U.S. 🧀 Dairy Exports: Strong Cheese, Soaring Butterfat — But Trouble in Milk Powders | Ep 3

🔍 Summary:
In this episode, we break down the mixed signals in U.S. dairy exports for February 2025. While cheese shipments hit a February record and butterfat exports soared 236%, overall exports declined 5% due to a sharp drop in milk powder sales. We explore what’s driving the divergence between value-added growth and commodity volatility — and what it means for pricing, market access, and future strategy in key export markets.

📈 Zenith Actionable Insights for Dairy Strategists & Exporters:

✔️ Monitor price elasticity thresholds — WPC80+ pricing is nearing historic resistance points. Sustained elevation risks long-term erosion of demand unless offset by clear functional or nutritional premiums.

✔️ Double down on price-competitive butter exports — as long as the U.S. maintains a supply surplus and global prices remain elevated, butterfat will be a growth lever. Watch tariff developments closely.

✔️ Push cheese into growth regions — Korea, Australia, and MENA are outperforming. Tactical investment in channel partners and tailored SKUs can consolidate these gains.

✔️ Adapt NFDM/SMP strategy in Southeast Asia — rebalancing pricing strategy or exploring formulation reformulations may be key to restoring competitiveness, especially in high-volume buyers like the Philippines and Indonesia.

✔️ Prepare contingency scenarios for tariff disruptions — particularly regarding China’s evolving position on Chapter 4 exemptions and potential retaliation patterns.

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