280: Winter Didn’t Show Up: Why Drought Risk Is Climbing Fast with Gary Lezak

Lauren and Gary break down the weirdest part of this winter: it basically never happened in key areas. With snow totals far behind normal in Colorado and drought already expanding across Nebraska, Colorado, and Wyoming, the conversation gets real about what March tells us about drought trajectory, fire risk, severe weather timing, and the major heat wave expected around early August. Gary explains how the LRC cycle works, why this pattern has been repeating since October, and what producers can do now to plan instead of react. Also, they take a quick detour to roast daylight saving time, because obviously.

Links

Weather 20/20 Dashboard Discount⁠ - https://www.weather2020.com/partner/cattle-usa
Substack - https://weather2020.substack.com/
The Global Predictor App ⁠- ⁠https://www.weather2020.com/global-predictor-mobile-app
Youtube⁠ -https://www.youtube.com/@Weather2020
Follow Gary on X ⁠- https://x.com/glezak
CattleUSA Insurance - https://info.cattleusainsurance.com/l/1102253/2025-06-04/288f5m
⁠CattleUSA Website - https://www.cattleusa.com/
Facebook - https://www.facebook.com/cattleusamedia
Instagram - https://www.instagram.com/cattleusa.media/
Subscribe to our newsletter - https://www.cattleusadrive.com/premium
CattleUSA Media - https://www.cattleusamedia.com/
Lauren’s Instagram - https://www.instagram.com/_laurenmoylan/
Lauren’s Youtube - https://www.youtube.com/@Showboatmediaco
The Next Generation Podcast Website - https://www.thenextgenag.com/

Key Takeaways

• Colorado snow totals are drastically below normal, raising drought and fire risk
• The current March weather setup mirrors the pattern established back in October
• Drought is expanding right now, especially over Nebraska, Colorado, and Wyoming
• Kansas and Iowa are not yet in the expansion zone, but need to be watched closely
• A “wet week” can still mean only average moisture, which may not be enough to reverse drought
• LRC-based forecasting allows producers to plan week-by-week for wet vs. dry stretches
• Severe weather is expected in scheduled windows tied to the recurring pattern
• Freeze/frost risk remains on the radar, especially around April 5–10
• There’s a smaller chance of a late frost/freeze late April into early May
• Major heat wave timing remains on track for early August (first week)
• Heat wave risk becomes serious when it lasts more than 3–5 days
• Proactive planning beats reactive scrambling: hay, grazing plans, shipping options, and risk prep
• Daylight saving time is still stupid and makes data timing worse

Chapters

00:00 Winter that didn’t winter + travel snow story
02:10 Why low snowpack matters for drought and fire season
03:40 The LRC pattern: why March looks like October
05:10 Where drought is expanding right now
06:45 Proactive planning for cattle country
08:10 Severe weather timing and why it repeats
12:40 Last freeze/frost window: April 5–10
14:30 Late frost possibility late April/early May
15:10 Major heat wave timing: early August
16:40 Daylight saving time rant
20:00 Wrap-up + Weather 2020 resources

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