China, Tesla, and the Electric Tech Stack Revolution

In this episode, Noah Smith recently went on the Break the Rules podcast, hosted by Lev Polyakov, for a debate with Auron MacIntyre. They discuss the societal implications of AI development, focusing on Trump's relationships with tech leaders, AI systems like Stargate, surveillance, economic productivity, regulatory measures, geopolitical competition, and immigrant labor's role in technological advancements. – RECOMMENDED PODCAST: 🎙️Break The Rules - Hosted by Lev Polyakov, Break The Rules brings different online & offline circles together at a time of social atomization in order to break echo-chambers. Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/break-the-rules/id1543233584 Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/0yovF9Vo8n1fF1DGlMuWBh YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@breakth3rules/ – SPONSORS: NetSuite More than 41,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. Download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine learning: https://netsuite.com/102 Found  Found provides small business owners tools to track expenses, calculate taxes, manage cashflow, send invoices and more. Open a Found account for free at https://found.com/econ102 AdQuick The easiest way to book out-of-home ads (like billboards, vehicle wraps, and airport displays) the same way you would order an Uber. Ready to get your brand the attention it deserves? Visit https://adquick.com/ today to start reaching your customers in the real world. Incogni Take your personal data back with Incogni! Use code ECON102 at the link below and get 60% off an annual plan: https://incogni.com/econ102 – SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: Econ102@Turpentine.co – FOLLOW ON X: @LevPo @AuronMacintyre @noahpinion @eriktorenberg @turpentinemedia – RECOMMENDED IN THIS EPISODE: Trump Liberty or Technocracy? Auron Macintyre & Noah Smith: https://www.youtube.com/live/pH_nuk94FQk?si=D-5qvd74cpBSjwfm The Total State: How Liberal Democracies Become Tyrannies: https://www.amazon.com/dp/1684515580ref_=cm_sw_r_cp_ud_dp_5Q231Q8CQ65W8Z0PTQ3H Noahpinion: https://www.noahpinion.blog/  – TAKEAWAYS: AI Development and Trump Administration: The discussion examines Donald Trump's meetings with tech leaders and the "Stargate" AI system, raising questions about whether the administration will embrace technocratic control systems or maintain populist principles. Labor Market Effects: Noah points out that despite previous AI advances, we've seen wage increases for lower-skilled workers and movement toward higher-skilled jobs, challenging assumptions about AI's negative impact on employment. Oligarchic Influences: Auron describes the current political landscape as an "age of oligarchy" where different factions of wealthy interests compete for influence, with Trump balancing populist rhetoric against tech billionaire support. Civilization Complexity Theory: Auron references Joseph Tainter's theory on how increasing complexity with diminishing returns contributes to civilizational collapse, suggesting AI may be an attempt to escape these human limitations. Immigration Comparisons: Noah argues that despite current debates about immigration, America faces fewer ethnic tensions than 100 years ago, providing historical perspective on current social challenges.

6 Mar 39min

This week, we're sharing Richard Hanania and Noah Smith’s live conversation from Feb 6th,  recorded for their Substack audiences. This is the first time the two writers have met, and in this conversation they covered fundamental differences between the American right and left movements. They also discuss Elon Musk's positioning as the future Republican kingmaker and Noah's theory that Musk envisions coordinating a global "anti-woke alliance" with Putin and Xi. – SPONSORS: NetSuite More than 41,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. Download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine learning: https://netsuite.com/102 Found  Found provides small business owners tools to track expenses, calculate taxes, manage cashflow, send invoices and more. Open a Found account for free at https://found.com/econ102 AdQuick The easiest way to book out-of-home ads (like billboards, vehicle wraps, and airport displays) the same way you would order an Uber. Ready to get your brand the attention it deserves? Visit https://adquick.com/ today to start reaching your customers in the real world. Incogni Take your personal data back with Incogni! Use code ECON102 at the link below and get 60% off an annual plan: https://incogni.com/econ102 – SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: Econ102@Turpentine.co – FOLLOW ON X: @RichardHanania @noahpinion @eriktorenberg @turpentinemedia – RECOMMENDED IN THIS EPISODE: Richard Hanania’s Newsletter: https://www.richardhanania.com/  Noahpinion: https://www.noahpinion.blog/  Too many Americans still fear the future: https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/too-many-americans-still-fear-the  The chaos has arrived: https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/the-chaos-has-arrived  Trump's Executive Branch Revolution: https://www.richardhanania.com/p/trumps-executive-branch-revolution  Trump impose large tariffs in first year?: https://manifold.markets/RichardHanania/trump-impose-large-tariffs-in-first?play=false  – TAKEAWAYS: Richard notes Trump's first administration achieved success with Middle East normalization agreements. Noah compares Ukraine war to Finland's Winter War - Ukraine may lose territory but maintain independence. Richard questions whether taking NATO membership off the table could have prevented the Ukraine conflict. Right-wing politics revolves around personal loyalty while left-wing politics centers on ideological purity. Elon Musk is positioning himself as the kingmaker for the post-Trump Republican party. Richard supports technological progress, believing future generations should benefit from AI and genetic engineering. Noah argues societies that resist technological progress inevitably get left behind in global competition. Richard expresses skepticism about Democrats' ability to reform, citing Obama's failed education reform efforts. Noah predicts Democrats won't move away from "institutional wokeness" until the 2030s.

28 Feb 1h 17min

This week Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg discuss three key areas where Democrats need to rethink their strategy: embracing anti-inflation policies similar to the Clinton era, focusing on genuine threats to democracy rather than partisan hobby horses, and abandoning progressive language policing that alienates voters. Noah also talks about how Elon Musk has transformed Republican effectiveness by bringing entrepreneurial talent to politics, arguing that Democrats need to stop alienating tech entrepreneurs and instead recruit similar talent to their side. – SPONSORS: NetSuite More than 41,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. Download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine learning: https://netsuite.com/102 AdQuick The easiest way to book out-of-home ads (like billboards, vehicle wraps, and airport displays) the same way you would order an Uber. Ready to get your brand the attention it deserves? Visit https://adquick.com/ today to start reaching your customers in the real world. Found  Found provides small business owners tools to track expenses, calculate taxes, manage cashflow, send invoices and more. Open a Found account for free at https://found.com/econ102 Incogni Take your personal data back with Incogni! Use code ECON102 at the link below and get 60% off an annual plan: https://incogni.com/econ102 – SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: Econ102@Turpentine.co – FOLLOW ON X: @noahpinion @eriktorenberg @turpentinemedia – RECOMMENDED PODCAST: 🎙️ Second Opinion Join Christina Farr, Ash Zenooz and Luba Greenwood as they bring influential entrepreneurs, experts and investors into the ring for candid conversations at the frontlines of healthcare and digital health every week. Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/0A8NwQE976s32zdBbZw6bv  Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/second-opinion-with-christina-farr-ash-zenooz-md-luba/id1759267211  YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@SecondOpinionwithChristinaFarr – TAKEAWAYS: Democrats can capitalize on the mistakes of their opponents, particularly regarding economic policies. The perception of inflation is a significant issue for voters, and Democrats need to address it effectively. Defending democracy is crucial, but Democrats must focus on the actual threats rather than long-term issues like gerrymandering. The Democratic Party needs to reassess its progressive ideals and messaging to resonate with a broader audience. Cultural shifts, such as language policing, can alienate potential supporters for the Democratic Party. The entrepreneurial class holds significant power and talent that Democrats should engage with. Democrats need to communicate a patriotic vision of America to counter negative narratives. The trans movement is distinct from other civil rights movements and requires a nuanced approach. A clear and assertive stance on America's founding principles can help Democrats regain credibility. Young people are increasingly forming situationships instead of traditional relationships. The Inflation Reduction Act was more about political maneuvering than actual inflation reduction. Biden's economic policies have effectively reduced inflation through various measures. Democracy is threatened not just by election denial but by the erosion of checks and balances. A new economic paradigm is needed that addresses modern challenges and national security. Deregulation is essential for economic growth and should be prioritized. The bureaucratic model in Japan could offer insights for improving U.S. governance. Elon Musk's approach to government may be influenced by right-wing media rather than policy experts. A pluralistic social media ecosystem is emerging as people seek alternatives to traditional platforms. There is potential for a smarter Democratic party in response to the changing political landscape.

26 Feb 1h 2min

In this episode, Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg discuss how Ukraine has proven surprisingly resilient throughout the war by maintaining its economy and developing significant domestic drone manufacturing capabilities. He argues that "Europe is not toothless" despite America's shifting role, detailing how Europe collectively has greater manufacturing capacity than America and identifying three key reforms Europe needs: deregulating software, building energy infrastructure, and removing internal trade barriers. – SPONSORS: NetSuite More than 41,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. Download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine learning: https://netsuite.com/102 AdQuick The easiest way to book out-of-home ads (like billboards, vehicle wraps, and airport displays) the same way you would order an Uber. Ready to get your brand the attention it deserves? Visit https://adquick.com/ today to start reaching your customers in the real world. Found  Found provides small business owners tools to track expenses, calculate taxes, manage cashflow, send invoices and more. Open a Found account for free at https://found.com/econ102 Incogni Take your personal data back with Incogni! Use code ECON102 at the link below and get 60% off an annual plan: https://incogni.com/econ102 – SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: Econ102@Turpentine.co – FOLLOW ON X: @noahpinion @eriktorenberg @turpentinemedia – RECOMMENDED IN THIS EPISODE: Noahpinion: It’s time for Europe to stand up https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/its-time-for-europe-to-stand-up Book: Old Man’s War by John Scalzi https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/36510196-old-man-s-war – RECOMMENDED PODCAST: 🎙️Check out Modern Relationships, where Erik Torenberg interviews tech power couples and leading thinkers to explore how ambitious people actually make partnerships work. This season's guests include: Delian Asparouhov & Nadia Asparouhova, Kristen Berman & Phil Levin, Rob Henderson, and Liv Boeree & Igor Kurganov. Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/id1786227593  Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/5hJzs0gDg6lRT6r10mdpVg  YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@ModernRelationshipsPod  – TAKEAWAYS Ukraine has shown resilience in sustaining its war efforts. US aid to Ukraine is becoming less crucial over time. Turkey's support for Ukraine is significant. Europe has substantial manufacturing capacity for military needs. Historical patterns of expansionism are relevant to current geopolitics. Putin's expansionist ambitions can be compared to Louis XIV's. Europe's aging population poses challenges for military readiness. Russia's reliance on China complicates its geopolitical stance. Economic reforms are crucial for Europe's resilience, including deregulation of the software industry. Internal trade barriers hinder European economic integration. America's role as a protector of Europe is diminishing.

19 Feb 55min

This week, we’re bringing you an episode from the How to Money podcast, hosted by Joel Larsgaard and Matt Altmix, with special guest Noah Smith. Together, they dive into a range of topics, including the impact of tariffs, Substack’s revolutionary media model, and Noah’s unique economic philosophy. Tune in for insights on the escalating national debt, the baby bust, and the rising costs of U.S. healthcare. Noah also offers solutions, with a focus on boosting productivity and strategic immigration. Plus, don’t miss their take on Argentina’s dramatic economic decisions! -- 🙏 Help shape our show by taking our quick listener survey at https://bit.ly/TurpentinePulse. -- RECOMMENDED PODCAST: Check out How To Money Podcast on: Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/how-to-money/id1337718773 Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/6i5Cau3GShqOxHkSRT5TjL iHeart: https://www.iheart.com/podcast/1119-how-to-money-30166328/ -- Highlights from the Episode: (for more head to https://www.howtomoney.com/tariffs-doge-and-your-money-w-noahpinion/) Trump's approach to tariffs appears to be influenced by stock market reactions. The main spending pressures come from healthcare programs (Medicare and Medicaid). Declining birth rates (around 1.5-1.6 children per woman in developed countries) pose significant economic challenges. Healthcare costs are primarily driven by providers such as hospitals, doctors, equipment, and pharma, while insurance companies, operating on low profit margins, mainly serve as cost pass-throughs, with recent slowdowns in cost growth potentially easing budget pressures. Technological advances in AI, solar, and batteries could drive future growth. President Milei's economic reforms, though initially painful, are showing positive results. -- SPONSORS: NetSuite More than 41,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. Download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine learning: https://netsuite.com/102 Found Found provides small business owners tools to track expenses, calculate taxes, manage cashflow, send invoices and more. Open a Found account for free at https://found.com/econ102. AdQuick The easiest way to book out-of-home ads (like billboards, vehicle wraps, and airport displays) the same way you would order an Uber. Ready to get your brand the attention it deserves? Visit https://adquick.com/ today to start reaching your customers in the real world.  Incogni Take your personal data back with Incogni! Use code ECON102 at the link below and get 60% off an annual plan: http://incogni.com/econ102 -- SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: Econ102@Turpentine.co -- FOLLOW ON X: @HowToMoneyPod @HowToMoneyJoel @HowToMoneyMatt @noahpinion @eriktorenberg @turpentinemedia -- RECOMMENDED IN THIS EPISODE: Noahpinion: https://www.noahpinion.blog/ How To Money: https://www.howtomoney.com/ Tariffs, DOGE, and Your Money w/ Noahpinion – Episode 944: https://www.howtomoney.com/tariffs-doge-and-your-money-w-noahpinion/

14 Feb 1h 3min

This week, Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg talk about DOGE, Elon Musk's initiative to reform government spending, and explore why it might be more about ideology than efficiency. Noah talks about how he would fix the US debt beyond simply cutting waste. They also cover the future of major programs like Medicaid ($804B/year), the trade-offs between inflation and austerity, and how conservatives might reshape federal institutions despite education polarization. Plus: why comparing government efficiency to Twitter's headcount reduction isn't as straightforward as it seems. -- 🙏 Help shape our show by taking our quick listener survey at https://bit.ly/TurpentinePulse. -- Highlights from the Episode: Noah argues that while Doge (Department of Government Efficiency) is publicly presented as a cost-cutting initiative, it's primarily an ideological project aimed at reducing "woke" initiatives in government. As zero-interest debt gets rolled over at higher rates (around 4%), interest costs are reaching historic highs as a percentage of GDP. Austerity measures will likely involve difficult choices for the middle class. Healthcare spending in the U.S. is disproportionately high compared to other wealthy nations. Government efficiency is harder to measure than corporate efficiency due to its multiple, often conflicting objectives, the influence of democratic processes, and congressional oversight, which complicates decision-making about program value. -- SPONSORS: NetSuite More than 41,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. Download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine learning: https://netsuite.com/102 Found Found provides small business owners tools to track expenses, calculate taxes, manage cashflow, send invoices and more. Open a Found account for free at https://found.com/econ102. AdQuick The easiest way to book out-of-home ads (like billboards, vehicle wraps, and airport displays) the same way you would order an Uber. Ready to get your brand the attention it deserves? Visit https://adquick.com/ today to start reaching your customers in the real world.  -- SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: Econ102@Turpentine.co -- FOLLOW ON X: @noahpinion @eriktorenberg @turpentinemedia -- RECOMMENDED IN THIS EPISODE: Noahpinion: https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/what-i-think-doge-is-really-up-to

12 Feb 56min

This week, Noah Smith and Stripe CEO Patrick Collison recorded a live conversation on Substack covering topics such as American technological leadership, global competition, industrial policy, foreign direct investment, post-financial crisis productivity trends, US financial system advantages, progressive policies, the middle class, tariffs, immigration, technological advancements like humanoid robots, Gen Z’s well-being, and key policy recommendations for economic and social progress. This conversation first aired in Noah's substack Noahpinion, so be sure to subscribe if you aren't already. -- 🙏 Help shape our show by taking our quick listener survey at https://bit.ly/TurpentinePulse. -- Highlights from the Episode: (for more head to https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/patrick-collison-interview-at-least) The U.S. has maintained its technological edge relative to most developed nations, particularly pulling ahead of Europe, Japan, and South Korea. A key U.S. advantage is its diverse financing system - about 80% of U.S. commercial lending is non-bank lending, compared to only 20% in the UK. The U.S. benefits from a large, unified domestic market, further strengthened by continued immigration, which attracts investment and fosters clustering effects, especially in sectors like software. There are concerns about Gen Z's reported lower life satisfaction and mental health challenges. Replacing NEPA with administrative review (similar to Japan's system). -- SPONSORS: NetSuite More than 41,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. Download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine learning: https://netsuite.com/102 Notion 📝Notion offers powerful workflow and automation templates, perfect for streamlining processes and laying the groundwork for AI-driven automation. With Notion AI, you can search across thousands of documents from various platforms, generating highly relevant analysis and content tailored just for you - try it for free at https://notion.com/upstreampod Found Found provides small business owners tools to track expenses, calculate taxes, manage cashflow, send invoices and more. Open a Found account for free at https://found.com/econ102. AdQuick The easiest way to book out-of-home ads (like billboards, vehicle wraps, and airport displays) the same way you would order an Uber. Ready to get your brand the attention it deserves? Visit https://adquick.com/ today to start reaching your customers in the real world.  -- SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: Econ102@Turpentine.co -- FOLLOW ON X: @patrickc @noahpinion @eriktorenberg @turpentinemedia -- RECOMMENDED IN THIS EPISODE: Noahpinion: https://www.noahpinion.blog/ Patrick Collison interview + at least five interesting things: https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/patrick-collison-interview-at-least Stripe: https://stripe.com/

7 Feb 49min

In this week’s episode of Econ 102, Noah Smith, with special guest Nathan Labenz (host of AI podcast The Cognitive Revolution) breaks down the current landscape of U.S.-China relations and how once-allies became rivals under Xi Jinping's aggressive strategies. While China shows growing AI capabilities like DeepSeek, Smith emphasizes that the real concern isn't about AI models but rather military applications like autonomous drones and precision weapons, suggesting that the next decade represents a critical period for managing tensions and establishing deterrence. -- 🙏 Help shape our show by taking our quick listener survey at https://bit.ly/TurpentinePulse. -- RECOMMENDED PODCAST: Check out Nathan Labenz's podcast The Cognitive Revolution Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-cognitive-revolution-ai-builders-researchers-and/id1669813431 Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/6yHyok3M3BjqzR0VB5MSyk YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@CognitiveRevolutionPodcast/ -- Highlights from the Episode: The US and China were largely de facto allies throughout the 20th century, except for brief periods like the Korean War. Xi Jinping's "great changes unseen in a century" doctrine signals intent to challenge US-led global order. US chip export controls have been effective at limiting China's advanced chip manufacturing. Military technology prioritizes maintaining a technological edge in precision weapons and autonomous systems, with conventional deterrence still key despite nuclear capabilities, while chip controls focus on preserving advantages in military applications over civilian technology. Concerns about AI competition include skepticism over maintaining US "AI supremacy," the potential difficulty in containing AI capabilities like those of DeepSeek, and the risk that an aggressive approach could escalate conflict. -- SPONSORS: NetSuite More than 41,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. Download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine learning: https://netsuite.com/102 Found Found provides small business owners tools to track expenses, calculate taxes, manage cashflow, send invoices and more. Open a Found account for free at https://found.com/econ102. AdQuick The easiest way to book out-of-home ads (like billboards, vehicle wraps, and airport displays) the same way you would order an Uber. Ready to get your brand the attention it deserves? Visit https://adquick.com/ today to start reaching your customers in the real world.  -- SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: Econ102@Turpentine.co -- FOLLOW ON X: @labenz @noahpinion @eriktorenberg @turpentinemedia -- RECOMMENDED IN THIS EPISODE: Noahpinion: https://www.noahpinion.blog/ Dwarkesh podcast with Sarah Paine https://youtu.be/fx6fakjQBdo?si=FR4ZGTGWzXsO4__E Book: Rush Doshi, The Long Game https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/52617647-the-long-game Book: John Mearsheimer Conventional Deterrence https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/224128.Conventional_Deterrence Noahpinion essay: Simple Lessons from China's Big AI Breakthrough https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/some-simple-lessons-from-chinas-big Noahpinion Essay: The Elemental Foe https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/the-elemental-foe?utm_source=publication-search

5 Feb 1h 5min