Iran Conflict Brief: Jan Stuart on What a US Diesel Export Ban Would Mean

Seven months into the largest oil supply disruption in history, there's still no resolution in sight. This week, on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly, US and Iranian officials held their first indirect talks since the Memorandum of Understanding collapsed in July—but neither side appears ready for concessions.

Energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz remain contested and hard to track. A US blockade has pushed Iranian crude exports close to zero, while naval escorts and dark transits near the Omani coast have allowed a partial, volatile recovery in flows from Arab Gulf states—still well below pre-war levels. Attacks on shipping continue, and the Houthis have opened a new front against Saudi Arabia, choking flows through the Bab al-Mandab and striking key infrastructure like the East-West pipeline.

Brent crude sits at $105​ a barrel, below April's $126 peak, but that headline number masks just how tight markets really are: diesel ​i​s over $6.50 per gallon in the US, up 85% from pre-war levels​; tanker rates​ are 20 times normal; and markets are visibly scrambling for crude. Meanwhile Republican senators from US farm states are pushing for a diesel export ban, and the Trump administration is reportedly considering it over objections from members of his cabinet.

How much crude is actually flowing through the Strait of Hormuz. Why is diesel the most acute pressure point in oil markets? What would a US diesel export ban mean? And why have tanker rates gone stratospheric?

T​oday on the Iran Conflict Brief, ​D​aniel Sternoff talks with Jan Stuart, global energy strategist at Piper Sandler. Jan has built leading energy franchises at Credit Suisse, Macquarie, and UBS, was a journalist in the 1990s, and began his career at the International Energy Agency in Paris.

Credits: Hosted by Jason Bordoff, Bill Loveless, and Daniel Sternoff. Produced by Mary Catherine O'Connor, Dara Diamond, Doug Halsey, and Kyu Lee. Engineering by Gregory Vilfranc.