The Blind Spot [S2Ep36 audio]
Finding MH37010 Mai 2025

The Blind Spot [S2Ep36 audio]

As we wait for the seabed search for MH370’s wreckage to restart, it’s worth taking the time to reflect about what we’ve learned from the search thus far, and what future scanning will tell us about the plane’s likely fate. Under the principles of Bayesian inference, the more of the seabed is searched without the plane’s wreckage being discovered, the greater the probability becomes that the plane simply isn’t there at all. But there’s an escape hatch to this logic: according to an idea called Cromwell’s Rule, the probability will not change so long as we are 100 percent confidant in the proposition that the plane is somewhere in the ocean. In today’s episode whether such confidence is merited, or whether the widespread refusal to consider an alternative is due to a mental blockage or blind spot. I also discuss my new feature article in Vanity Fair magazine about mounting concerns about cyber attacks against airliners around the world — and now, for the first time, in the United States.



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Episoder(64)

MH370: Where Is It?

MH370: Where Is It?

Malaysia has said that Ocean Infinity can start searching again in November. But where will they look? The prospective search zone is relatively small, constrained by drift modeling, aircraft performa...

16 Sep 26min

"We Found One Plane, We Can Find MH370"

"We Found One Plane, We Can Find MH370"

In the second episode of a two-parter about this June's amazing discovery of a Pan Am DC-4 that lay in 2,000 feet of water off the coast of San Juan, Puerto Rico for 74 years, I talk with Tony Romeo, ...

27 Aug 55min

'We Found an Airliner on the Seabed!'

'We Found an Airliner on the Seabed!'

Finding a missing airliner on the seabed is something that's naturally going to be of great interest to anyone fascinated by the mystery of MH370, and today I’m going to be talking to someone who has ...

9 Aug 48min

In the Firing Line

In the Firing Line

Sid Gandotra, the host of the “Sit Down With Sid” podcast, interviews a lot of people from different corners of MH370 world, including a lot of people who frankly I don’t see eye to eye with. I consid...

25 Jul 1h 27min

New MH370 Hydroacoustic Data!

New MH370 Hydroacoustic Data!

In 2015, French hydroacoustic researcher Dr Jean-Yves Rocher and his team collected data from a network of buoys that had been recording underwater sounds in the southern Indian Ocean for the past yea...

17 Jul 36min

The Search for MH370 is Back On -- AGAIN!

The Search for MH370 is Back On -- AGAIN!

The Malaysia government has extended by one year the no-find no fee deal that it made with Ocean Infinity last March to search for the missing Malaysian airliner. Under the terms of that deal, Ocean I...

30 Jun 7min

The Other Vanished Airliner

The Other Vanished Airliner

There's never been an air accident like MH370, but that doesn't been that we can't learn from cases that share common characteristics. Today we discuss the case of a Peruvian 727 that vanished in the ...

22 Jun 49min

I Respond to the YouTube Video About Me

I Respond to the YouTube Video About Me

I’ve been unflinchingly critical of other people’s videos about MH370, and now the shoe’s on the other foot. An account called Aviation Files has put up a video entitled “MH370: Why It Never Crashed” ...

27 Mai 42min

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