised fund, making it easier to put money aside for charity. You can make your tax-deductible contributions all at once or set aside a little each week or month. And you don’t just have to donate cash, you can easily contribute stocks, ETFs, or crypto. Plus, you never have to track receipts from your donations again. It’s free to get started and Econ 102 listeners get $25 towards the charity of their choice. Daffy is offering Econ 102 listeners a free $25 for the charity of their choice when they join Daffy https://www.daffy.org/econ102 NetSuite has 25 years of providing financial software for all your business needs. More than 36,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, gaining visibility and control over their financials, inventory, HR, eCommerce, and more. If you’re looking for an ERP platform head to NetSuite http://netsuite.com/102 and download your own customized KPI checklist. Secureframe: the only compliance automation platform with AI capabilities that help customers speed up cloud remediation and security questionnaires. Get 20% off your first year of Secureframe by mentioning "The Riff" during your free demo: https://secureframe.com/riff -- LINKS: Byrne's writing: https://thediff.co -- X / TWITTER: @eriktorenberg @byrnehobart -- TIMESTAMPS: (00:00) Introduction from Erik (00:50) Non obvious thoughts about governance and legal structures (03:50) Could the board have found out something about Sam? (05:00) Tech’s online coordination and choosing sides (06:20) Why haven’t the OpenAI board shared their reasoning? (12:20) Are they going to bring Sam back? (15:20) What should OpenAI’s pivot be? (17:35) Sponsor: Secureframe (18:40) Analyzing Microsoft's moves and the sweetheart deal (22:00) Satya's succession plans (25:05) OpenAI's unique governance structure (28:10) Why Byrne is long on Microsoft (36:00) What explains Microsoft's turnaround? (38:15) Meta and Google (44:20) Which of these companies Byrne would short: Apple, Amazon, Google, Facebook, Microsoft (46:20) Was this a coup from the Effective Altruism movement? This show is produced by Turpentine: a network of podcasts, newsletters, and more, covering technology, business, and culture — all from the perspective of industry insiders and experts. We’re launching new shows every week, and we’re looking for industry-leading sponsors — if you think that might be you and your company, email us at erik@turpentine.co.

21 Nov 202358min

Singapore, Xi Jingping Cleans Up SF, & Progressive Dystopias

Singapore, Xi Jingping Cleans Up SF, & Progressive Dystopias

Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg discuss Noah’s travel reflections from Singapore, the recent San Francisco cleanup, and the dystopian routes of progressivism. Daffy is offering Econ 102 listeners a free $25 for the charity of their choice when they join: https://www.daffy.org/econ102 We're hiring across the board at Turpentine and for Erik's personal team on other projects he's incubating. He's hiring a Chief of Staff, EA, Head of Special Projects, Investment Associate, and more. For a list of JDs, check out: eriktorenberg.com. – Sponsors: GIVEWELL | DAFFY | NETSUITE Have you ever wondered where your donation could have the most impact? GiveWell has now spent over 15 years researching charitable organizations and only directs funding to the highest impact opportunities they’ve found in global health and poverty alleviation. Make informed decisions about high-impact giving. If you’ve never donated through GiveWell before, you can have your donation matched up to $100 before the end of the year, or as long as matching funds last. To claim your match, go to https://givewell.org and pick “Podcast” and enter Econ 102 at checkout. Daffy is the most modern and accessible donor-advised fund, making it easier to put money aside for charity. You can make your tax-deductible contributions all at once or set aside a little each week or month. And you don’t just have to donate cash, you can easily contribute stocks, ETFs, or crypto. Plus, you never have to track receipts from your donations again. It’s free to get started and Econ 102 listeners get $25 towards the charity of their choice. Daffy is offering Econ 102 listeners a free $25 for the charity of their choice when they join Daffy https://www.daffy.org/econ102 NetSuite has 25 years of providing financial software for all your business needs. More than 36,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, gaining visibility and control over their financials, inventory, HR, eCommerce, and more. If you’re looking for an ERP platform head to NetSuite http://netsuite.com/102 and download your own customized KPI checklist. – Econ 102 is a part of the Turpentine podcast network. To learn more: www.turpentine.co – RECOMMENDED PODCAST: Odd Lots is a Bloomberg podcast hosted by Joe Weisenthal and Tracy Alloway. Each week they speak with the perfect guest to explore the most interesting topics in finance, markets and economics. https://www.bloomberg.com/oddlots – RECOMMENDED PODCAST:  Every week investor and writer of the popular newsletter The Diff, Byrne Hobart, and co-host Erik Torenberg discuss today’s major inflection points in technology, business, and markets – and help listeners build a diversified portfolio of trends and ideas for the future. Subscribe to “The Riff” with Byrne Hobart and Erik Torenberg: https://link.chtbl.com/theriff – RECOMMENDED PODCAST: LIVE PLAYERS Join host Samo Burja and Erik Torenberg as they analyze the mindsets of today’s most intriguing business leaders, investors, and innovators through the lens of their bold actions and contrarian worldviews. You’ll come away with a deeper understanding of the development of technology, business, political power, culture and more. LIsten and subscribe everywhere you get your podcasts: https://link.chtbl.com/liveplayers. – TIMESTAMPS: (00:00) Episode Preview (01:53) Noah’s Travel Reflection (03:58) Singapore’s Secret to Solar Punk (07:33-18:08) Policies we can learn from Singapore (10:06) Healthcare (11:33) Housing Policy (16:35) Singapore and El Salvador’s Strict Crime Policies (18:09) Sponsor: GIVEWELL (19:35) San Francisco’s Sudden Cleanup (22:00) Government and Social Media and AI (31:00) Sponsors: DAFFY and NETSUITE (33:22) Progressive Dystopias (39:47) Immigration vs Gentification (43:38) Progressive Education (46:47) Why Liberalism is Losing the Information War (51:50) Banning Tik Tok (57:32) Pronouncing Xi Jing Ping Correctly

15 Nov 20231h

China, Russia, the Middle East, and Geopolitical Predictions

China, Russia, the Middle East, and Geopolitical Predictions

Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg discuss the new geopolitical dynamics in Asia and the Middle East, why demographics may mean waning conflict, and take a dive into Ireland’s wealth. Daffy is offering Econ 102 listeners a free $25 for the charity of their choice when they join: https://www.daffy.org/econ102 We're hiring across the board at Turpentine and for Erik's personal team on other projects he's incubating. He's hiring a Chief of Staff, EA, Head of Special Projects, Investment Associate, and more. For a list of JDs, check out: eriktorenberg.com. –  Sponsors: GIVEWELL | DAFFY | NETSUITE Have you ever wondered where your donation could have the most impact? GiveWell has now spent over 15 years researching charitable organizations and only directs funding to the highest impact opportunities they’ve found in global health and poverty alleviation. Make informed decisions about high-impact giving. If you’ve never donated through GiveWell before, you can have your donation matched up to $100 before the end of the year, or as long as matching funds last. To claim your match, go to https://givewell.org and pick “Podcast” + enter Econ 102 at checkout. Daffy is the most modern and accessible donor-advised fund, making it easier to put money aside for charity. You can make your tax-deductible contributions all at once or set aside a little each week or month. And you don’t just have to donate cash, you can easily contribute stocks, ETFs, or crypto. Plus, you never have to track receipts from your donations again. It’s free to get started and Econ 102 listeners get $25 towards the charity of their choice. Daffy is offering Econ 102 listeners a free $25 for the charity of their choice when they join Daffy https://www.daffy.org/econ102 NetSuite has 25 years of providing financial software for all your business needs. More than 36,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, gaining visibility and control over their financials, inventory, HR, eCommerce, and more. If you’re looking for an ERP platform head to NetSuite http://netsuite.com/102 and download your own customized KPI checklist. –  Econ 102 is a part of the Turpentine podcast network. To learn more: www.turpentine.co – RECOMMENDED PODCAST: Odd Lots is a Bloomberg podcast hosted by Joe Weisenthal and Tracy Alloway. Each week they speak with the perfect guest to explore the most interesting topics in finance, markets and economics. https://www.bloomberg.com/oddlots – RECOMMENDED PODCAST:  Every week investor and writer of the popular newsletter The Diff, Byrne Hobart, and co-host Erik Torenberg discuss today’s major inflection points in technology, business, and markets – and help listeners build a diversified portfolio of trends and ideas for the future. Subscribe to “The Riff” with Byrne Hobart and Erik Torenberg: https://link.chtbl.com/theriff – LINKS: - Noah Smith, How Ireland Got So Rich https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/how-ireland-got-so-rich - Noah Smith, The Middle East is Getting Older: https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/the-middle-east-is-getting-older – X / TWITTER: @noahpinion (Noah) @eriktorenberg (Erik) – TIMESTAMPS: (00:00) Episode Preview (01:47) Noah’s reflections from the Kilkenomics Festival ​​(02:44) Why and how Ireland got rich (11:14) What is the legacy of Brexit? (13:16) Pro and counter arguments for Brexit (15:27) Sponsors: GiveWell | Daffy (18:10) Noah on the 2nd Cold War (24:20) Why Asia is more important to the US than the Middle East (29:57) Sponsor: NetSuite (31:04) Iran in the Israel-Gaza conflict (34:45) Predictions for the next decade in Middle East (41:17) On fertility rates  (45:51) Where would Israel be in 10 years? (50:13) The endless pressures on Israel (51:07) What would need to be true for Noah to be bullish on Israel? (57:08) Countering the collaboration between Gaza and Israel

8 Nov 20231h 7min

What's Really Happening With the Economy?

What's Really Happening With the Economy?

Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg discuss the state of the economy, whether tech and the VC ecosystem are doing well or facing a 'rolling recession', and unpack assumptions about wealth in the United States. Make informed decision for high impact donations with GiveWell, which is offering Econ 102 listeners donation matching up to $100. To claim your match, go to givewell.org ➡️ pick “Podcast” enter Econ 102 at checkout. We're hiring across the board at Turpentine and for Erik's personal team on other projects he's incubating. He's hiring a Chief of Staff, EA, Head of Special Projects, Investment Associate, and more. For a list of JDs, check out: eriktorenberg.com. – Sponsors: GIVEWELL | DAFFY | NETSUITE Have you ever wondered where your donation could have the most impact? GiveWell has now spent over 15 years researching charitable organizations and only directs funding to the HIGHEST-IMPACT opportunities they’ve found in global health and poverty alleviation. Make informed decisions about high-impact giving. If you’ve never donated through GiveWell before, you can have your donation matched up to $100 before the end of the year, or as long as matching funds last. To claim your match, go to givewell.org and pick “Podcast” and enter Econ 102 at checkout. Daffy is the most modern and accessible donor-advised fund, making it easier to put money aside for charity. You can make your tax-deductible contributions all at once or set aside a little each week or month. And you don't just have to donate cash, you can easily contribute stocks, ETFs, or crypto. Plus, you never have to track receipts from your donations again. It’s free to get started and Econ 102 listeners get $25 towards the charity of their choice. Daffy is offering Econ 102 listeners a free $25 for the charity of their choice when they join Daffy https://www.daffy.org/econ102 NetSuite has 25 years of providing financial software for all your business needs. More than 36,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, gaining visibility and control over their financials, inventory, HR, eCommerce, and more. If you’re looking for an ERP platform head to NetSuite ✅ http://netsuite.com/102 and download your own customized KPI checklist. – Econ 102 is a part of the Turpentine podcast network. To learn more: www.turpentine.co – X / TWITTER: @noahpinion (Noah) @eriktorenberg (Erik) – TIMESTAMPS: (00:00) Episode Preview (01:05) The Rolling Recession? (03:55) When Are Venture Capitalists gonna get rich again? (06:15) Will rate cuts go down? (08:15) Factory Model of Venture Capital (10:20) Crypto's correlation to the markets (14:15) Sector specific shocks screwing the economy (16:50) Sponsors: GiveWell | Daffy (20:00) The temperature metaphor in economics (22:41) Regular Americans are getting richer (25:02) How accurate are the measurement of inequality statistics in terms of reflecting true inequality? (30:15) Why inequality might be good in economics (36:55) What mechanisms led to inequality going down (41:00) Skyrocketing prices and poor regulation of markets (47:00) Piketty's arguments on inequality This show is produced by Turpentine: a network of podcasts, newsletters, and more, covering technology, business, and culture — all from the perspective of industry insiders and experts. We’re launching new shows every week, and we’re looking for industry-leading sponsors — if you think that might be you and your company, email us at erik@turpentine.co.

1 Nov 202352min

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