Iran Conflict Brief: How Renewed Strikes Impact Global Energy

In the 23 days since the US and Iran agreed to a ceasefire, strikes have returned, following a familiar pattern: Iran attacks vessels using an internationally backed sea lane in Omani territorial waters, the US retaliates against Iranian military infrastructure, and Iran strikes back at US bases across the region. This week, alongside funeral processions for the assassinated Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, both physical and verbal attacks escalated.

Yet, both the US and Iran are still signaling they prefer diplomacy over a return to full-scale war. Despite this week's events, Brent crude oil prices are only $5 above levels that preceded the war. Some 200 million barrels of oil stranded on vessels and in storage have managed to exit the straits since late May.

But this crisis is far from over. Inventories of crude oil and oil products have been severely depleted. The trapped oil that has exited Hormuz represents only several weeks of supply, perhaps eight million barrels per day of production remain shut in, and Qatar has yet to restore its LNG production.

Today, host Daniel Sternoff sits down with Center on Global Energy Policy experts Anne-Sophie Corbeau and Karen Young to consider the near- and long-term outlook for energy markets. They discuss what's at stake for Iran, how renewed strikes impact traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, and how a sustained uptick in hostility could impact the LNG market heading into winter.

Credits: Hosted by Jason Bordoff, Bill Loveless, and Daniel Sternoff. Produced by Mary Catherine O'Connor, Caroline Pitman, and Kyu Lee. Engineering by Gregory Vilfranc.

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