The Recession That Never Came: Is the US Economy Defying Gravity?

The Recession That Never Came: Is the US Economy Defying Gravity?

In this episode, Nik presents a global macro update, breaking down conflicting signals in the US economy. He starts with inflation data, a recession that never seems to come, the surging US dollar’s impact on global markets, and the signal we derive from the shape of the yield curve. He tackles the Fed's balancing act between inflation, unemployment, and market expectations, while exploring if traditional recession indicators still apply. We make sure to include a segment on the bitcoin price and implications from the upcoming US election on financial markets.

The Bitcoin Layer is a bitcoin and global macroeconomic research firm.

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The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.

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Episoder(307)

Nobody Has Ever Lost Money Holding Bitcoin Six Years

Nobody Has Ever Lost Money Holding Bitcoin Six Years

In this episode, Nik explains what he thinks is the easiest way to introduce bitcoin to new investors, which comes down to returns. He compares bitcoin against stocks, bonds, and gold across three, fi...

13 Okt 12min

Bitcoin Just Lost $82,700

Bitcoin Just Lost $82,700

In this episode, Nik covers bitcoin losing the $82,700 level he had been tracking, falling 3% for a second straight day. He explains why he is watching 71 to 74,000 as the next support, why a negative...

8 Okt 26min

Bitcoin Has A 7x To Catch Gold

Bitcoin Has A 7x To Catch Gold

In this episode, Nik walks through TBL Pulse and the macro charts he watches every day, starting with why bitcoin is climbing while liquidity drains. He explains why the TBL liquidity index has fallen...

6 Okt 21min

Bitcoin Doesn’t Care About The Bond Crisis

Bitcoin Doesn’t Care About The Bond Crisis

In this episode, Nik asks how bitcoin is outperforming both gold and the dollar in the middle of a global bond crisis. He covers why rising yields, bond volatility, and a stronger dollar all point to ...

2 Okt 14min

Europe Is About To Print

Europe Is About To Print

In this Global Macro Update, Nik covers the blowout in French government bond yields against German bunds and why he sees a sovereign debt crisis developing in France. He explains why a falling euro s...

30 Sep 21min

Bitcoin’s Volatility Is Dying (And That’s Bullish)

Bitcoin’s Volatility Is Dying (And That’s Bullish)

In this Global Macro Update, Nik walks through a chart pack of more than 100 charts, starting with the bitcoin gold ratio charging back above 20 while global bond markets remain in meltdown. He shows ...

29 Sep 48min

Central Banks Have Lost Control

Central Banks Have Lost Control

In this episode, Nik welcomes back James Van Straten of CoinDesk for a conversation on the global bond meltdown and the fiscal crisis building in the United Kingdom. James explains why he thinks centr...

25 Sep 20min

The Bear Market Is Over

The Bear Market Is Over

In this episode, Nik covers bitcoin's move to $87,000 and why breaking $82,700, the post-bear-market high from May, means the bear market that defined 2026 is over. He zooms all the way into one-minut...

21 Sep 36min

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