#238 – Sam Winter-Levy and Nikita Lalwani on how AGI won't end mutually assured destruction (probably)

#238 – Sam Winter-Levy and Nikita Lalwani on how AGI won't end mutually assured destruction (probably)

How AI interacts with nuclear deterrence may be the single most important question in geopolitics — one that may define the stakes of today’s AI race. Nuclear deterrence rests on a state’s capacity to respond to a nuclear attack with a devastating nuclear strike of its own. But some theorists think that sophisticated AI could eliminate this capability — for example, by locating and destroying all of an adversary’s nuclear weapons simultaneously, by disabling command-and-control networks, or by enhancing missile defence systems. If they are right, whichever country got those capabilities first could wield unprecedented coercive power.

Today’s guests — Nikita Lalwani and Sam Winter-Levy of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace — assess how advances in AI might threaten nuclear deterrence:

  • Would AI be able to locate nuclear submarines hiding in a vast, opaque ocean?
  • Would road-mobile launchers still be able to hide in tunnels and under netting?
  • Would missile defence become so accurate that the United States could be protected under something like Israel’s Iron Dome?
  • Can we imagine an AI cybersecurity breakthrough that would allow countries to infiltrate their rivals’ nuclear command-and-control networks?

Yet even without undermining deterrence, Sam and Nikita claim that AI could make the nuclear world far more dangerous. It could spur arms races, encourage riskier postures, and force dangerously short response times. Their message is urgent: AI experts and nuclear experts need to start talking to each other now, before the technology makes any conversation moot.


Links to learn more, video, and full transcript: https://80k.info/swlnl

This episode was recorded on November 24, 2025.

Chapters:

  • Cold open (00:00:00)
  • Who are Nikita Lalwani and Sam Winter-Levy? (00:01:03)
  • How nuclear deterrence actually works (00:01:46)
  • AI vs nuclear submarines (00:10:31)
  • AI vs road-mobile missiles (00:22:21)
  • AI vs missile defence systems (00:28:38)
  • AI vs nuclear command, control, and communications (NC3) (00:35:20)
  • AI won't break deterrence, but may trigger an arms race (00:43:27)
  • Technological supremacy isn't political supremacy (00:52:31)
  • Fast AI takeoff creates dangerous "windows of vulnerability" (00:56:43)
  • Book and movie recommendations (01:08:53)

Video and audio editing: Dominic Armstrong, Milo McGuire, Luke Monsour, and Simon Monsour
Music: CORBIT
Coordination, transcripts, and web: Nick Stockton and Katy Moore

Episoder(333)

#202 – Venki Ramakrishnan on the cutting edge of anti-ageing science

#202 – Venki Ramakrishnan on the cutting edge of anti-ageing science

"For every far-out idea that turns out to be true, there were probably hundreds that were simply crackpot ideas. In general, [science] advances building on the knowledge we have, and seeing what the n...

19 Sep 20242h 20min

#201 – Ken Goldberg on why your robot butler isn’t here yet

#201 – Ken Goldberg on why your robot butler isn’t here yet

"Perception is quite difficult with cameras: even if you have a stereo camera, you still can’t really build a map of where everything is in space. It’s just very difficult. And I know that sounds surp...

13 Sep 20242h 1min

#200 – Ezra Karger on what superforecasters and experts think about existential risks

#200 – Ezra Karger on what superforecasters and experts think about existential risks

"It’s very hard to find examples where people say, 'I’m starting from this point. I’m starting from this belief.' So we wanted to make that very legible to people. We wanted to say, 'Experts think thi...

4 Sep 20242h 49min

#199 – Nathan Calvin on California’s AI bill SB 1047 and its potential to shape US AI policy

#199 – Nathan Calvin on California’s AI bill SB 1047 and its potential to shape US AI policy

"I do think that there is a really significant sentiment among parts of the opposition that it’s not really just that this bill itself is that bad or extreme — when you really drill into it, it feels ...

29 Aug 20241h 12min

#198 – Meghan Barrett on upending everything you thought you knew about bugs in 3 hours

#198 – Meghan Barrett on upending everything you thought you knew about bugs in 3 hours

"This is a group of animals I think people are particularly unfamiliar with. They are especially poorly covered in our science curriculum; they are especially poorly understood, because people don’t s...

26 Aug 20243h 48min

#197 – Nick Joseph on whether Anthropic's AI safety policy is up to the task

#197 – Nick Joseph on whether Anthropic's AI safety policy is up to the task

The three biggest AI companies — Anthropic, OpenAI, and DeepMind — have now all released policies designed to make their AI models less likely to go rogue or cause catastrophic damage as they approach...

22 Aug 20242h 29min

#196 – Jonathan Birch on the edge cases of sentience and why they matter

#196 – Jonathan Birch on the edge cases of sentience and why they matter

"In the 1980s, it was still apparently common to perform surgery on newborn babies without anaesthetic on both sides of the Atlantic. This led to appalling cases, and to public outcry, and to campaign...

15 Aug 20242h 1min

#195 – Sella Nevo on who's trying to steal frontier AI models, and what they could do with them

#195 – Sella Nevo on who's trying to steal frontier AI models, and what they could do with them

"Computational systems have literally millions of physical and conceptual components, and around 98% of them are embedded into your infrastructure without you ever having heard of them. And an inordin...

1 Aug 20242h 8min

Populært innen Fakta

fastlegen
dine-penger-pengeradet
relasjonspodden-med-dora-thorhallsdottir-kjersti-idem
foreldreradet
treningspodden
rss-strid-de-norske-borgerkrigene
mikkels-paskenotter
rss-bisarr-historie
jakt-og-fiskepodden
sinnsyn
rss-kunsten-a-leve
rss-sunn-okonomi
hverdagspsyken
tomprat-med-gunnar-tjomlid
rss-bak-luftfarten
ukast
fryktlos
gravid-uke-for-uke
lederskap-nhhs-podkast-om-ledelse
rss-kull