SI396: Markets Look Calm… But Are They? ft. Rob Carver

Today, Rob Carver joins us to reflect on a market environment that appears calm on the surface but feels increasingly fragile underneath. From oil market distortions and muted reactions to geopolitical risk to the steady resilience of equities, the conversation questions whether price action is telling the full story. Rob shares insights from his own performance, including why slower trend signals have recently dominated and why he is running lower risk despite positive returns. The discussion moves into portfolio construction, return stacking, and the growing role of ETFs, alongside a candid look at where complexity adds value in systematic investing and where it does not.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Rob on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Intro & current market backdrop

04:30 - Oil market dislocations and futures vs physical pricing

10:00 - Equities hitting highs despite geopolitical tension

13:30 - ETFs, fees, and structural shifts in investment vehicles

17:00 - Trend following performance update and April results

20:30 - Rob’s year-to-date and 12-month performance breakdown

25:00 - Why slow trend signals outperformed

27:30 - How to evaluate large CTA managers

31:00 - Where PhDs add value in systematic investing

43:00 - Signal weighting, crisis alpha, and portfolio construction

52:00 - Return stacking and diversifying equities

01:06:30 - Managed futures ETFs vs replication strategies

01:18:00 - Final thoughts and wrap-up

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

Denne episoden er hentet fra en åpen RSS-feed og er ikke publisert av Podme. Den kan derfor inneholde annonser.

Episoder(971)

SI420: The Market Might Be More Fragile Than It Looks ft. Cem Karsan

Alan Dunne is joined by Cem Karsan to examine the forces pushing bond yields higher and why he believes markets are becoming increasingly fragile. Cem argues that refinancing pressures, persistent inf...

2 Okt 1h 4min

TTU153: Why Investors Keep Getting Trend Following Wrong ft. Patrick Welton

Niels Kaastrup-Larsen and Alan Dunne are joined by Welton Investment Corporation founder Patrick Welton to explore what four decades in markets have taught him about trading, risk and managing other p...

30 Sep 1h 6min

SI419: What Happens When AI Starts Building the Portfolio ft. Nick Baltas

Alan Dunne is joined by Nick Baltas to discuss a strong period for trend following and what the latest research says about adapting systematic strategies to changing markets. They examine whether vola...

26 Sep 1h 5min

OI24: Why Power Trading Is 10 Times Crazier Than Crypto ft. Cory Paddock

Moritz Seibert is joined by GBE Energy co-founder Cory Paddock for a look inside the unusual world of proprietary power trading. Cory explains how electricity markets combine weather, physics and econ...

23 Sep 59min

SI418: Why Markets Are More Alive Than We Think ft. Richard Brennan

Niels Kaastrup-Larsen and Richard Brennan explore what the science of complex adaptive systems can teach us about markets and trend following. Drawing on research from the Santa Fe Institute, they exa...

19 Sep 1h 15min

IL53: How Bonds Quietly Built the Modern World ft. Robin Wigglesworth

Today we talk with the editor of the Financial Times’ Alphaville blog, Robin Wigglesworth. Robin is the author of A Fabulous Debt - the Epic Story of How Bonds Built the Modern World. He tells the sto...

16 Sep 1h 3min

SI417: What Happens When AI Starts Trading the Markets ft. Rob Carver

Niels Kaastrup-Larsen and Rob Carver discuss a market that feels unusually calm despite growing pressure beneath the surface. They look at rising concerns around government debt and bond yields, recen...

12 Sep 1h 8min

GM107: What If AI Actually Pushes Interest Rates Higher? ft. Matt Klein

Alan Dunne is joined by Matt Klein to discuss whether the excitement around AI is getting ahead of the economic reality. Matt explains why the parallels with the 1990s productivity boom may be mislead...

9 Sep 1h 2min