What the hell happened with AGI timelines in 2025?

What the hell happened with AGI timelines in 2025?

In early 2025, after OpenAI put out the first-ever reasoning models — o1 and o3 — short timelines to transformative artificial general intelligence swept the AI world. But then, in the second half of 2025, sentiment swung all the way back in the other direction, with people's forecasts for when AI might really shake up the world blowing out even further than they had been before reasoning models came along.

What the hell happened? Was it just swings in vibes and mood? Confusion? A series of fundamentally unexpected and unpredictable research results?

Host Rob Wiblin has been trying to make sense of it for himself, and here's the best explanation he's come up with so far.

Links to learn more, video, and full transcript: https://80k.info/tl

Chapters:

  • Making sense of the timelines madness in 2025 (00:00:00)
  • The great timelines contraction (00:00:46)
  • Why timelines went back out again (00:02:10)
  • Other longstanding reasons AGI could take a good while (00:11:13)
  • So what's the upshot of all of these updates? (00:14:47)
  • 5 reasons the radical pessimists are still wrong (00:16:54)
  • Even long timelines are short now (00:23:54)

This episode was recorded on January 29, 2026.

Video and audio editing: Dominic Armstrong, Milo McGuire, Luke Monsour, and Simon Monsour
Music: CORBIT
Camera operator: Dominic Armstrong
Coordination, transcripts, and web: Katy Moore

Episoder(333)

#51 - Martin Gurri on the revolt of the public & crisis of authority in the information age

#51 - Martin Gurri on the revolt of the public & crisis of authority in the information age

Politics in rich countries seems to be going nuts. What's the explanation? Rising inequality? The decline of manufacturing jobs? Excessive immigration? Martin Gurri spent decades as a CIA analyst and...

29 Jan 20192h 31min

#50 - David Denkenberger on how to feed all 8b people through an asteroid/nuclear winter

#50 - David Denkenberger on how to feed all 8b people through an asteroid/nuclear winter

If an asteroid impact or nuclear winter blocked the sun for years, our inability to grow food would result in billions dying of starvation, right? According to Dr David Denkenberger, co-author of Feed...

27 Des 20182h 57min

#49 - Rachel Glennerster on a year's worth of education for 30c & other development 'best buys'

#49 - Rachel Glennerster on a year's worth of education for 30c & other development 'best buys'

If I told you it's possible to deliver an extra year of ideal primary-level education for under $1, would you believe me? Hopefully not - the claim is absurd on its face. But it may be true nonetheles...

20 Des 20181h 35min

#48 - Brian Christian on better living through the wisdom of computer science

#48 - Brian Christian on better living through the wisdom of computer science

Please let us know if we've helped you: Fill out our annual impact survey Ever felt that you were so busy you spent all your time paralysed trying to figure out where to start, and couldn't get much ...

22 Nov 20183h 15min

#47 - Catherine Olsson & Daniel Ziegler on the fast path into high-impact ML engineering roles

#47 - Catherine Olsson & Daniel Ziegler on the fast path into high-impact ML engineering roles

After dropping out of a machine learning PhD at Stanford, Daniel Ziegler needed to decide what to do next. He’d always enjoyed building stuff and wanted to shape the development of AI, so he thought a...

2 Nov 20182h 4min

#46 - Hilary Greaves on moral cluelessness & tackling crucial questions in academia

#46 - Hilary Greaves on moral cluelessness & tackling crucial questions in academia

The barista gives you your coffee and change, and you walk away from the busy line. But you suddenly realise she gave you $1 less than she should have. Do you brush your way past the people now waitin...

23 Okt 20182h 49min

#45 - Tyler Cowen's case for maximising econ growth, stabilising civilization & thinking long-term

#45 - Tyler Cowen's case for maximising econ growth, stabilising civilization & thinking long-term

I've probably spent more time reading Tyler Cowen - Professor of Economics at George Mason University - than any other author. Indeed it's his incredibly popular blog Marginal Revolution that prompted...

17 Okt 20182h 30min

#44 - Paul Christiano on how we'll hand the future off to AI, & solving the alignment problem

#44 - Paul Christiano on how we'll hand the future off to AI, & solving the alignment problem

Paul Christiano is one of the smartest people I know. After our first session produced such great material, we decided to do a second recording, resulting in our longest interview so far. While challe...

2 Okt 20183h 51min

Populært innen Fakta

fastlegen
dine-penger-pengeradet
relasjonspodden-med-dora-thorhallsdottir-kjersti-idem
foreldreradet
treningspodden
rss-strid-de-norske-borgerkrigene
mikkels-paskenotter
rss-bisarr-historie
jakt-og-fiskepodden
sinnsyn
rss-kunsten-a-leve
rss-sunn-okonomi
hverdagspsyken
tomprat-med-gunnar-tjomlid
rss-bak-luftfarten
ukast
fryktlos
gravid-uke-for-uke
lederskap-nhhs-podkast-om-ledelse
rss-kull