410: Nucleotide diversity is a poor predictor of short-term adaptive potential

Abson KL et al., PNAS - A cross-species synthesis and theory paper showing that simple molecular diversity metrics poorly predict short-term adaptive potential. The authors compiled >2,100 quantitative genetics estimates (evolvability and heritability) across ~193 eukaryotic species and compared them to nucleotide diversity (π) and microsatellite heterozygosity (He). They find nucleotide diversity explains only ~1.1% of interspecific variation in evolvability and that doubling π corresponds to a modest ~11.7% increase in evolvability. Theoretical models indicate this weak relationship is expected when trait variance is shaped by stabilizing selection, mutation rates, and effective population size dynamics. Key terms: nucleotide diversity, evolvability, adaptive potential, conservation genetics, microsatellites.

Study Highlights:
The authors compiled 2,113 evolvability estimates across 193 eukaryotic species and matched these to measures of nucleotide diversity (π) and microsatellite heterozygosity (He). They found no meaningful association between ln(IA) (evolvability) and ln(π): π explained ~1.1% of interspecific variation and doubling π predicts only an ~11.7% increase in evolvability. Microsatellite and nucleotide diversity were uncorrelated across species, and both molecular measures were weak predictors of quantitative genetic variation. Theoretical mutation–selection–drift models show weak associations are expected under stabilizing selection and when VA depends more on mutation rate and selection than on neutral diversity.

Conclusion:
Simple, genome-wide molecular diversity metrics (π, He) are poor predictors of short-term adaptive potential (evolvability); conservation assessments should not rely on these alone and should incorporate trait-based or functionally informed genomic data.

Music:
Enjoy the music based on this article at the end of the episode.

Article title:
Nucleotide diversity is a poor predictor of short-term adaptive potential

First author:
Abson KL

Journal:
PNAS

DOI:
10.1073/pnas.2536181123

Reference:
Abson KL, Zijmers L, Mittell EA, Young EA, Postma E, Eyre-Walker A, Hadfield JD. Nucleotide diversity is a poor predictor of short-term adaptive potential. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2026;123(27):e2536181123. doi:10.1073/pnas.2536181123

License:
This episode is based on an open-access article published under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (CC BY 4.0) – https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

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Episode link: https://basebybase.com/episodes/nucleotide-diversity-poor-predictor-adaptive-potential

QC:
This episode was checked against the original article PDF and publication metadata for the episode release published on 2026-07-08.

QC Scope:
- article metadata and core scientific claims from the narration
- excludes analogies, intro/outro, and music
- transcript coverage: Audited the transcript's coverage of core scientific claims: relationship between π and IA, the π vs He relationship, functional variation (πN/πS), the theoretical basis (stabilizing selection), and conservation implications/policy directions.
- transcript topics: Adaptive potential and evolvability (IA) concept; Nucleotide diversity (π) as predictor of evolvability; Microsatellite diversity (He) and its relation to π and IA; Theoretical mutation–selection...