#78 – Danny Hernandez on forecasting and the drivers of AI progress

#78 – Danny Hernandez on forecasting and the drivers of AI progress

Companies use about 300,000 times more computation training the best AI systems today than they did in 2012 and algorithmic innovations have also made them 25 times more efficient at the same tasks.

These are the headline results of two recent papers — AI and Compute and AI and Efficiency — from the Foresight Team at OpenAI. In today's episode I spoke with one of the authors, Danny Hernandez, who joined OpenAI after helping develop better forecasting methods at Twitch and Open Philanthropy.

Danny and I talk about how to understand his team's results and what they mean (and don't mean) for how we should think about progress in AI going forward.

Links to learn more, summary and full transcript.

Debates around the future of AI can sometimes be pretty abstract and theoretical. Danny hopes that providing rigorous measurements of some of the inputs to AI progress so far can help us better understand what causes that progress, as well as ground debates about the future of AI in a better shared understanding of the field.

If this research sounds appealing, you might be interested in applying to join OpenAI's Foresight team — they're currently hiring research engineers.

In the interview, Danny and I (Arden Koehler) also discuss a range of other topics, including:
• The question of which experts to believe
• Danny's journey to working at OpenAI
• The usefulness of "decision boundaries"
• The importance of Moore's law for people who care about the long-term future
• What OpenAI's Foresight Team's findings might imply for policy
• The question whether progress in the performance of AI systems is linear
• The safety teams at OpenAI and who they're looking to hire
• One idea for finding someone to guide your learning
• The importance of hardware expertise for making a positive impact

Chapters:

  • Rob’s intro (00:00:00)
  • The interview begins (00:01:29)
  • Forecasting (00:07:11)
  • Improving the public conversation around AI (00:14:41)
  • Danny’s path to OpenAI (00:24:08)
  • Calibration training (00:27:18)
  • AI and Compute (00:45:22)
  • AI and Efficiency (01:09:22)
  • Safety teams at OpenAI (01:39:03)
  • Careers (01:49:46)
  • AI hardware as a possible path to impact (01:55:57)
  • Triggers for people’s major decisions (02:08:44)

Producer: Keiran Harris
Audio mastering: Ben Cordell
Transcriptions: Zakee Ulhaq

Episoder(333)

#12 - Beth Cameron works to stop you dying in a pandemic. Here’s what keeps her up at night.

#12 - Beth Cameron works to stop you dying in a pandemic. Here’s what keeps her up at night.

“When you're in the middle of a crisis and you have to ask for money, you're already too late.” That’s Dr Beth Cameron, who leads Global Biological Policy and Programs at the Nuclear Threat Initiative...

25 Okt 20171h 45min

#11 - Spencer Greenberg on speeding up social science 10-fold & why plenty of startups cause harm

#11 - Spencer Greenberg on speeding up social science 10-fold & why plenty of startups cause harm

Do most meat eaters think it’s wrong to hurt animals? Do Americans think climate change is likely to cause human extinction? What is the best, state-of-the-art therapy for depression? How can we make ...

17 Okt 20171h 29min

#10 - Nick Beckstead on how to spend billions of dollars preventing human extinction

#10 - Nick Beckstead on how to spend billions of dollars preventing human extinction

What if you were in a position to give away billions of dollars to improve the world? What would you do with it? This is the problem facing Program Officers at the Open Philanthropy Project - people l...

11 Okt 20171h 51min

#9 - Christine Peterson on how insecure computers could lead to global disaster, and how to fix it

#9 - Christine Peterson on how insecure computers could lead to global disaster, and how to fix it

Take a trip to Silicon Valley in the 70s and 80s, when going to space sounded like a good way to get around environmental limits, people started cryogenically freezing themselves, and nanotechnology l...

4 Okt 20171h 45min

#8 - Lewis Bollard on how to end factory farming in our lifetimes

#8 - Lewis Bollard on how to end factory farming in our lifetimes

Every year tens of billions of animals are raised in terrible conditions in factory farms before being killed for human consumption. Over the last two years Lewis Bollard – Project Officer for Farm An...

27 Sep 20173h 16min

#7 - Julia Galef on making humanity more rational, what EA does wrong, and why Twitter isn’t all bad

#7 - Julia Galef on making humanity more rational, what EA does wrong, and why Twitter isn’t all bad

The scientific revolution in the 16th century was one of the biggest societal shifts in human history, driven by the discovery of new and better methods of figuring out who was right and who was wrong...

13 Sep 20171h 14min

#6 - Toby Ord on why the long-term future matters more than anything else & what to do about it

#6 - Toby Ord on why the long-term future matters more than anything else & what to do about it

Of all the people whose well-being we should care about, only a small fraction are alive today. The rest are members of future generations who are yet to exist. Whether they’ll be born into a world th...

6 Sep 20172h 8min

#5 - Alex Gordon-Brown on how to donate millions in your 20s working in quantitative trading

#5 - Alex Gordon-Brown on how to donate millions in your 20s working in quantitative trading

Quantitative financial trading is one of the highest paying parts of the world’s highest paying industry. 25 to 30 year olds with outstanding maths skills can earn millions a year in an obscure set of...

28 Aug 20171h 45min

Populært innen Fakta

fastlegen
dine-penger-pengeradet
relasjonspodden-med-dora-thorhallsdottir-kjersti-idem
rss-strid-de-norske-borgerkrigene
foreldreradet
mikkels-paskenotter
treningspodden
rss-bisarr-historie
jakt-og-fiskepodden
rss-sunn-okonomi
sinnsyn
tomprat-med-gunnar-tjomlid
rss-kunsten-a-leve
hagespiren-podcast
rss-bak-luftfarten
ukast
fryktlos
hverdagspsyken
rss-mind-body-podden
gravid-uke-for-uke