What the hell happened with AGI timelines in 2025?

What the hell happened with AGI timelines in 2025?

In early 2025, after OpenAI put out the first-ever reasoning models — o1 and o3 — short timelines to transformative artificial general intelligence swept the AI world. But then, in the second half of 2025, sentiment swung all the way back in the other direction, with people's forecasts for when AI might really shake up the world blowing out even further than they had been before reasoning models came along.

What the hell happened? Was it just swings in vibes and mood? Confusion? A series of fundamentally unexpected and unpredictable research results?

Host Rob Wiblin has been trying to make sense of it for himself, and here's the best explanation he's come up with so far.

Links to learn more, video, and full transcript: https://80k.info/tl

Chapters:

  • Making sense of the timelines madness in 2025 (00:00:00)
  • The great timelines contraction (00:00:46)
  • Why timelines went back out again (00:02:10)
  • Other longstanding reasons AGI could take a good while (00:11:13)
  • So what's the upshot of all of these updates? (00:14:47)
  • 5 reasons the radical pessimists are still wrong (00:16:54)
  • Even long timelines are short now (00:23:54)

This episode was recorded on January 29, 2026.

Video and audio editing: Dominic Armstrong, Milo McGuire, Luke Monsour, and Simon Monsour
Music: CORBIT
Camera operator: Dominic Armstrong
Coordination, transcripts, and web: Katy Moore

Episoder(333)

Benjamin Todd on what the effective altruism community most needs (80k team chat #4)

Benjamin Todd on what the effective altruism community most needs (80k team chat #4)

In the last '80k team chat' with Ben Todd and Arden Koehler, we discussed what effective altruism is and isn't, and how to argue for it. In this episode we turn now to what the effective altruism comm...

12 Nov 20201h 25min

#87 – Russ Roberts on whether it's more effective to help strangers, or people you know

#87 – Russ Roberts on whether it's more effective to help strangers, or people you know

If you want to make the world a better place, would it be better to help your niece with her SATs, or try to join the State Department to lower the risk that the US and China go to war? People involve...

3 Nov 20201h 49min

How much does a vote matter? (Article)

How much does a vote matter? (Article)

Today’s release is the latest in our series of audio versions of our articles.In this one — How much does a vote matter? — I investigate the two key things that determine the impact of your vote: • ...

29 Okt 202031min

#86 – Hilary Greaves on Pascal's mugging, strong longtermism, and whether existing can be good for us

#86 – Hilary Greaves on Pascal's mugging, strong longtermism, and whether existing can be good for us

Had World War 1 never happened, you might never have existed. It’s very unlikely that the exact chain of events that led to your conception would have happened otherwise — so perhaps you wouldn't have...

21 Okt 20202h 24min

Benjamin Todd on the core of effective altruism and how to argue for it (80k team chat #3)

Benjamin Todd on the core of effective altruism and how to argue for it (80k team chat #3)

Today’s episode is the latest conversation between Arden Koehler, and our CEO, Ben Todd. Ben’s been thinking a lot about effective altruism recently, including what it really is, how it's framed, an...

22 Sep 20201h 24min

Ideas for high impact careers beyond our priority paths (Article)

Ideas for high impact careers beyond our priority paths (Article)

Today’s release is the latest in our series of audio versions of our articles. In this one, we go through some more career options beyond our priority paths that seem promising to us for positively ...

7 Sep 202027min

Benjamin Todd on varieties of longtermism and things 80,000 Hours might be getting wrong (80k team chat #2)

Benjamin Todd on varieties of longtermism and things 80,000 Hours might be getting wrong (80k team chat #2)

Today’s bonus episode is a conversation between Arden Koehler, and our CEO, Ben Todd. Ben’s been doing a bunch of research recently, and we thought it’d be interesting to hear about how he’s current...

1 Sep 202057min

Global issues beyond 80,000 Hours’ current priorities (Article)

Global issues beyond 80,000 Hours’ current priorities (Article)

Today’s release is the latest in our series of audio versions of our articles. In this one, we go through 30 global issues beyond the ones we usually prioritize most highly in our work, and that you...

28 Aug 202032min

Populært innen Fakta

fastlegen
dine-penger-pengeradet
relasjonspodden-med-dora-thorhallsdottir-kjersti-idem
rss-strid-de-norske-borgerkrigene
foreldreradet
mikkels-paskenotter
treningspodden
rss-bisarr-historie
jakt-og-fiskepodden
rss-sunn-okonomi
sinnsyn
tomprat-med-gunnar-tjomlid
rss-kunsten-a-leve
hagespiren-podcast
rss-bak-luftfarten
ukast
fryktlos
hverdagspsyken
rss-mind-body-podden
gravid-uke-for-uke