Dwarkesh and Noah Smith on AGI and the Economy

In this episode, Erik Torenberg is joined in the studio by Dwarkesh Patel and Noah Smith to explore one of the biggest questions in tech: what exactly is artificial general intelligence (AGI), and how close are we to achieving it?

They break down:

• Competing definitions of AGI — economic vs. cognitive vs. “godlike”
• Why reasoning alone isn’t enough — and what capabilities models still lack
• The debate over substitution vs. complementarity between AI and human labor
• What an AI-saturated economy might look like — from growth projections to UBI, sovereign wealth funds, and galaxy-colonizing robots
• How AGI could reshape global power, geopolitics, and the future of work

Along the way, they tackle failed predictions, surprising AI limitations, and the philosophical and economic consequences of building machines that think, and perhaps one day, act, like us.

Timecodes:

0:00 Intro

0:33 Defining AGI and General Intelligence

2:38 Human and AI Capabilities Compared

7:00 AI Replacing Jobs and Shifting Employment

15:00 Economic Growth Trajectories After AGI

17:15 Consumer Demand in an AI-Driven Economy

31:00 Redistribution, UBI, and the Future of Income

31:58 Human Roles and the Evolving Meaning of Work

41:21 Technology, Society, and the Human Future

45:43 AGI Timelines and Forecasting Horizons

54:04 The Challenge of Predicting AI's Path

57:37 Nationalization, Geopolitics, and the Global AI Race

1:07:10 Brand and Network Effects in AI Dominance

1:09:31 Final Thoughts

Resources:

Find Dwarkesh on X: https://x.com/dwarkesh_sp

Find Dwarkesh on YT: https://www.youtube.com/c/DwarkeshPatel

Subscribe to Dwarkesh’s Substack: https://www.dwarkesh.com/

Find Noah on X: https://x.com/noahpinion

Subscribe to Noah’s Substack: https://www.noahpinion.blog/

Stay Updated:

Let us know what you think: https://ratethispodcast.com/a16z

Find a16z on Twitter: https://twitter.com/a16z

Find a16z on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/a16z

Subscribe on your favorite podcast app: https://a16z.simplecast.com/

Follow our host: https://x.com/eriktorenberg

Please note that the content here is for informational purposes only; should NOT be taken as legal, business, tax, or investment advice or be used to evaluate any investment or security; and is not directed at any investors or potential investors in any a16z fund. a16z and its affiliates may maintain investments in the companies discussed. For more details please see a16z.com/disclosures.