Processing uncertainty in real time

Processing uncertainty in real time

Volatility has returned, and markets are recalibrating risk premia as new sources of uncertainty emerge across oil, inflation expectations, private credit and the AI investment cycle.

In this episode of the Barclays Brief, Ronnie Wexler speaks with Ajay Rajadhyaksha to break down how markets are processing this uncertainty, and the transmission mechanisms that matter most for the medium-term path.

They explore how investors are interpreting elevated oil prices and what sustained higher prices could mean for inflation expectations, as well as why private credit concerns remain slow moving rather than systemic. They also examine the structural tailwinds from AI, where hyperscaler CapEx and breakthrough adoption rates may continue to anchor long run productivity and growth.

As the conversation tracks the market reaction to the escalating conflict in Iran and other recent headline shifts, Ronnie and Ajay focus on the observable indicators and signals shaping the medium-term outlook.

Clients can read more on Barclays Live:

Middle East Escalation Hub

When it rains...

Barclays Equity Factor Insights: March 2026

Takeaways From Anthropic's Enterprise Agent Event

Important Content Disclosures

Important non-Research Content Disclosures

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Episoder(52)

Negative headlines, resilient markets

Negative headlines, resilient markets

Markets have spent much of 2026 confronting higher bond yields, tighter central bank policy and elevated oil prices. By historical standards, that should have been enough to derail growth. Instead, ma...

30 Sep 12min

Trump-Xi: Stability without resolution

Trump-Xi: Stability without resolution

The recent summit between Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping brought greater stability to US-China relations, but little substantive resolution. Continued dialogue and an extension of the trade tr...

29 Sep 12min

Pacing the Frontier: What’s next for AI?

Pacing the Frontier: What’s next for AI?

As AI models become increasingly capable, questions around safety and oversight are growing. Recent cybersecurity incidents have intensified the debate over whether frontier AI development needs to sl...

21 Sep 13min

US Rates: Higher for longer

US Rates: Higher for longer

Markets began 2026 expecting interest rate cuts. Instead, investors have faced a sharp repricing in bond markets, with the US 10-year Treasury yield reaching 5% and growing debate around whether polic...

14 Sep 10min

The Multi-Trillion-Dollar Energy Race

The Multi-Trillion-Dollar Energy Race

Markets are fixating on the billions being invested in AI. But a second massive investment story related to energy is emerging and investors need to pay attention.In this episode of Barclays Brief, ho...

8 Sep 11min

European equities heat up

European equities heat up

European equities have been one of the standout market stories of the year. Despite trade tensions, geopolitical uncertainty and persistent questions about growth, the region has delivered unexpectedl...

1 Sep 11min

Nuclear fusion: Tomorrow's solution to today's problem​

Nuclear fusion: Tomorrow's solution to today's problem​

Nuclear fusion has long been viewed as a transformational energy breakthrough, capable of delivering abundant, zero-carbon at operation energy by recreating the same reaction that powers the sun. Rece...

18 Aug 12min

Japan: Why the world is watching

Japan: Why the world is watching

Little more than a week ago, a rare, coordinated US-Japan intervention to support the yen caught investors’ attention. Coupled with rising expectations of another Bank of Japan (BoJ) rate hike and Pri...

11 Aug 10min

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