Dwarkesh and Noah Smith on AGI and the Economy

Fresh off the announcement of his move from Shopify to a16z, Alex Danco joins TBPN to talk about the “trade deal” that brought him here and his mission to make the firm’s written content truly world class.He discusses why he believes writing still matters in the age of AI, how great prose can act as “power transfer technology” for founders, and why he’s betting on the overlooked art of speechwriting. Alex also reflects on his years as a founder, investor, and longtime blogger, and shares the formats he’s most excited to explore, from deal memos to launch speeches. Timecodes: 0:00 Joining a16z0:41 The Power of Writing & Speechwriting2:45 Reflections on Blogging & Communication5:10 Writing as Power Transfer Technology6:46 Formats & Content at a16z8:09 The Underrated Art of Speechwriting11:21 The Evolution of Blogging & Audience12:23 Looking Forward: Brand & Legacy Resources:Find Alex on X: https://x.com/Alex_DancoWatch TBPN: https://www.tbpn.com/Follow TBPN on X: https://x.com/tbpn Stay Updated: Let us know what you think: https://ratethispodcast.com/a16zFind a16z on Twitter: https://twitter.com/a16zFind a16z on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/a16zSubscribe on your favorite podcast app: https://a16z.simplecast.com/Follow our host: https://x.com/eriktorenbergPlease note that the content here is for informational purposes only; should NOT be taken as legal, business, tax, or investment advice or be used to evaluate any investment or security; and is not directed at any investors or potential investors in any a16z fund. a16z and its affiliates may maintain investments in the companies discussed. For more details please see a16z.com/disclosures.

13 Aug 15min

There’s been a wave of M&A deals lately - Meta and Scale, Windsurf and Google - and a lot of it points to something bigger: how regulation, capital, and innovation are colliding in 2025.In this episode Erik Torenberg brings together Steven Sinofsky, former Microsoft Executive and Balaji Srinivasan, founder of the Network School, and author of the Network State to break it all down. From acquihires to “acquifires,” from FTC crackdowns to the deeper battle between the state and the network, this is a sharp conversation on the future of tech and power. ResourcesFind Balaji on X: https://x.com/balajisFind Steven on X: https://x.com/stevesiLearn more about The Network State: https://thenetworkstate.comLearn more about The Network School: https://ns.com Stay Updated: Let us know what you think: https://ratethispodcast.com/a16zFind a16z on Twitter: https://twitter.com/a16zFind a16z on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/a16zSubscribe on your favorite podcast app: https://a16z.simplecast.com/Follow our host: https://x.com/eriktorenbergPlease note that the content here is for informational purposes only; should NOT be taken as legal, business, tax, or investment advice or be used to evaluate any investment or security; and is not directed at any investors or potential investors in any a16z fund. a16z and its affiliates may maintain investments in the companies discussed. For more details please see a16z.com/disclosures.

11 Aug 1h 17min

In this episode, Marc Andreessen joins TBPN for an unfiltered conversation spanning everything from ads in LLMs to why Apple’s AI strategy may be risky for anyone not named Apple.Marc breaks down the current state of AI: why open source is resurging, how foundational research is (or isn’t) turning into product, and whether we’ve hit the moment when phones start to fade as dominant platforms. He also shares his candid thoughts on Meta’s wearable wins, Vision Pro’s imperfections, and how humor and deep research are his two favorite use cases for AI today.Timecodes:0:00 Intro  2:41  The Pace of AI and Technology Cycles  4:03  Research vs. Productization in AI Companies  5:15  Apple’s Strategy: Last Mover Advantage  7:09  The Future Beyond Smartphones  10:23  Open Source AI: Progress and Challenges  13:49  Ads in AI: Business Models and User Experience  15:52  Legal Frameworks for AI and Data  17:53  Lightning Round: How Mark Uses AI  19:01  Breaking into Venture Capital in 2025  20:34  M&A, Survivorship Bias, and Company Resilience  ResourcesWatch TBPN: https://www.tbpn.com/Marc on X:   https://x.com/pmarcaMarc’s Substack: https://pmarca.substack.com/

8 Aug 37min

ChatGPT-5 just launched, marking a major milestone for OpenAI and the entire AI ecosystem.Fresh off the live stream, Erik Torenberg was joined in the studio by  three people who played key roles in making this model a reality:Christina Kim, Researcher at OpenAI, who leads the core models team on post-trainingIsa Fulford, Researcher at OpenAI, who leads deep research and the ChatGPT agent team on post-trainingSarah Wang, General Partner at a16z, who helped lead our investment in OpenAI since 2021They discuss what’s actually new in ChatGPT-5—from major leaps in reasoning, coding, and creative writing to meaningful improvements in trustworthiness, behavior, and post-training techniques.We also discuss:How GPT-5 was trained, including RL environments and why data quality matters more than everThe shift toward agentic workflows—what “agents” really are, why async matters, and how it’s empowering a new golden age of the “ideas guy”What GPT-5 means for builders, startups, and the broader AI ecosystem going forwardWhether you're an AI researcher, founder, or curious user, this is the deep-dive conversation you won't want to miss.Timecodes:0:00 ChatGPT Origins1:57 Model Capabilities & Coding Improvements4:00 Model Behaviors & Sycophancy6:15 Usage, Pricing & Startup Opportunities8:03 Broader Impact & AGI Discourse16:56 Creative Writing & Model Progress32:37 Training, Data & Reflections36:21 Company Growth & Culture41:39 Closing Thoughts & MissionResourcesFind Christina on X: https://x.com/christinahkimFind Isa on X: https://x.com/isafulfFind Sarah on X: https://x.com/sarahdingwangStay Updated: Let us know what you think: https://ratethispodcast.com/a16zFind a16z on Twitter: https://twitter.com/a16zFind a16z on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/a16zSubscribe on your favorite podcast app: https://a16z.simplecast.com/Follow our host: https://x.com/eriktorenbergPlease note that the content here is for informational purposes only; should NOT be taken as legal, business, tax, or investment advice or be used to evaluate any investment or security; and is not directed at any investors or potential investors in any a16z fund. a16z and its affiliates may maintain investments in the companies discussed. For more details please see a16z.com/disclosures

8 Aug 43min

What happens when a startup becomes a giant—and then has to reinvent itself all over again?In this episode, Martin Casado sits down with Raghu Raghuram (former CEO of VMware) and Jeetu Patel (President and CPO at Cisco) for a deep, tactical conversation on scaling, disruption, and navigating transformation from the inside. They share hard-won lessons from leading two of the most iconic infrastructure companies in tech—through waves like virtualization, cloud, containers, and now AI.They cover:How to keep innovation alive inside large companiesWhy the best companies operate with a founder’s mindset, even without foundersThe difference between selling to buyers vs. practitionersWhy the story is the strategy, and how to tell it at scaleHow Cisco is rebuilding its startup DNA in the age of AIIf you're building or leading through a major tech wave, this episode is a playbook. Timecodes:0:00 Introduction 2:02 Weapons of Mass Disruption: Abstractions, Business Models, and Cloud  5:57 Cisco’s Missed Cloud Wave & Resetting for Innovation  6:39 Operating Like a Startup: Speed, Scale, and Leadership  10:00 Go-to-Market Challenges: Fencing Off Innovation  11:04 Organic vs. Inorganic Growth: Lessons from VMware  12:04 The 10x Rule and Competing with Incumbents  14:39 Structuring for Disruption: Two-Pizza Teams and Ideal Customer Profiles  18:43 Storytelling as Strategy: Galvanizing Large Organizations  19:42 The AI Wave: Consumerization and Infrastructure Demands  25:34 Founders vs. Operators: Leading Transformations  31:47 Product-Led Organizations: From Sales to Product Focus  34:35 The Future of Infrastructure: AI, Market Size, and Vertical Integration  39:34 Timing, Market, Team, Product, Brand, and Scale  41:19 Authenticity, Opportunity, and Final Thoughts   Resources:Find Martin on X: https://x.com/martin_casadoFind Raghu on X: https://x.com/raghuraghuramFind Jeetu on X: https://x.com/jpatel41 Stay Updated: Let us know what you think: https://ratethispodcast.com/a16zFind a16z on Twitter: https://twitter.com/a16zFind a16z on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/a16zSubscribe on your favorite podcast app: https://a16z.simplecast.com/Follow our host: https://x.com/eriktorenbergPlease note that the content here is for informational purposes only; should NOT be taken as legal, business, tax, or investment advice or be used to evaluate any investment or security; and is not directed at any investors or potential investors in any a16z fund. a16z and its affiliates may maintain investments in the companies discussed. For more details please see a16z.com/disclosures.

6 Aug 42min

What really caused the breakdown between tech and media—and what comes next?Erik Torenberg sits down with Balaji Srinivasan (entrepreneur, investor, and author of The Network State) to explore the long-building conflict between Silicon Valley and legacy journalism. Balaji explains how the collapse of traditional media business models gave rise to political capture, clickbait, and adversarial coverage of the tech industry.They discuss why “going direct” is no longer optional, how tech became the villain in establishment narratives, and what it would take to build a new truth infrastructure - from decentralized content creation to cryptographic verification.This episode covers power, distribution, and the future of media, with a signature mix of historical insight, social analysis, and Balaji’s forward-looking frameworks.Timecodes: 0:00 Introduction 1:26 The Media vs. Tech Conflict2:11 The Collapse of Journalism Revenue2:39 Rise of Wokeness and Political Realignment6:50 State vs. Network: A New Framework9:00 The Power Structure of Media Institutions19:25 The Role of Distribution and the Internet29:20 The Social War: Red vs. Blue America30:05 X Day and the Shift in Social Media Power42:56 Strategies for Technologists: Go Direct48:36 The Importance of Individual Creators1:10:00 Decentralized Truth and the Ledger of Record1:36:00 The Future of Media, Democracy, and Equality1:37:08 Conclusion & Final ThoughtsResourcesFind Balaji on X: https://x.com/balajisStay Updated: Let us know what you think: https://ratethispodcast.com/a16zFind a16z on Twitter: https://twitter.com/a16zFind a16z on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/a16zSubscribe on your favorite podcast app: https://a16z.simplecast.com/Follow our host: https://x.com/eriktorenbergPlease note that the content here is for informational purposes only; should NOT be taken as legal, business, tax, or investment advice or be used to evaluate any investment or security; and is not directed at any investors or potential investors in any a16z fund. a16z and its affiliates may maintain investments in the companies discussed. For more details please see a16z.com/disclosures.

1 Aug 1h 37min

What happens when AI starts generating content for everyone—and no one wants to watch it?In this episode, MSNBC’s Chris Hayes and ad tech veteran Antonio García Martínez join a16z General Partner, Erik Torenberg to unpack the shifting economics of attention: from the rise of “AI slop” and spammy feeds to the difference between what we want to pay attention to and what platforms push on us.They explore:How AI changes what gets created and what gets seenWhy internet ads still mostly suckThe return of group chats—and the slow death of mass cultureBased on Chris’s new book The Sirens Call, this is a candid look at what AI might amplify or break in our online lives. Timecodes:0:00 Introduction 1:47 Meet the Guests: Chris Hayes & Antonio Garcia Martinez3:01 The Economics of Attention & AI Slop6:38 Acquisition vs. Retention: The Attention Challenge10:01 Fame, Identity, and Social Media Fragmentation13:21 The Group Chat Solution & Privacy16:01 Business Models, Community, and Technology19:01 Mass Culture, Fragmentation, and the Algorithm23:01 Ad Tech, Personalization, and Advertising Effectiveness29:01 The Future: AI, Growth, and Abundance Resources: Find Chris on X: https://x.com/chrislhayesFind Antonio on X: https://x.com/antoniogmLearn more about Chris’ book ‘The Sirens' Call’: https://sirenscallbook.com/Learn more about Antonio’s book ‘Chaos Monkeys’: https://www.harpercollins.com/products/chaos-monkeys-antonio-garcia-martinez?variant=32207601532962 Stay Updated: Let us know what you think: https://ratethispodcast.com/a16zFind a16z on Twitter: https://twitter.com/a16zFind a16z on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/a16zSubscribe on your favorite podcast app: https://a16z.simplecast.com/Follow our host: https://x.com/eriktorenbergPlease note that the content here is for informational purposes only; should NOT be taken as legal, business, tax, or investment advice or be used to evaluate any investment or security; and is not directed at any investors or potential investors in any a16z fund. a16z and its affiliates may maintain investments in the companies discussed. For more details please see a16z.com/disclosures.

30 Jul 41min