Is the Future Unknowable? Uncertainty, Free Will, and the Limits of Science

Is the Future Unknowable? Uncertainty, Free Will, and the Limits of Science

What if uncertainty isn't a temporary problem science will eventually solve, but a fundamental feature of reality? Neuroscientist Stuart Firestein joins Michael Shermer to make the case that the universe may be far less deterministic—and the future far less predictable—than we like to imagine.

Firestein and Shermer discuss chaos and complexity, Darwin and randomness, free will, scientific progress, the replication crisis, COVID and the problem of communicating uncertainty, why humans are so bad at probability, and why even enormous amounts of data can fail to predict individual people or events.

Stuart Firestein is a professor of neuroscience at Columbia University and a member of the Santa Fe Institute. He has published over one hundred scientific papers in journals such as Nature, Science, Cell, and Neuron. He is a Guggenheim fellow, a member of the advisory committee for the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation, and an elected fellow of the American Association for the Advancement of Science. His new book is It Could Be Otherwise: Science in the Age of Uncertainty.

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Episoder(642)

Does Consciousness Break the Laws of Physics?

Does Consciousness Break the Laws of Physics?

If we could explain everything happening in your brain, would there still be something left to explain about you? Physicist Avshalom Elitzur thinks so—and argues that accounting for consciousness may ...

22 Sep 46min

Jared Diamond: How Much Can One Person Change History?

Jared Diamond: How Much Can One Person Change History?

Would World War II have happened without Hitler? Would someone else have built Apple without Steve Jobs? Jared Diamond joins Michael Shermer to ask how much history depends on particular people. From ...

15 Sep 1h 29min

Why America Failed to Stop 9/11  |  Gerald Posner & Michael Shermer

Why America Failed to Stop 9/11 | Gerald Posner & Michael Shermer

How did 19 hijackers evade the world's most advanced intelligence apparatus despite years of warnings? Twenty-five years after 9/11, journalist Gerald Posner joins Michael Shermer to explain the secur...

11 Sep 42min

Why Be Honest When Cheating Pays?

Why Be Honest When Cheating Pays?

Most of us think of ourselves as honest. But would we still tell the truth if lying got us what we wanted—and nobody would ever find out? Philosopher Christian Miller joins Michael Shermer to discuss ...

9 Sep 1h 45min

Why We Want to Believe in Aliens and Why We Still Haven't Found Them

Why We Want to Believe in Aliens and Why We Still Haven't Found Them

UFOs were once the stuff of tabloids and conspiracy theories. Today they're the subject of congressional hearings, Pentagon investigations, mainstream news coverage, and a new wave of claims about gov...

25 Aug 1h 13min

Is There a Second Arrow of Time? A New Law of Evolution, Information, and Complexity

Is There a Second Arrow of Time? A New Law of Evolution, Information, and Complexity

Why does the universe produce ever more elaborate forms, from atoms and minerals to cells, organisms, brains, technology, and civilization? The familiar laws of physics can explain much of what happen...

18 Aug 1h 18min

Why Good People Disagree About Right and Wrong

Why Good People Disagree About Right and Wrong

Why do reasonable people disagree so strongly about right and wrong? And why are we so quick to assume that people on the other side of a moral or political issue are irrational, selfish, ignorant, or...

11 Aug 1h 57min

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