Craft Politics9 Jul 2025

What Really Happened in the 2025 Election?

With Hunter Knifton We revisit the 2025 Canadian federal election—not with hot takes, but with hard data. Our guest is Hunter Knifton, the analyst behind the Charting Canada Substack, who’s challenging two of the most commonly accepted narratives about the election. In this episode: 🗳 The myth of the “NDP-to-Conservative switcher”: why it’s not supported by the numbers 📉 Why the collapse of the PPC—not a working-class revolt—may explain Conservative gains in key ridings 👥 Who actually switched votes—and where? A closer look at new voters, older swing voters, and Carney Conservatives 🔄 Why the left didn’t just coalesce around the Liberals—and why the right’s coalition might be more stable than it looks Plus: 🧭 Hunter breaks down his five-part typology of Carney’s voter base—from downtown professionals to rural commuters 🧱 What the suburban and rural wins say about the Liberals’ long-term potential 🔍 Are the Conservatives targeting the wrong voters with their union strategy? And don’t miss: 🔮 Could Carney’s voter coalition outlast the crisis that built it? 🧠 What Pierre Poilievre’s team might need to rethink before the next election 📊 A sneak peek at Hunter’s next analysis: are we entering a permanent two-party system—or was 2025 a one-off? 🔊 Listen now if you want a clearer picture of what actually happened in the last election—and why most of us probably got it wrong.

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