Ep 162: Steven Pinker’s ”Rationality” Chapter 7 ”Hits and False Alarms” Part 1
ToKCast2 Nov 2022

Ep 162: Steven Pinker’s ”Rationality” Chapter 7 ”Hits and False Alarms” Part 1

Here we consider whether when collecting data we are able to distinguish between the signal (hits) and noise (false alarms). I make the case the author early on is doing a good job of explaining "random error" when conducting experiments. However, broadly speaking this is an issue of increasing precision in our measurements. No mention seems to be made, crucially, in understanding the possibility of systematic error (a problem for accuracy). How do precision and accuracy differ? Why won't repeating our experiments and collecting more data help guard against certain kinds of errors? All this and more discussed in this episode.

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Episoder(270)

Ep 270: The Gradient Descent into Doom.

Ep 270: The Gradient Descent into Doom.

A spontaneous set of comments on the ongoing AI scare of 2026. What's happening in the media right now, on social media, in culture and at the highest levels of government. Why the pessimism and catas...

22 Sep 1h 43min

Ep 269: The Quantum Observer Effect?

Ep 269: The Quantum Observer Effect?

Youtuber Warren Smith of https://www.youtube.com/@SecretScholars made some remarks about the double slit experiment. I assess his claims.

22 Sep 15min

Ep 268: AGI has arrived podcast

Ep 268: AGI has arrived podcast

Today CEO of the world's most valuable company, Nvidia, Jensen Huang, announced "AGI has arrived". https://x.com/JensenHuang/status/2096700264569090384?s=20 Some reflections on all that.

7 Sep 34min

Ep 267: The Orthogonality Thesis is Moral Relativism. (Response to Sam Harris on AI).

Ep 267: The Orthogonality Thesis is Moral Relativism. (Response to Sam Harris on AI).

This is in response to episode 489 of Sam Harris' "Making Sense" podcast - in a section only available via subscription. I have clipped the approximately 60 seconds worth of material I am narrowly res...

26 Aug 27min

Ep 266: Facts, Fantasy and Critical Thinking

Ep 266: Facts, Fantasy and Critical Thinking

A analysis in Popperian style of Candace Owens' "mode" of debate and discussion, approach to evidence and thinking and a comparison to the more mainstream evaluations of this debate.

20 Aug 32min

Ep 265: David Deutsch's "The Fabric of Reality" Chapter 14 "The Ends of the Universe" Part 2 The Omega Point

Ep 265: David Deutsch's "The Fabric of Reality" Chapter 14 "The Ends of the Universe" Part 2 The Omega Point

All about the distant future. What does cosmology tell us about the fate of the universe, life and intelligence in some ultimate sense? Frank Tipler's The Omega Point Theory is the primary focus, but ...

15 Aug 1h 28min

Ep 264: David Deutsch's "The Fabric of Reality" Chapter 14 "The Ends of the Universe" Part 1

Ep 264: David Deutsch's "The Fabric of Reality" Chapter 14 "The Ends of the Universe" Part 1

What do our best explanations tell us about the ultimate ends of the universe? What is the difference between forming a world view about any one of the four strands (evolution, epistemology, quantum p...

30 Jul 44min

Ep 263: David Deutsch's "The Fabric of Reality" Chapter 13 "The Four Strands" Part 4 - and final.

Ep 263: David Deutsch's "The Fabric of Reality" Chapter 13 "The Four Strands" Part 4 - and final.

How do the Four Strands of the Fabric of Reality - Quantum Physics, Computation, Epistemology and Evolution by Natural Selection hold together? What does taking them each seriously and all of them tog...

4 Jul 1h 30min

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