Why Hardware Is the Way to Win the AI Race

Why Hardware Is the Way to Win the AI Race

In this episode of Live Players, Samo Buja and Erik Torenberg discuss the pivotal role of hardware in the advancement of AI, the strategic importance of semiconductor manufacturing, and the intricate geopolitical dynamics between the US, China, and Taiwan.


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LINKS:
Bismarck Analysis: https://brief.bismarckanalysis.com/


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HIGHLIGHTS FROM THE EPISODE:
• The thesis is that hardware is crucial to winning the AI race because capital accumulation leads to more data gathering, which has been happening since before AI through platforms like social media, smartphones, and self-driving cars.
• Two critical hardware aspects are data collection platforms (sensors, cameras, mapping) and computational infrastructure (data centers, chips), where proximity to chip manufacturing provides competitive advantages.
• NVIDIA's dominance stems partly from founder Jensen Huang's Taiwanese-American background and personal relationships with TSMC leadership, creating what could be called a "Taiwan lobby" in Silicon Valley.
• Taiwan's economic interests align with mainland China (half their manufacturing is there) while their political interests align with the US, creating strategic tensions.
• Export controls on semiconductors to China came too late and actually incentivized China to develop their full semiconductor stack independently.
• The US should create a special industrial zone near San Francisco with cheap energy, reduced regulations, and government funding to compete with China in chip manufacturing.
• China no longer has cheap labor but rather very skilled, expensive labor, especially in coastal areas where wages can reach $100-200K annually.
• A second-best option for the US would be building semiconductor manufacturing in Texas near existing infrastructure like Starbase.
• The recommended strategy includes targeting allies' semiconductor companies for replacement, implementing talent acquisition programs, and using defense/national security arguments to justify the investment.
• The US should start with purely American-made chips for sensitive government applications (NSA, CIA) as a national security imperative.
• Co-locating chip fabs, data centers, and AI labs would create a powerful feedback loop where 15-minute drives replace 15-hour flights for collaboration.
• On automation, AI will likely automate white-collar knowledge work first since digital activities are easier to train on than physical world tasks.
• Automating knowledge work could lead to dangerous political consequences, as displaced white-collar workers might turn to activism and push for protectionist policies.
• There's a risk that AI automation could lead to negative economic growth if it only automates 95% of white-collar work while leaving physical jobs intact.
• The "laptop class" poses more political danger than physical workers because they have better tools for organizing and influencing policy.
• Physical automation will likely require specialized companies for each domain (baristas, waiters, etc.) rather than general-purpose robots, leading to gradual economic growth.
• On immigration, while top talent is desirable, roughly half of crucial industry leadership should be domestic citizens to ensure patriotic alignment with national interests.
• Having homogeneous cultural groups within companies (speaking only Hindi, Mandarin, etc.) can create unfair advantages and isn't true meritocracy.
• Immigration works best with diversity from many countries rather than concentration from single nations.

Avsnitt(53)

Civilizational Differences

Civilizational Differences

In today’s episode of Live Players, we’re featuring a discussion between Samo Burja, Rudyard Lynch and Erik Torenberg about the inherent differences between civilizations and their impact on history and politics. They explore the parallels and distinctions between ancient civilizations like Babylon and modern entities like Silicon Valley, the influence of Abrahamic religions, and how societal patterns challenge our current understanding. —🔥 Apply to join over 400 founders and Execs in the Turpentine Network: https://www.turpentinenetwork.co/ —RECOMMENDED PODCASTS:🎙️History 102 with WhatifAltHistEvery week, creator of WhatifAltHist Rudyard Lynch and Erik Torenberg cover a major topic in history in depth -- in under an hour. This season will cover classical Greece, early America, the Vikings, medieval Islam, ancient China, the fall of the Roman Empire, and more.Subscribe on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/36Kqo3BMMUBGTDo1IEYihm Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/history-102-with-whatifalthists-rudyard-lynch-and/id1730633913 YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@History102-qg5oj 🎙️This Won't LastEavesdrop on Keith Rabois, Kevin Ryan, Logan Bartlett, and Zach Weinberg's monthly backchannel. They unpack their hottest takes on the future of tech, business, venture, investing, and politics.Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/this-wont-last-with-keith-rabois-kevin-ryan-logan/id1765665937Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/2HwSNeVLL1MXy0RjFPyOSzYouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@ThisWontLastpodcast🎙️Complex Systems with Patrick McKenziePatrick McKenzie (@patio11) talks to experts who understand the complicated but not unknowable systems we rely on. You might be surprised at how quickly Patrick and his guests can put you in the top 1% of understanding for stock trading, tech hiring, and more.Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/3Mos4VE3figVXleHDqfXOH Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/complex-systems-with-patrick-mckenzie-patio11/id1753399812 —SPONSOR:Get first-party targeting with Brave's private ad platform: cookieless and future proof ad formats for all your business needs. Performance meets privacy. Head to https://brave.com/brave-ads/ and mention “MoZ” when signing up for a 25% discount on your first campaign.—LINKS:Bismark Analysis: https://brief.bismarckanalysis.com/Whatifalthist YouTube Channel: https://www.youtube.com/Whatifalthist —FOLLOW ON X:@eriktorenberg@samoburja@whatifalthist@turpentinemedia—TIMESTAMPS:(00:00) Intro(00:29) A deep dive into civilizational differences(03:11) The influence of Abrahamic religions(07:53) Classical vs. modern western civilization(12:21) The rise and fall of civilizations(16:59) Literacy and its impact on societies(20:30) Sponsor: Brave(26:20) Modern civilization and its roots(40:41) The future of religion and technology(52:21) Obscure civilizations and their impact(57:05) Wrap

19 Sep 202456min

Globalization vs. Innovation

Globalization vs. Innovation

This week on Live Players, Samo Burja and Erik Torenberg debate the merit and harms of globalization. They explore the implications of Peter Thiel's views on globalization potentially hindering innovation, and analyze the historical context and current impacts of globalization on innovation, trade, and political stability. They also discuss the resilience and adaptability of different economic policies, the role of regional industries, and the influence of technological advancements on global power dynamics.—🔥 Apply to join over 400 founders and Execs in the Turpentine Network: https://www.turpentinenetwork.co/—RECOMMENDED PODCASTS:🎙️This Won't LastEavesdrop on Keith Rabois, Kevin Ryan, Logan Bartlett, and Zach Weinberg's monthly backchannel. They unpack their hottest takes on the future of tech, business, venture, investing, and politics.Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/this-wont-last-with-keith-rabois-kevin-ryan-logan/id1765665937Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/2HwSNeVLL1MXy0RjFPyOSzYouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@ThisWontLastpodcast 🎙️Complex Systems with Patrick McKenziePatrick McKenzie (@patio11) talks to experts who understand the complicated but not unknowable systems we rely on. You might be surprised at how quickly Patrick and his guests can put you in the top 1% of understanding for stock trading, tech hiring, and more.Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/3Mos4VE3figVXleHDqfXOH Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/complex-systems-with-patrick-mckenzie-patio11/id1753399812 —SPONSOR:Get first-party targeting with Brave's private ad platform: cookieless and future proof ad formats for all your business needs. Performance meets privacy. Head to https://brave.com/brave-ads/ and mention “MoZ” when signing up for a 25% discount on your first campaign.—FOLLOW: Samo Burja:LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/samo-burjaTwitter: https://twitter.com/SamoBurja Erik Torenberg:LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/eriktorenberg/Twitter: https://twitter.com/eriktorenberg —TIMESTAMPS:00:00 Intro00:28 The debate on globalization02:21 Economic impacts of globalization09:01 Historical context of global trade16:26 Political implications of globalization22:07 Future of globalization and political centralization27:33 Sponsor: Brave28:40 Potential scenarios for World War III34:46 The rise of network states44:42 Populism and immigration policies49:46 Wrap

11 Sep 202449min

AI's Impact on Geopolitics

AI's Impact on Geopolitics

In this episode of Live Players, we’re releasing a conversation between Nathan Labenz of the Cognitive Revolution Podcast and Samo Burja on the strategic dynamics of artificial intelligence through a geopolitical lens. They discuss AI's trajectory, the chip supply chain, US-China relations, and the challenges of AI safety and militarization. 🔥 Apply to join over 400 founders and Execs in the Turpentine Network: https://www.turpentinenetwork.co/ —RECOMMENDED PODCAST: 🎙️ This Won't Last - Eavesdrop on Keith Rabois, Kevin Ryan, Logan Bartlett, and Zach Weinberg's monthly backchannel. They unpack their hottest takes on the future of tech, business, venture, investing, and politics.Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/id1765665937Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/2HwSNeVLL1MXy0RjFPyOSzYouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@ThisWontLastpodcast—SPONSOR:Get first-party targeting with Brave's private ad platform: cookieless and future proof ad formats for all your business needs. Performance meets privacy. Head to https://brave.com/brave-ads/ and mention “MoZ” when signing up for a 25% discount on your first campaign.—LINKS:The Cognitive Revolution Website: https://www.cognitiverevolution.aiBismarck Analysis: https://www.bismarckanalysis.com/ Subscribe to the Bismarck Brief: https://brief.bismarckanalysis.com/ —FOLLOW: Nathan Labenz:Twitter (Podcast): https://twitter.com/cogrev_podcast Twitter (Nathan): https://twitter.com/labenz LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/nathanlabenz/ Samo Burja:LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/samo-burjaTwitter: https://twitter.com/SamoBurja —TIMESTAMPS:(00:00) Intro(01:11) The evolution and Impact of AI(03:17) Scientific progress and AI(09:41) The role of AI scientists(11:57) Challenges in AI development(18:24) Sponsor: Brave(19:27) The economic impact of generative AI(23:49) The Cambrian Explosion of different definitions of intelligence(28:23) Strategic advice for national governments on AI(37:05) US-China economic competition(40:38) Other live players in the global AI landscape(41:34) The rise of Indian and European AI giants(44:51) The origins and implications of US-China AI Rivalry(46:57) The chip ban and its consequences(48:57) Strategies for US technological leadership(50:07) The role of ideological diversity in AI development(53:53) Avoiding the AI arms race(57:45) The future of AI: weaponization vs. peaceful applications(01:12:57) Open source and global coordination(01:13:56) Generative AI in personal workflows(01:17:33) Wrap

6 Sep 20241h 17min

Fraud in Academia with Ben Landau-Taylor

Fraud in Academia with Ben Landau-Taylor

In this episode of Live Players, Erik Torenberg and Samo Burja are joined by Ben Landau-Taylor, a Senior Analyst at Bismarck Analysis. Ben recently published an article in Palladium Magazine about the pervasive problem of fraud in academia. They discussed how fraudulent activities, particularly in medical research, often go undetected due to flawed peer review processes and institutional protectionism. They explore key cases, and possible solutions, including external watchdogs, intellectual authorities and regulatory bodies in maintaining academic integrity.🔥 Apply to join over 400 founders and Execs in the Turpentine Network: https://hmplogxqz0y.typeform.com/to/JCkphVqj—RECOMMENDED PODCAST:🎙️ This Won't Last - Eavesdrop on Keith Rabois, Kevin Ryan, Logan Bartlett, and Zach Weinberg's monthly backchannel. They unpack their hottest takes on the future of tech, business, venture, investing, and politics.Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/id1765665937Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/2HwSNeVLL1MXy0RjFPyOSzYouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@ThisWontLastpodcast—SPONSOR:Get first-party targeting with Brave's private ad platform: cookieless and future proof ad formats for all your business needs. Performance meets privacy. Head to https://brave.com/brave-ads/ and mention “MoZ” when signing up for a 25% discount on your first campaign.—LINKS:The Academic Culture of Fraud: https://www.palladiummag.com/2024/08/02/the-academic-culture-of-fraud/ Bismarck Brief: https://brief.bismarckanalysis.com/ Bismarck Analysis: https://www.bismarckanalysis.com/ —FOLLOW: Ben Landau-Taylor:Website: https://www.benlandautaylor.com/LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ben-landau-taylor-19a00056/ Twitter: https://twitter.com/benlandautaylor Samo Burja:LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/samo-burjaTwitter: https://twitter.com/SamoBurja Erik Torrenberg:LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/eriktorenberg/Twitter: https://twitter.com/eriktorenberg —TIMESTAMPS:(00:00) Intro(01:32) Ben’s article: "The Academic Culture of Fraud" in Palladium magazine(03:36) Examples of fraudulent studies and researchers (Sylvain Lesné case)(05:29) Incentives and cultural factors enabling fraud(07:35) Historical context and modern academia(10:46) Scientific fraud and its consequences(12:48) Intellectual authority and legitimacy(19:50) Sponsor: Brave(26:49) External pressure on academia(28:52) Role of journalism and other institutions in exposing academic fraud(31:24) The need for external oversight in academia(32:12) The complex relationship between the government and academia(34:13) Proposals for scientific integrity(39:56) Challenges in science and bureaucracy(43:21) Nonprofit solutions for scientific fraud(49:42) Venture capital and scientific integrity(54:02) Overview of Bismarck Analysis and its work in strategic research & consulting(56:54) Wrap

28 Aug 202456min

Mass Immigration Won't Save Europe

Mass Immigration Won't Save Europe

In this episode of Live Players, Erik Torenberg and Samo Burja explore why mass immigration may not solve Europe's economic woes.They talk about cultural assimilation difficulties, political tensions, and potential long-term consequences for European societies.---This show is produced by Turpentine: a network of podcasts, newsletters, and more, covering technology, business, and culture — all from the perspective of industry insiders and experts. We’re launching new shows every week, and we’re looking for industry-leading sponsors — if you think that might be you and your company, email us at erik@turpentine.co.---RECOMMENDED PODCASTS:🎙️ This Won't Last - Eavesdrop on Keith Rabois, Kevin Ryan, Logan Bartlett, and Zach Weinberg's monthly backchannel. They unpack their hottest takes on the future of tech, business, venture, investing, and politics.Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/id1765665937Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/2HwSNeVLL1MXy0RjFPyOSzYouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@ThisWontLastpodcast---SPONSORS:🌐 Ready to achieve your 2024 goals? Start learning a new language with Babbel in just three weeks. Enjoy app lessons, live classes, and podcasts designed for real-world conversations. Get up to 60% off at Babbel.com/torenberg Get first-party targeting with Brave's private ad platform: cookieless and future proof ad formats for all your business needs. Performance meets privacy. Head to https://brave.com/brave-ads/ and mention “MoZ” when signing up for a 25% discount on your first campaign.---LINKS:Subscribe to Bismarck Brief: https://brief.bismarckanalysis.com/---TIMESTAMPS:(00:00) Introduction(00:39) Challenges of European Immigration(00:41) Historical Context and Current Events(01:26) Integration and Multiculturalism(06:54) Labor Markets and Economic Impact(21:44) Questioning Immigration as a Solution(27:12) Sponsor: Babbel | Brave(29:40) Proposed Solutions and Predictions(41:38) Final Thoughts and Next Steps(48:56) Conclusion

21 Aug 202446min

The Eastern European Experiment

The Eastern European Experiment

In this episode of Live Players, Erik Torenberg and Samo Burja dive deep into the complex transformation of Eastern Europe since the fall of communism. They discuss the region's economic evolution from small business-driven economies to potential tech hubs, examine how countries like Poland balance traditional values with Western influences, and analyze the impact of EU integration. Samo offers predictions about Eastern Europe's economic growth, social changes, and geopolitical alignments, providing a comprehensive look at one of Europe's most dynamic regions and its place on the global stage.---This show is produced by Turpentine: a network of podcasts, newsletters, and more, covering technology, business, and culture — all from the perspective of industry insiders and experts. We’re launching new shows every week, and we’re looking for industry-leading sponsors — if you think that might be you and your company, email us at erik@turpentine.co.---RECOMMENDED PODCASTS:🎙️ This Won't Last - Eavesdrop on Keith Rabois, Kevin Ryan, Logan Bartlett, and Zach Weinberg's monthly backchannel. They unpack their hottest takes on the future of tech, business, venture, investing, and politics.Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/id1765665937Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/2HwSNeVLL1MXy0RjFPyOSzYouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@ThisWontLastpodcast---SPONSORS:🌐 Ready to achieve your 2024 goals? Start learning a new language with Babbel in just three weeks. Enjoy app lessons, live classes, and podcasts designed for real-world conversations. Get up to 60% off at Babbel.com/torenberg Get first-party targeting with Brave's private ad platform: cookieless and future proof ad formats for all your business needs. Performance meets privacy. Head to https://brave.com/brave-ads/ and mention “MoZ” when signing up for a 25% discount on your first campaign.---LINKS:Subscribe to Bismarck Brief: https://brief.bismarckanalysis.com/---TIMESTAMPS:(00:00) Intro(00:28) Diving into Eastern Europe(00:48) Old Europe vs. New Europe(02:06) Political and cultural divides(02:22) Nuclear energy and policy differences(03:37) Immigration policies and economic impact(05:41) Economic growth in Eastern Europe(07:41) Demographic challenges and migration(08:47) Western Europe's dependency on Eastern Europe(11:45) Taxation and business environment(15:07) Sponsors: Babbel | Brave(22:19) Small business and political landscape(24:04) Education and credentialism(27:46) Comparing nationalism and economic models in Europe(28:33) Generational shifts in Eastern Europe(29:46) Gender norms and education in Eastern Europe(34:46) Westernization and cultural convergence(36:59) Future economic and social trends in Eastern Europe(39:13) Influence of American ideology and media(53:08) Geopolitical dynamics and defense industry(55:14) Wrap

14 Aug 202453min

EU in Flux

EU in Flux

In this episode of Live Players, Erik Torenberg and Samo Burja dive deep into the European Union. They examine the bloc's historical foundation centered on peace and economic prosperity, contrasting its ambitious goals with its current realities. They discuss EU's challenges, including a fragmented digital market, inconsistencies in labor and defense policies, and bureaucratic hurdles. They also explore Brexit's impact, the interplay between the EU and NATO, and the implications of energy policies, immigration, and the possibility of a European superstate. —RECOMMENDED PODCASTS:🎙️ This Won't Last - Eavesdrop on Keith Rabois, Kevin Ryan, Logan Bartlett, and Zach Weinberg's monthly backchannel. They unpack their hottest takes on the future of tech, business, venture, investing, and politics.Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/id1765665937Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/2HwSNeVLL1MXy0RjFPyOSzYouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@ThisWontLastpodcast—SPONSORS:💥 Head to Squad to access global engineering without the headache and at a fraction of the cost: head to https://choosesquad.com/ and mention “Turpentine” to skip the waitlist.🌐 Ready to achieve your 2024 goals? Start learning a new language with Babbel in just three weeks. Enjoy app lessons, live classes, and podcasts designed for real-world conversations. Get up to 60% off at https://babbel.com/torenbergGet first-party targeting with Brave's private ad platform: cookieless and future proof ad formats for all your business needs. Performance meets privacy. Head to https://brave.com/brave-ads/ and mention “MoZ” when signing up for a 25% discount on your first campaign.—LINKS:Subscribe to Bismarck Brief - https://brief.bismarckanalysis.com/The American Challenge: https://www.amazon.com/American-Challenge-Jean-Jacques-Servan-Schreiber/dp/0689102461—TIMESTAMPS:(00:00) Intro(00:28) The Origins and Goals of the EU(01:56) Economic Challenges and Market Scale(04:57) Digital and Labor Market Fragmentation(08:18) The Vision of a European Super State(12:54) European Defense and Foreign Policy(18:24) Scientific and Industrial Policy in the EU(23:56) SPONSORS: Babbel | Brave(26:21) Brexit: Expectations vs. Reality(30:22) Economic and Political Tensions in Europe(33:05) The Future of the EU: Scenarios and Predictions(35:26) Challenges of EU Expansion and Decision Making(36:54) Energy Policies and Geopolitical Implications(42:48) The Future of European Integration(44:55) The Role of Higher Education in Europe(51:41) Multiculturalism and Immigration in Europe(58:46) Thoughts on European Integration(59:49) Wrap

2 Aug 202457min

Advice for the Next US President

Advice for the Next US President

In this episode of Live Players, Erik Torenberg and Samo Burja tackle the pressing challenges for the next U.S. president, focusing on bureaucratic inefficiencies and the need for reform. They discuss foreign policy, including managing relations with China, reassessing military strategies, and fostering economic alliances. They also address the inefficiencies in the non-profit sector's handling of social services and suggest innovative solutions such as creating special economic zones to boost manufacturing. They cover energy policy, advocating for cost-effective nuclear power and shifting defense priorities toward affordable drone technology. ---This show is produced by Turpentine: a network of podcasts, newsletters, and more, covering technology, business, and culture — all from the perspective of industry insiders and experts. We’re launching new shows every week, and we’re looking for industry-leading sponsors — if you think that might be you and your company, email us at erik@turpentine.co.--RECOMMENDED PODCASTS:🎙️1 to 100 | Hypergrowth Companies Worth JoiningEvery week we sit down with the founder of a hyper-growth company you should consider joining. Our goal is to give you the inside story behind breakout, early stage companies potentially worth betting your career on. This season, discover how the founders of Modal Labs, Clay, Mercor, and more built their products, cultures, and companies.Spotify:https://open.spotify.com/show/70NOWtWDY995C8qDqojxGwApple: https://podcasts.apple.com/podcast/id1762756034-📣 COMPLEX SYSTEMSPatrick McKenzie (@patio11) talks to experts who understand the complicated but not unknowable systems we rely on. You might be surprised at how quickly Patrick and his guests can put you in the top 1% of understanding for stock trading, tech hiring, and more.Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/3Mos4VE3figVXleHDqfXOHApple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/complex-systems-with-patrick-mckenzie-patio11/id1753399812--SPONSORS:Head to Beehiiv, the newsletter platform built for growth, to power your own. Connect with premium brands, scale your audience, and deliver a beautiful UX that stands out in an inbox. 🐝 https://Beehiiv.com and use code "MOZ" for 20% off your first three months🌐 Ready to achieve your 2024 goals? Start learning a new language with Babbel in just three weeks. Enjoy app lessons, live classes, and podcasts designed for real-world conversations. Get up to 60% off at Babbel.com/torenberg Get first-party targeting with Brave's private ad platform: cookieless and future proof ad formats for all your business needs. Performance meets privacy. Head to https://brave.com/brave-ads/ and mention “MoZ” when signing up for a 25% discount on your first campaign.---LINKS:Live Players | Brazil: A Country of the Future? - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q6P7jFeNiAk&list=PLEG8Q6Fb-Gi1Vz-zb0Bvbj5zaeg7voiOP---TIMESTAMPS:(00:00) Intro(00:29) Analyzing U.S. Political Challenges(00:50) Bureaucratic Breakdown in America(03:02) Potential for Reform and Presidential Impact(04:11) Comparing U.S. and International Politics(07:43) Left and Right Wing Reform Perspectives(13:17) Corruption and Nonprofit Sector Issues(16:31) SPONSORS: beehiiv | Babbel(19:01) Historical Patterns of U.S. Governance(25:24) Advise for the Next US President(28:37) Economic Decoupling from China(29:03) Nuclear Energy as a National Priority(32:54) SPONSOR: Brave(33:56) Foreign Policy: Russia, Ukraine and the Middle East(44:15) Restructuring the U.S. Air Force(46:07) Special Economic Zones in the U.S.(52:59) Building a Competitive Manufacturing Base(53:36) Wrap

26 Juli 202450min

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